This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



September 2012

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-21 (UTC)

  • Reading – Checking Rove’s math (KosFollow) #
  • Actually, X-Reay results came back. Looks like the kidney stone I suspected after all. Not the gastro thing the doctor thought. Still fun! #
  • Reading – Apple Knows Apple Maps Suck Right Now But Says It’ll Get Better (Casey Chan) #
  • RT @usernamenuse @abulsme yeah, really SOUNDS like fun…. #
  • .@usernamenuse Fun in the absolute best sense of the word. But hey, cool pain killers. :-) #
  • .@abulsme X-Reay? #NotActuallyOnPainKillersRightNowReally #
  • Reading – What Would Happen if Mitt Romney Dropped Out Now? (Paul Constant) #
  • RT @JoeMuto: CW hardening — Obama re-elect hits 70% on Intrade: #
  • RT @wsdot: Although #ios6 may say differently, we can assure you that the Tacoma Narrows Bridges have not melted: #
  • Reading – Good Signs All Around
    (Josh Marshall) #
  • Reading – New York Times bans ‘after-the-fact’ quote approval (Jim Romenesko) #
  • RT @kkondik: Election, if it tightens, probably comes down to this – Romney needs to win OH, VA or WI. O currently up by 4.5+ in all 3 #
  • Reading – Poll Analysis: A not-so-good week for Romeny (Darryl, HorsesAss) #
  • RT @jamisonfoser: I mean, honestly. Think for half a second: “Is what I’m about to say really stupid?” If the answer is “yes,” don’t say it. #
  • Reading – Mitt says Obama threw in ‘white flag’ on changing Washington (Jonathan Martin) #
  • Wait, no TbT on the 4? No point then. Reading – How the iPhone 4 Displays Map Directions in iOS 6 (Jordan Golson) #
  • RT @joshtpm: I’m with Buzzfeed and Politico: Mitt is going to ride “No We Can’t” right to the White Hosue. #theawesome #obamadownfall #
  • Reading – Obama’s latest `gaffe’: Vowing to engage more Americans in the political process (Greg Sargent) #
  • RT @dangillmor: Is Apple’s iOS maps decision is the first major consumer-facing choice Tim Cook has made? #
  • RT @DannyZuker: You cad now sand tweets wet Siri. Intact I’m using at write nod! #
  • Grrr… Reading – iOS 6 users lose Bluetooth audio track listings and control features after update (Bryan Bishop) #
  • BTW, haven’t upgraded my iPhone 4 yet. Recent upgrades my policy to wait until the phone prompts me rather than rush as soon as possible. #
  • Reading – Let those global warming dollars flow (Phil Plait) #
  • Also, I almost never used the Maps app. Used Waze or Garmin for TbT. Was looking forward to new Maps for TBT. Will stick with Waze I guess. #
  • Reading – What working class whites really think about dependency and redistribution (Greg Sargent) #
  • Reading – How Bad Is Apple’s iOS6 Maps Disaster? (Carl Franzen) #
  • Reading – Why Presidents Love Foreign Affairs (Daniel W. Drezner) #
  • MT @electionate: Signals are mixed on CO and IA is seriously underpolled. But remember that CO/IA/NH/NV allows an O victory without FL/OH/VA #
  • Reading – The WELL is bought by its users
    (Cory Doctorow) #
  • RT @xeni: If socialized medicine is a communist plot, man, pass the fucking hammer and sickle. I am so on board with that shit. #
  • Reading – Romney is losing the argument over the economy (Greg Sargent) #
  • MT @delrayser: Didn’t take long for Romney camp to go frm “U need 2 watch entire 50 min video” 2 “Here’s half of one sentence Obama said!” #
  • Good Analysis on why it ain’t over -> Reading – State of the Race, Part 2: Why Romney Wins (Sean Trende) #
  • MT @anamariecox: Clearly the main problem with Romney’s electoral map is iOS 6. #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney: The GOP’s Very Best (Kevin Drum) #
  • EC Update for Fri Sep 21 done. Polls added in MA PA MI FL CO WI CT NV IA VA. Category change in CT. Blog post soon. #
  • Reading – Factions, Coalitions, and the Two Party System (Bruce, The Contrarian Conformist) #
  • Reading – There Go the Undecided Voters (Larry Bartels) #
  • Reading – Why all that money won’t save Mitt Romney (Jamelle Bouie) #
  • Reading – Be More Cynical! (Kevin Drum) #
  • MT @dangillmor: Cook said Jobs urged him to ignore “what would Steve do” strategies. iOS Maps are evidence that he took advice seriously. #

Electoral College: Connecticut Gets Bluer

Only one status change today, as Obama’s lead in Connecticut tops 10% in the five poll average.

On August 30th Obama’s lead in Connecticut dipped slightly below 10% in my five poll average. With the first new poll in the state since then, the average pops back above 10% to 11.4%. So I once again classify Connecticut as “Strong Obama”. While the last poll is quite a bit higher than anything seen before and may be an outlier, the five poll average has been over 10% for almost all of the last year, so this is probably more representative of the “normal” status for Connecticut.

Of course, no matter if Obama’s lead in the state is a little more than 10%, or a little less than 10%, Connecticut isn’t even close to being a state that could go either way. Connecticut is not in contention. It is going to be an Obama state this cycle. So the model summary does not change:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 278 260
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 180 358

Not much else to say this time around. Obama increasing his lead in Connecticut doesn’t change the state of the race. There are now tons of new polls every day though, so keep tuned, there will undoubtidly be more changes to the core “Lean” and “Weak” states soon enough.

Most polls are still of the Lean Obama and Weak Obama states though. This is natural, as these are the states that will end up closest to the 269 electoral vote line if you ordered them by support levels, but it would be nice to get a few more polls on the Weak Romney states to see if Obama is gaining ground there too, or if those states are consolidating for Romney.

Maybe there will be some of those polls soon.

Note: Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

Edit 2012 Sep 22 23:51 to add final note.