This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



November 2008

Electoral College: On Election Eve, North Carolina Flips to McCain

This is the last regularly scheduled daily update, so I am including the map even though it has not changed today. Starting in just over 2 hours, at 00:00 UTC, I’ll start doing updates as soon as I get them if there are any remaining last minute polls, and starting in just over 24 hours when we start getting actual results I will make changes reflecting those results. I’ll be “calling” states based on when CNN calls them.

But for today, there is only one change.

North Carolina (15 ev): Since the end of September, Obama’s lead in North Carolina in my five poll average has ranged from 0% to 3.5%. It has always been very close though. Today, for the first time in a month, the five poll average moves to the McCain side of the fence. So the state moves from “Lean Obama” to “Lean McCain”. As usual, I will caution that the true condition of North Carolina (and all of the swing states) is “too close to call”, and being slightly on one side of the line vs slightly on the other side of the line, is not really a significant difference in where the state is.

New summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 278, McCain 260
Obama Best Case – Obama 406, McCain 132

If everybody gets their leans – 338 Obama, 200 McCain

So, once again, and for the last time before election day… if John McCain gets all of the states he is ahead in, plus all of Obama’s lean states… he still loses.

However, it must be said that it certainly does appear to be the case that McCain has had some momentum over the last week or so. He has pulled several “Lean” states from Obama’s side to his side. As we keep saying, they are still all too close to call, but it does make the task of McCain winning “all the swing states” seem a bit easier. He now only had to pull three more states from Obama’s side (Florida, Ohio and Virginia) to accomplish that goal.

Of course, that still would not be enough. Which is where McCain’s Pennsylvania gambit comes in. As of today in the last five poll average, Obama is ahead by 8.8%. If there is more tightening there than the polls are showing, because of a Bradley effect or anything else, and McCain can somehow pull out a win in Pennsylvania, after already sweeping all of the swing states, then he could pull it off. His other paths involve a combination of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, but those seem less likely.

There is still not a path for victory for McCain in these numbers.

If I had to make a guess based on the polling pattern of the past two weeks rather than just trusting my numbers completely and going for the “everybody gets their leans” results, I would say that the final result will be closer to McCain’s best case than Obama’s best case.

On the other hand, the reports of super high early voting turnout which is leaning democratic, plus the massive Democratic Get Out the Vote effort this year, and the “enthusiasm gap”, and some last minute one off polls showing Alaska and Louisiana close… which are probably outliers… but… all of those things would lead me to guess something closer to Obama’s best case.

And well, since there are conflicting reasons to go one way or another, I’ll stick with the numbers. If I had to make a prediction, I’d use the “everybody gets their leans” numbers. Obama 338, McCain 200.

But I don’t really want to be nailed down that way either. So as a final prediction, I’ll just say that I’m pretty confident that the final result will be somewhere between the “Obama Best Case” and “McCain Best Case” I have outlined above.

Which means an Obama win.

We shall see if I am right. Election day coverage on starts shortly.

Obama’s Grandmother is Dead

According to MSNBC breaking news. It would have been nice for her to be able to make it another 48 hours. (Assuming Obama wins.)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Waiting for the Fat Lady

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Ivan’s Econ Update
  • Energy Independence
  • McCain on SNL
  • Foiled Assassination Plots
  • Obama’s Extended Family
  • Creepy Cindy
  • Third Parties
  • Campaign Coverage
  • Pennsylvania Gambit
  • Negotiating with Enemies
  • Election Status State by State
  • How McCain Could Win
  • Election Nerves
  • Election Night States to Watch

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes

View in iTunes

Podcast XML Feed

Electoral Contest Thingy

I just put in my entry at Brendan Loy’s Electoral College Contest. I of course based my entry on my own Electoral College Predictions. Specifically, based on my November 2nd update. I won’t be doing the November 3rd update until after his deadline. I won’t reveal my exact methods in picking my answers for the tiebreaker questions though. :-)

My gut though is telling me that Obama will actually do better than the “everybody gets their leans” line that I used to enter the contest. But I felt like I was honor bound to go by what my numbers are telling me, rather than what my gut is telling me. :-)

If anybody else wants to enter Brendan’s contest you have until Noon Eastern (17 UTC). Instructions for entering can be found at the link above.

I think if you win you get a mug saying you won the contest or some such, but I could be wrong. :-)

Testing Curmudgeon’s Corner Live

We probably won’t do this on a regular basis, because it is looking to be somewhat of a pain. However, Ivan and I are recording this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner NOW. If you wish to watch live, it will be below…

Live TV : Ustream

(Click through on the above and you’ll get a little chat room to talk to us too.)

Edit 04:27 UTC – Live event is now over.

McCain Win Scenarios maps them out. As of today, they put the odds of one of these happening at 6.3%. Or about 1 in 16.

Thirty Five Questions on the Ballot

OK, in UTC terms it is now the day before election day. I have taken both today and tomorrow off of work. So it is now time to start working through the ballot. There are 35 items. The Presidential race is #12. As I do this, I will, as usual, post my thoughts and votes. I hope to space this out a bit and finish sometime Monday, so I’m not rushing through anything on Tuesday. Of course, if history is any guide, I’ll be rushing to finish and get it turned in on time.