This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



September 2012

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-16 (UTC)

  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Sometimes you need to take a moment to just relax #
  • Reading – iPhone 5 Pre-Order Sells Out 20X Faster Than 4 And 4S, Highlighting Apple’s Dominance (Billy Gallagher) #
  • MT @ppppolls: Possible we won’t poll PA again until last week before election when we poll everything- wouldn’t have expected that year ago #
  • MT @dangillmor: Google: no to WH video takedown request Too bad Visa PayPal et al didn’t show same courage re Wikileaks #
  • RT @brendanbaker: This is perhaps the most exciting chart for anyone building new products, or funding them. #
  • RT @daveweigel: RT @PatrickRuffini: Raise your hand if you think a sequester wouldn’t be so bad. #
  • RT @noeljackson: Ugh – can we just call it for Obama now and find more productive / entertaining ways to occupy time until Nov. 6? #
  • Reading – Romney Death Spiral Beginning? (Ben Jacobs) #
  • RT @DouthatNYT: Seems like there’s a big difference between being behind in the polls and being in a “death spiral”: #
  • MT @DouthatNYT: R’s pos is slightly better than Kerry’s at the same point in 2004: Was Kerry in a “death spiral”? No. #
  • RT @DouthatNYT: Like Kerry at this point in ’04, Romney is on track to lose. But like Kerry, he’s still very much in contention. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: To win in November, Romney has to do a bit better than he is currently. Or run into some good luck. #boring #accurate #
  • Reading – A solar eclipse… FROM MARS! (Phil Plait) #
  • RT @owillis: i keep seeing cons says they expect undecideds to break for the challenger. im sure president kerry agrees. cmon, guys. #
  • Reading – The Foreign Relations Fumbler (Nicholas D. Kristof) #
  • RT @dandrezner: Ouch, @NickKristof: “Mhe essential problem is that every time Romney touches FP, he breaks things.” #
  • MT @philipsturner: @jricole: ‘Obama Plays Hardball&Morsi Folds’ I had same thought, the ‘ally’ stiff arm was no gaffe. #
  • Reading – Obama Plays Hardball and Egypt’s Morsi Folds (Juan Cole) #
  • Reading – Drone Flying Over Washington, D.C., Neighborhood Goes Missing (Ritika Singh) #
  • Reading – In-Person Voter Fraud: Not Really a Matter of Opinion (Kevin Drum) #
  • Reading – The Obama Turnaround (Drew, Votamatic) #
  • Reading – The Obama campaign takes on the `are you better off’ question (Greg Sargent) #
  • RT @AntDeRosa: “You guys know YouTube has a comment section right?” – Seth Meyers on Muslim protests #snl #
  • Reading – My Problem With Rasmussen (Andrew Sullivan) #
  • Reading – Twitter Might Be Looking To Kill Off Third Party Image Hosts (Eric Limer) #
  • Reading – Party polarization as seen through two Romney gaffes (Seth Masket) #
  • Reading – They have to go all in on every front—class warfare, culture, and foreign policy. (Michael Tomasky) #
  • Reading – If Bush Had Said That About Egypt (Michael Tomasky) #
  • Finished recording CC for this week. I will get it out later in the week as time allows. #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @AlexNBCNews: Ambassador Rice on #MTP calls Romney’s reaction to attacks in Libya/Egypt a “vacuous charge of weakness” #
  • Watching – Obama vs Romney Cold Open (SNL) #
  • EC Update for Sun Sep 16 Done. New poll added for MI. Also added older NV poll I’d missed. MI changes status. Blog post soon. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: A fifty-something couple with a $200,000 household income and a single 29 year-old with the same income aren’t the same. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: A friend went from a top-tier Philosophy PhD program to a hedge fund: Overnight transformation from lower to upper class? #
  • RT @morganwarstler: @abulsme we treat them the same, because @mattyglesias will fuck up deciding what to value. @mattyglesias is the reason #
  • MT @ggreenwald: Often out of the same mouth: 1-Free speech doesn’t extend to advocating violence; 2-I want my country to attack & bomb them #

Electoral College: Michigan Gets Closer Again

So that didn’t last long. Three days ago Michigan topped a 5% Obama lead in my five poll average… just barely, at 5.1%. Now with a new poll, that drops back down to 4.4%. So, once again, I consider Michigan in the “could go either way” category.

We’re still right around my arbitrary 5% line, so the next poll could easily move this back above 5%. Or of course it could move things further in Romney’s direction. For the moment though, back to being close enough that we consider it within the realm of possibility that Romney takes the state in November.

Having said that, although a few individual polls have shown Romney ahead, at no time in the last year has Romney been ahead in Michigan in the five poll average. This is not one of the “closest of the close” states where the lead has gone back and forth all year. This is a state that is relatively close, but Obama has been ahead all along.

With Michigan now once again included in Romney’s best case, the new summary is:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 301 237
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 180 358

So pretty much where we’ve been for awhile: Obama with a substantial lead. Romney still able to win if he sweeps almost all of the close states, most of which he is currently behind in.

To win Romney needs something big that changes the dynamics of the race. More of the same from both sides just ends up with a fairly comfortable Obama win.

Note: Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.