This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



October 2008

Electoral College: Virginia and Colorado Blue Again

Sundays are usually slow, but we still get some action and three states moving today.

Virginia (13 ev): After just two days below the line, Obama’s lead in the five poll average in Virginia once again goes over 5%. It is still near the line, so it could go back with the next polls, but for now, Virginia is once again “Weak Obama” and no longer a swing state.

Colorado (9 ev): After five days as a swing state, Obama’s lead in Colorado also goes back over 5%. So, like Virginia, Colorado once again goes into the “Weak Obama” category and out of swing state status.

Arkansas (6 ev): The one piece of good news for McCain today. McCain’s lead in Arkansas once again goes over 10%, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. Unfortunately for John McCain, this is just a little strengthening in a state he was going to win anyway.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 306, McCain 232
Obama Best Case – Obama 393, McCain 145

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Not much new to report in terms of overall summary though.

McCain’s best case is still to win every swing state… and still lose the election.

The only things that have been changing in the analysis lately are how badly McCain loses in his best case, and just how much of a landslide Obama gets in his best case.

The “everybody gets their leans” line hasn’t moved in 11 days.


Edit 23:47 – Fixed numbers which were accidentally reversed as per comment.