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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Needed New Swear Words

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner most of the show is of course on Election 2016… some talk about the Clinton foundation and lots and lots of discussion of all the twists and turns in Trump world this week. But hey, almost half the show is actually on other things! We talk about those swimmers getting in trouble in Brazil, about Iran and Syria, about self-driving cars, about Obamacare, and even about adjustable beds! Also, a short remembrance of John McLaughlin and what he meant to this show. Enjoy!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-08-19

Length this week – 2:12:32

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:16:14) But First
    • Agenda
    • Adjustable Bed
    • Upgraded Podcast Setup
    • Sam Trip Coming Up
    • John McLaughlin
  • (0:16:58-0:40:04) Stuff that isn’t the Election Part 1
    • Swimmers in Brazil
    • Omran from Syria
    • Iran Payment
  • (0:41:07-0:57:29) Stuff that isn’t the Election Part 2
    • Uber Self-Driving Ride Sharing
    • Aetna and Obamacare
  • (0:58:49-1:33:08) Stuff that is the Election Part 1
    • ALeXMXeLA.com
    • Clinton Foundation
    • Clinton the politician
    • Naked Trump Statues
    • Manafort!
    • Trump Campaign Morale
    • Trump Campaign Restructure
    • Pivot?
    • Alex texting
  • (1:34:16-2:12:12) Stuff that is the Election Part 2
    • Will it last?
    • Trump supporter denial
    • Election Observers
    • Ivanka Trump and Wendy Murdoch
    • Trump’s Doctor’s Note
    • Trump vs the Press
    • Trump TV

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

Electoral College: Georgia Red Again (Barely)

States with new poll data since the last update: Georgia, Nevada

For the first time this month, we have a categorization change that goes in Trump’s direction. This time it is in Georgia:

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With new polling, two of the three results showing a Clinton lead in Georgia roll off the average, replaced by results showing Trump ahead. The average in the state moves to a 0.4% Trump lead. This is an incredibly narrow lead. Georgia really could go either way. But for the moment, Georgia is once again on the more familiar red side of the center line.

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With this, the “expected” result, where each candidate just wins all the states they are ahead in, returns to Clinton 347 to Trump 191, a 156 electoral vote win for Clinton. Still clearly in the zone where Trump does better than McCain (192 electoral vote loss) but worse than Romney (126 electoral vote loss).

Does this indicate Trump has bottomed and is now on the rebound? Well… Georgia is a state that has looked close for months. The polls bounce around quite a bit. A move from a 0.8% Clinton lead to a 0.4% Trump lead may not be super significant. It may flip back with the very next poll. So as usual, use caution in interpreting a move like this. If it is followed up by more good news for Trump, then we can start talking about a Trump rebound. For now, that is still premature.

81.1 days left until the polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-19 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-19 (UTC)

  • 20:00:36 Poll Added: Opinion Savvy w/3P in GA from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 42.8% to Trump 43.0% https://t.co/DHubp7eyjG
  • 20:00:41 Full 3P results logged: Opinion Savvy w/3P in GA from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 42.8% to Trump 43.0% to Johnson 10.8%
  • 20:00:49 Clinton vs Trump state category change: GA has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/DHubp7eyjG
  • 20:10:36 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 363 to Trump 175 -> Clinton 347 to Trump 191 https://t.co/7NF9urAtqz
  • 20:13:09 Poll Added: Suffolk w/3P in NV from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 43.80% to Trump 41.60% https://t.co/yeP1kTVk4p
  • 20:13:14 Full 3P results logged: Suffolk w/3P in NV from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 43.80% to Trump 41.60% to Johnson 4.80%
  • 21:01:47 That’s all for today. New polls added in GA/NV. The one in GA changed my categorization of the state, so @ElectionGraphs blog post soon.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-19 (UTC)