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November 2012

Electoral College: 02:45 – Pennsylvania goes Blue, Romney’s paths drying up

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 274 264
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 190 348

There were no states called between 02:15 UTC and 02:30 UTC, but one big update between 02:30 UTC and 02:45 UTC…

Pennsylvania goes for Obama.  This makes Romney’s path to win from the remaining states very very difficult… close to impossible.  Let’s look:

With the areas he is ahead by more than 5% in, Romney starts out at 190 electoral votes.  Then we have the areas he is ahead in:

  • Nebraska 2nd (1): 3.8% Romney lead
  • North Carolina (15): 1.4% Romney lead

That gets Romney to 206 electoral votes.  Then the remaining close states:

  • Iowa (6): 2.0% Obama lead
  • Florida (29): 2.3% Obama lead
  • Colorado (9): 2.4% Obama lead
  • New Hampshire (4): 2.8% Obama lead
  • Maine 2nd (1): 2.8% Obama lead
  • Virginia (13): 3.6% Obama lead
  • Nevada (6): 4.8% Obama lead

If Romney wins ALL of those states, he gets to a 274 to 264 win over Obama.  He has 5 electoral votes to spare.  He can afford to lose New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd, which would give him a 269-269 tie, which would probably result in a Romney/Biden administration.  But he can’t afford to lose ANY of the other remaining states.

The tipping point is now Nevada.  Obama was ahead by 4.8% in my five poll average in Nevada.

This is almost over.  Romney sweeping all of those states is basically inconceivable.

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