This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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November 2008
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5 Minutes

ARRGGH! Tick Tock! Tick Tock!

Range of Possibilities

And of course, the numbers ACTUALLY don’t predict the everybody gets their leans numbers from the last post. They say that anything between Obama 406, McCain 132 and Obama 291, McCain 247 is very very possible.

Final Prediction

My final “everybody gets their leans” prediction before CNN starts calling states is Obama 349, McCain 189. My gut tells me that Obama will actually over-perform that. But I don’t trust my gut, I’ll stick with what the numbers tell me.

15 minutes

Until the first states are closed completely, and networks undoubtedly start calling the states that are not close. The suspense is killing me. :-)

More Logistics

If you want to see my updates as soon as I make them, refresh the Electoral College Prediction page occasionally. I will be making the changes there first, then post on the blog about them. Of course, it also takes me a few minutes to update that page fully. The chart at the top will change first. Then the table summary. Then the possible totals. Then the map. The process takes a few minutes, so during that time the various bits are out of sync with each other. Normally that doesn’t matter too much, but right now with lots of people looking, it could produce odd results. (At the moment for instance, 11 people are looking at that page.)

Actual Vote Count from Kentucky

Is staring to dribble in on CNN. So far McCain 60%, Obama 38%. Of course, that is with 0% reporting, and this is a state McCain is expected to win by a 13%+ margin according to the last polls.

But hey, actual votes!!! After two years, actual votes!!! Finally!

Drudge Exit Poll Headlines

From Drudge:

EXIT POLLS CLAIM ‘OBAMA +15’ IN PA… DEVELOPING…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH…
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ… DEVELOPING…

SENATE: DEMS SEE 58 SEATS; EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG

Of course, early exit polls are notoriously unreliable. Final exit polls usually are pretty good, however, you’ll see real results at that point.

Logistics

I won’t be quite real time when states are called by CNN. For that, watch CNN.

I’ll be posting updates to my graphs approximately every fifteen minutes or so, capturing any states that were called in the previous fifteen minutes. So, if CNN calls a bunch of states at 00:00:05 UTC… I’ll probably have the graphs up reflecting those shortly after 00:15 UTC.

Calling the Election

For all intents and purposes, Abulsme.com called the election for Obama on October 3rd when our “Best Case” for McCain was no longer to win. In the time since then, McCain has never changed that basic situation.

Because of that, today I’m also tracking McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario, where he not only wins all the swing states, but also all of Obama’s “Weak” states, leaving Obama with only the states that he is ahead by more than 10% in. In that (very unlikely) scenario, McCain would still win… 291 to 247. For purposes of tonight, I’ll “call the election” when the SuperBest scenarios for the two candidates agree with each other. Basically, that will be when we hit the point where in order to win, the losing candidate would have to start winning states the other candidate is ahead by more than 10% in.

We’ll see how long that takes.

First Polls Have Closed

Other than Dixville Notch and Hart’s Landing of course.

Parts of Indiana and Kentucky have now closed. The whole states will not be closed for another hour, so no networks will be calling them yet. But we may start to get some hints of what is happening.

An hour from now we’ll have Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia fully closed.