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Electoral College: Trump loses ground in Missouri

States with new poll data since the last update: New Hampshire, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Texas, Virginia, Washington, New York, Michigan, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Mississippi

The Trump deterioration continues. This time in the form of weakening in Missouri:

chart (128)

The range in Missouri results is large in the 1.2 months of polling currently used in the average… from Trump up by 10%, to Clinton up by 1%. But the last four polls before the end of the Republican convention all showed Trump up by more than 5%. The three polls taken after the Republican convention ended have all been worse for Trump.

So Trump’s lead in the poll average drops to 4.8%, and Missouri moves from “Strong Trump” to “Weak Trump”. Trump is still ahead, but it is now close enough that we allow the possibility of Clinton winning Missouri in her “best case”.

chart (129)

Clinton’s best case is now to win 384 to 154, a 230 electoral vote margin. This is the best number Clinton has seen on this metric aside from a two day period in June where Texas looked close for a moment.

Trump may stop sliding in the polls, or maybe even reverse the trend, but we’re not seeing that yet. For the moment, his collapse continues.

82.3 days until polls start to close on election day.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

ALeXMXeLA Episode 100!!

We have just posted the 100th episode to Alex’s YouTube channel. You can watch above, or go to ALeXMXeLA.com to subscribe. He decided not to do anything special for the 100th episode other than continuing to play through the Portal 2 Community Test Chamber series called “Into the Multiverse” that we were in the middle of. You can watch all of our play through of this series that has been published so far here.

He continues to record new episodes faster than I have been able to push them out to YouTube. Episode 100 was recorded way back on May 29th. The most recent episode, recorded this Tuesday, will be Episode 240 when I eventually get around to getting it posted…

He has 25 subscribers now and is very serious about his channel. He may only be six, but he knows what he wants!

Subscribe and tell your friends to subscribe too! :-)

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-17 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-17 (UTC)

  • 05:37:13 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in FL from 2016-08-12 to 2016-08-15 – Clinton 48% to Trump 39% https://t.co/BE8ReozKfr
  • 05:37:18 Full 4P results logged: Monmouth w/4P in FL from 2016-08-12 to 2016-08-15 – Clinton 48% to Trump 39% to Johnson 6% to Stein 1%
  • 05:44:26 Poll Added: PPP w/4P in TX from 2016-08-12 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 38% to Trump 44% https://t.co/AwDCF3Ot8f
  • 05:44:31 Full 4P results logged: PPP w/4P in TX from 2016-08-12 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 38% to Trump 44% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 05:46:48 Poll Added: PPP in TX from 2016-08-12 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 44% to Trump 50% https://t.co/GaB5ND7Fml
  • 05:50:40 Note that PPP w/4P result in TX actually also included McMullin as a 5th choice. He got 0%.
  • 05:54:23 Full 4P results logged: PPP w/4P in TX from 2016-08-12 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 38% to Trump 47% to Nuts 3% to Harambe 2%
  • 05:55:49 Note I only am only using Johnson and Stein 4P results in the averages, not Nuts and Harambe.
  • 06:16:35 Poll Added: WaPo RV in VA from 2016-08-11 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 52% to Trump 38% https://t.co/IUMCMs0cfB
  • 06:18:52 Poll Added: WaPo LV in VA from 2016-08-11 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 51% to Trump 43% https://t.co/I3yzqoCzRI
  • 06:18:59 Clinton vs Trump state category change: VA has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/I3yzqoCzRI
  • 06:21:34 Poll Added: WaPo RV w/4P in VA from 2016-08-11 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 45% to Trump 34% https://t.co/PdicTfHpDu
  • 06:21:39 Full 4P results logged: WaPo RV w/4P in VA from 2016-08-11 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 45% to Trump 34% to Johnson 11% to Stein 4%
  • 06:23:19 Poll Added: WaPo LV w/4P in VA from 2016-08-11 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 46% to Trump 39% https://t.co/WSahdXFcEW
  • 06:23:24 Full 4P results logged: WaPo LV w/4P in VA from 2016-08-11 to 2016-08-14 – Clinton 46% to Trump 39% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 06:35:35 Poll Added: Elway RV w/4P in WA from 2016-08-09 to 2016-08-13 – Clinton 43% to Trump 24% https://t.co/AED8r6WVzY
  • 06:35:40 Full 4P results logged: Elway RV w/4P in WA from 2016-08-09 to 2016-08-13 – Clinton 43% to Trump 24% to Johnson 7% to Stein 4%
  • 06:37:28 Poll Added: Elway LV in WA from 2016-08-09 to 2016-08-13 – Clinton 45% to Trump 24% https://t.co/8pucr3XBSN
  • 07:22:08 Poll Added: Siena in NY from 2016-08-07 to 2016-08-10 – Clinton 57% to Trump 27% https://t.co/PSxrdQWcdp
  • 07:23:44 Poll Added: Siena w/4P in NY from 2016-08-07 to 2016-08-10 – Clinton 50% to Trump 25% https://t.co/qbwYE4Hima
  • 07:23:49 Full 4P results logged: Siena w/4P in NY from 2016-08-07 to 2016-08-10 – Clinton 50% to Trump 25% to Johnson 9% to Stein 6%
  • 07:40:19 Poll Added: Mitchell w/4P in MI from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-15 – Clinton 49% to Trump 39% https://t.co/yHbZL55Fq4
  • 07:40:24 Full 4P results logged: Mitchell w/4P in MI from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-15 – Clinton 49% to Trump 39% to Johnson 9% to Stein 5%
  • 08:09:45 That is all for today. New polls in FL/TX/VA/WA/NY/MI. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-17 (UTC)