This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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Electoral College: Called – Indiana for Obama

This update reflects states that were called by CNN in the 15 minutes before 16:15 UTC.

A number of places called Indiana last night, but CNN just called it now, for Obama. This is the first state which has gone in a different direction than the “everybody gets their leans” numbers as of right before the polls closed. That average had McCain ahead by 3.4%. But Obama wins the state.

The range of possibilities left for the final electoral college count (absent faithless electors) is now very narrow:

McCain Best Case: Obama 349, McCain 189
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 360, McCain 178
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

North Carolina and Missouri are still too close to call.

Back to Work…

I took Monday and Tuesday off, but I was planning to go in today unless the election was still in doubt. (I’d told folks there this in advance.) But, it is not in doubt, so even though there are three states outstanding, I’ll head into work momentarily. I have to take Amy to school, so I’ll be a little late to our all hands, but I’ll go.

I’ll try to periodically check CNN to note when they call the remaining three states, assuming it even happens today. But if any of you notice CNN calling Missouri, Indiana or North Carolina, can you drop me a quick line saying when you first saw which state? I was to be able to adjust my charts accordingly… Oh crap… Indiana just called for Obama.

Well, what I just said for Missouri and North Carolina.

Let me know if you see them flip, and I’ll update the charts to reflect the correct time of the change.

We were about to run out the door, but let me see if I can adjust Indiana real quick…

Iowa Was the Wrong Color

A reader pointed out overnight that Iowa was the wrong color. Apparently in my 04:45 update, my paint tool went astray. All the numbers were correct, but Iowa was the wrong color. It has been fixed now in the main page, and on the last post I made for the 08:15 UTC update last night. The incorrect maps still appear on the 04:45, 06:45 and 07:30 updates, but I have added a note about the error. Boy is my face (like Iowa was not) red. Anyway, fixed now, and thank you for the reader that pointed it out.

Still waiting for Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina. All are slow due to counting of provisional and absentee ballots and such, which are numerous enough to potentially change the outcome. I wish they would hurry though! I have other things to do!

Oh, and here is the updated map with Iowa fixed:

Ten

It is 10:00 UTC. Ten hours after the first states got called. We are still waiting for three. Don’t know why they are taking so long, but I think I need to try to nap at least a little bit. Just watch though, 10 minutes after I decide to put my head on a pillow, they’ll start calling states again, and that would annoy me. I’ll try to check on the status of those three states periodically while I sleep, but I’m not sure how well that will work.

In the mean time, I’ll leave you with this:

Three Out Of Three

Just need to say, I called three out of three back on January 3rd on the eve of the Iowa caucuses. Got the Republican nominee. Got the Democratic nominee. Got the General Election winner.

And I think my reasons for calling each of the three were pretty spot on with what actually happened too.

And I didn’t remember this until I looked at it again just now, but I called Biden as Obama’s VP as well.

Go me!

My Old Counties

Places I have lived:

King County, WA (2006-Present): Obama
Brevard County, FL (2004-2006): McCain
Bucks County, PA (2003-2004): Obama
Middlesex County, NJ (1997-2003): Obama
Alexandria, VA (1995-1997): Obama
Allegheny County, PA (1989-1995): Obama
Frederick County, MD (1984-1989): McCain
Durham County, NC (1973,1976-1982,1983-1984): Obama
Washington, DC (1983): Obama
Marion County, IN (1982): Obama
Dane County, WI (1971-1973): Obama

Two of these things are not like the others.

Why Won’t CNN Call Them?

Missouri is at 100% reporting (McCain winning)

North Carolina is at 100% reporting (Obama winning)

Indiana is at 99% reporting (Obama winning)

Call them already damn it. I want to go to sleep. :-)

Electoral College: Called – Montana for McCain

This update covers the 15 minutes prior to 08:15 UTC.

Montana gets called for McCain. The range of possible results narrows a bit more.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

If one sticks to one common definition of landslide, namely 375 electoral votes or more, Obama now needs to sweep the remaining three states for this to be a “landslide”. Of course, there is no single accepted definition of landslide, and some people will be calling this such regardless.

Still waiting on North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. Still no deviations from the predictions this site had with the “everybody gets their leans” line immediately before the polls closed.

Of course, various places are now calling Indiana for Obama. If CNN eventually decides to agree, that will be the first deviation from predictions, as the five poll average here had McCain again by 3.4% heading into the election.

Edit 09:24 UTC – Added the slug about the time the update covered, which I had forgotten when I originally posted.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa was the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page and on this post but not on the two older posts that were effected. (Although I have added notes on those posts about the error.) Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Indiana heading toward Blue…

Various places online are calling Indiana for Obama. Since I’m going by CNN, I’m still waiting for them to do so before I update my charts…

Dancing in the Streets

I’m not going to post links to all of them, but as I keep watching my various Google News feeds, I’m seeing pictures of massive spontaneous street parties in cities across the country. Just masses of people taking to the streets and celebrating. All in blue areas of the country no doubt. And I’m sure things look and feel much different in the deep red areas, or even in the swing states. But it is still remarkable.

Apparently here in Seattle is no exception, and downtown has been going nuts.

On our street in the suburbs, despite Obama signs in many windows, it is quite quiet.

Of course, it is almost midnight in the suburbs and all.