This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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Electoral College: 06:15 – Alaska for Romney, Only Florida Left

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 235 303
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 206 332

I needed to pause to take my wife to the airport, so I couldn’t make this update earlier, but shortly after 06:00 UTC, Alaska was called for Romney.

This means so far the five poll average has called 54/54 contests.  Only Florida is left.  Even if it ends up missing on Florida, that is pretty good… It is better than it did four years ago.

If I do this again in four years, I may end up doing some things differently based on things I’ve learned this time around, but for the most part I’d say this exercise has been a success.  And lots of fun, if somewhat exhausting in the last month.

I have no idea if Florida will end up being called in the next few hours, or if it will end up going almost 15 days like Missouri did in 2008.

Given that, I think it is time to call it a night.  I’ll do another update sometime after Florida is called, although it may not be immediate given I’ll now start spending time on non-election things as well.  :-)

Thanks again for following my coverage this year.  It has been a blast!

Electoral College: 06:00 – Nebraska’s remaining congressional districts to Romney

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 235 303
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 206 332

The two remaining Nebraska congressional districts were called for Romney shortly before 06:00 UTC.

As of then, that left Alaska and Florida outstanding, but only Florida was ever really in question.

And this wraps up the live coverage of Election 2012 from Abulsme.com.  I have to take my wife to the airport now.

Alaska was actually called for Romney already, and I’ll include that in a 6:15 update when I get back.

And then we wait for Florida to tell us if we do indeed end up at the magical 332-206, or if we end up at 303 to 235 instead.

I’ll make a final update once the results in Florida are known.

And then a really final update once the electoral college votes in December, just in case there are any faithless electors.

But for now, thanks for joining Abulsme.com for the election coverage all year long.

Sam out.

Electoral College: 05:45 – Virginia also for Obama

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 235 303
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 205 333

The five poll average’s streak continues.

Electoral College: 05:30 – Colorado and Maine 2nd for Obama too

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 248 290
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 205 333

Colorado and Maine’s 2nd also go to Obama.  Still haven’t missed one.

Electoral College: 05:00 – Nevada to Obama too

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 258 280
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 205 333

At 04:49 UTC CNN called Nevada for Obama.  The five poll average still hasn’t missed, but there are still a few states left.

Electoral College: 04:30 – Expected States push Obama over 270

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 264 274
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 205 333

Between 04:15 and 04:30 UTC, three more states were called.  Missouri for Romney, and Oregon and Ohio for Obama.  All three of these were fully expected, but Ohio put Obama over 270.

CNN waited until they called Ohio at 04:18 UTC to call the election, even though based on the polls by the time we got to election day, Ohio wasn’t even close.  Once Iowa was called 9 minutes earlier, Romney had no more ways to win.

At this point, the only question is the margin of Obama’s victory.

As of this update, the five poll average hasn’t missed a state yet.  Four states and two congressional districts to go.

(Of the close ones…  there is also Alaska and Nebraska’s 3rd, but those will certainly go to Romney.)

Edit 2012 Nov 7 05:13 to add that last parenthetical note.

Electoral College: 04:15 – Romney’s Paths Gone, Obama Wins!

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 264 274
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 205 333

A bunch of states were called between 04:00 UTC and 04:15 UTC:

  • Obama: CA, HA, WA, WI, IA NM
  • Romney: ID, MT, NC

Only one of these mattered.  Iowa.  Iowa was a close state.  Romney needed every close state he had left in order to win.  Without Iowa, even if Romney swept every other close state (and Maine’s 2nd) he would only get to 264.

When CNN called Iowa at 04:09 UTC, I called the race on twitter in these two tweets.  Nine minutes later when some more states came in, CNN called the election for Obama.  They were slow.  More on those next states in the next update.

Anyway, Obama wins reelection!

Electoral College: 04:00 – Some Expected States

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 270 268
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 190 348

With this update, there are no surprises, and no close states called, so Romney hangs on to his one glimmer of hope…

But the 04:15 update is coming soon, and the news is not good for Romney…

Electoral College: 03:15 – New Hampshire to Obama, Romney’s paths almost gone

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 270 268
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 190 348

There were no calls between 02:45 UTC and 03:00 UTC.  Between 03:00 UTC and 03:15 UTC Utah was called for Romney, and New Hampshire was called for Obama.  New Hampshire is of course the one that matters.  It was one of the close states that Romney really could have used…

Romney’s best case is now hanging on to a win by the barest possible margin.  He can afford to lose Maine’s 2nd congressional district, making this a 269-269 tie, which would give us Romney/Biden.  But he can’t lose ANY of the other close states…  unless he pulls a big surprise and wins a state where he was behind by more than 5% in the polls.

Starting at 190 with the areas he was ahead by more than 5%:

  • Nebraska 2nd (1): 3.8% Romney lead
  • North Carolina (15): 1.4% Romney lead

That gets Romney to 206.  Then we have:

  • Iowa (6): 2.0% Obama lead
  • Florida (29): 2.3% Obama lead
  • Colorado (9): 2.4% Obama lead
  • Maine 2nd (1): 2.8% Obama lead
  • Virginia (13): 3.6% Obama lead
  • Nevada (6): 4.8% Obama lead

The only thing on that list Romney can afford to lose is Maine’s 2nd.

We only need any one of those remaining states called for Obama, and Obama wins his second term.

Electoral College: 02:45 – Pennsylvania goes Blue, Romney’s paths drying up

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 274 264
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 190 348

There were no states called between 02:15 UTC and 02:30 UTC, but one big update between 02:30 UTC and 02:45 UTC…

Pennsylvania goes for Obama.  This makes Romney’s path to win from the remaining states very very difficult… close to impossible.  Let’s look:

With the areas he is ahead by more than 5% in, Romney starts out at 190 electoral votes.  Then we have the areas he is ahead in:

  • Nebraska 2nd (1): 3.8% Romney lead
  • North Carolina (15): 1.4% Romney lead

That gets Romney to 206 electoral votes.  Then the remaining close states:

  • Iowa (6): 2.0% Obama lead
  • Florida (29): 2.3% Obama lead
  • Colorado (9): 2.4% Obama lead
  • New Hampshire (4): 2.8% Obama lead
  • Maine 2nd (1): 2.8% Obama lead
  • Virginia (13): 3.6% Obama lead
  • Nevada (6): 4.8% Obama lead

If Romney wins ALL of those states, he gets to a 274 to 264 win over Obama.  He has 5 electoral votes to spare.  He can afford to lose New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd, which would give him a 269-269 tie, which would probably result in a Romney/Biden administration.  But he can’t afford to lose ANY of the other remaining states.

The tipping point is now Nevada.  Obama was ahead by 4.8% in my five poll average in Nevada.

This is almost over.  Romney sweeping all of those states is basically inconceivable.