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Electoral College: Trump Surge Sputtering Out?

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states and DC.

Notable changes in: Florida (29), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and the tipping point.

National Summary

It has been about two days since the last update. Since then the changes have been mixed, indicating that perhaps the recent movement toward Trump has topped out.

Good for Trump

  • The tipping point moves from Clinton by 2.2% in NH to Clinton by 1.8% in NC
  • Trump’s best case has improved from a 100 EV win to a 112 EV win

Good for Clinton

  • The expected case moves from Clinton winning by 32 EV to Clinton winning by 108 EV
  • Clinton’s best case moves from a 178 EV win to a 210 EV win

Charts

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screen-shot-2016-11-06-at-12-04-49647

screen-shot-2016-11-06-at-12-19-58777

Discussion

While we have some indicators moving in each direction, the two to pay attention to are the expected electoral college result and the tipping point. The two “best case” scenarios give all states with a margin under 5% to one candidate or another. Those are both highly unlikely scenarios less than three days out from polls closing.

Even those two indicators are mixed though. If you had to decide who is favored in this update, you would still pick Trump though. Even though his expected electoral total has gone down, the tipping point moves a bit in his favor, meaning that the amount he has to move polls in order to win has lessened.

So while he is losing by more, the amount of effort to change that has still decreased.

The one caveat there is that while the tipping point has improved since my last update, looking at the actual trend line it seems to be down from a recent peak.

If you put all these mixed messages together, it looks like the recent “Trump Surge” may have reached a high water mark… or at least a pause.

At these levels Clinton is of course still winning. The electoral result according to the current averages would be Clinton 323 to Trump 215, a 108 electoral vote win for Clinton. Trump does better than Romney did here, but still loses.

Trump still has ways to win though. The easiest way right now would be for him to pull in Nevada (0.1% Clinton lead), New Hampshire (0.7% Clinton lead), Florida (1.8% Clinton lead), and North Carolina (1.8% Clinton lead). That would get him to a 269-269 tie and throw the election into the House of Representatives, where he would probably win. To win outright, he would need to also pull in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Clinton is currently leading by 2.0% in the Election Graphs average.

Moving things by 2% doesn’t seem that big a move in the grand scheme of things, but given the history of the race in terms of what seem to be the candidate’s floors and ceilings, as well as reports of early voting trends in some of those states (specifically Nevada and Florida), moving those states that last little bit is harder than it may seem just looking at the percentages. If anything, the preliminary early voting data seems to indicate Clinton may end up over-performing the polling, not the other way around.

Just to check in with the sites that give odds (which we do not), the chances of a Trump win given all the current information:

The median of these 8 estimates is 12%. That seems reasonable and in line with what I would expect from the Election Graphs numbers and the small amount of time left before the election is over.

2.5 days until polls start to close. We are almost there.

State Details

The following are the detailed charts for all the states that influenced the national changes outlined above.

Moving from Trump to Clinton

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chart-370

Moving from Clinton to Trump

chart-371

Now possible Trump pickups

chart-372

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Now possible Clinton pickups

chart-374

No longer possible Trump pickups

chart-375

Other states that helped move the tipping point

chart-376

A note about faithless electors

In the past few days there have been reports of first one, then two, expected electors from Washington state saying that that have decided to or are considering being “faithless electors” by voting for someone other than who they are “supposed to” when the Electoral College votes in December.

Yes, they can do that. In Washington state there would be a $1000 fine if they did, but they can do it, and it would count.

There was also one other potential elector from Georgia who suggested they would be faithless back in August. That potential elector came under extreme pressure and resigned, to be replaced by someone who would presumably vote the “right” way.

That might well happen to these two as well. But faithless electors can and do happen every few election cycles. In the last 50 years there were faithless electors in 2004, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1972, and 1968. That is 6 out of 12 elections during that period. Half. It would not be surprising if there were one or more faithless electors in 2016, especially given the contentious nature of the race. They have never made a difference in the final outcome.

The Election Graphs estimates show what the results “should be” given who wins various states. They do not take into account statements by individual electors on their intentions. If a scenario arises where it is close enough for electors who have made statements like this to potentially make a difference in the outcome or throw the race to the House, we will of course make note of that. And once electors vote in December, we will show the final tallies, including any votes cast by faithless electors.

A note about McMullin

Right now the Real Clear Politics average in Utah has McMullin 12.4% behind the lead. The 538 average in Utah has him 10.3% behind the lead. Although McMullin was a lot closer than anyone expected, he never got closer than 5% to the lead in Utah in these averages and now appears to be fading. 538 still has him in second place, but it doesn’t seem likely at this point that he will win electoral votes.

If that changes, I will of course note it in these updates and on the Election Graphs site.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks a state poll based estimate of the Electoral College. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

Edit 13:56 UTC to add an additional paragraph break.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-05 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-05 (UTC)

  • 02:02:30 Poll Added: Loras w/4P in WI from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% https://t.co/PbSPDL6XNW
  • 02:02:35 Full 4P results: Loras w/4P in WI from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 02:06:19 Poll Added: Harper w/4P in PA from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 46% https://t.co/96TUh1NTIZ
  • 02:06:24 Full 4P results: Harper w/4P in PA from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 46% to Johnson 2% to Stein 1%
  • 02:13:57 Poll Added: Howey w/3P in IN from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 37% to Trump 48% https://t.co/3A2RxHrcgj
  • 02:14:02 Full 3P results: Howey w/3P in IN from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 37% to Trump 48% to Johnson 9%
  • 02:20:33 Poll Added: Gravis w/3P in IN from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 39% to Trump 49% https://t.co/37bOo5jMup
  • 02:20:38 Full 3P results: Gravis w/3P in IN from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 39% to Trump 49% to Johnson 5%
  • 02:24:15 Poll Added: Roanoke w/4P in VA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 45% to Trump 38% https://t.co/7JkXdrgp4L
  • 02:24:20 Full 4P results: Roanoke w/4P in VA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 45% to Trump 38% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
  • 02:24:39 Clinton vs Trump state category change: VA has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/7JkXdrgp4L
  • 02:31:11 Poll Added: Landmark w/3P in GA from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 48% https://t.co/T5TKzRzvBD
  • 02:31:16 Full 3P results: Landmark w/3P in GA from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 48% to Johnson 4%
  • 02:33:24 Poll Added: Opinion Savvy w/3P in GA from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 44.6% to Trump 48.5% https://t.co/wGJ2H3Fozb
  • 02:33:30 Full 3P results: Opinion Savvy w/3P in GA from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 44.6% to Trump 48.5% to Johnson 5.6%
  • 02:33:49 Clinton vs Trump state category change: GA has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/wGJ2H3Fozb
  • 02:38:57 Poll Added: Stockton w/4P in NJ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 51% to Trump 40% https://t.co/iSHd3D9i4v
  • 02:39:02 Full 4P results: Stockton w/4P in NJ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 51% to Trump 40% to Johnson 3% to Stein 1%
  • 02:45:10 Poll Added: WNEU w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-10-23 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 56% to Trump 26% https://t.co/LCdsP4rkir
  • 02:45:15 Full 4P results: WNEU w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-10-23 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 56% to Trump 26% to Johnson 8% to Stein 3%
  • 02:47:38 Poll Added: WNEU RV w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-10-23 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 55% to Trump 25% https://t.co/ytTZYRrNQS
  • 02:47:43 Full 4P results: WNEU RV w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-10-23 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 55% to Trump 25% to Johnson 9% to Stein 4%
  • 02:54:07 Poll Added: WNEU RV w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 54% to Trump 25% https://t.co/ToBhDXm9or
  • 02:54:12 Full 4P results: WNEU RV w/4P [4] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 54% to Trump 25% to Johnson 8% to Stein 5%
  • 02:55:52 Poll Added: WNEU RV [4] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 61% to Trump 30% https://t.co/412CQhd2UG
  • 02:57:56 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 358 to Trump 180 -> Clinton 374 to Trump 164 https://t.co/yliwQBScku
  • 02:57:57 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 210 to Trump 328 -> Clinton 223 to Trump 315 https://t.co/yliwQBScku
  • 03:01:10 Poll Added: Docking w/4P in KS from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 34% to Trump 58% https://t.co/bdf6ZuqpyF
  • 03:01:15 Full 4P results: Docking w/4P in KS from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 34% to Trump 58% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%
  • 03:01:36 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KS has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/bdf6ZuqpyF
  • 03:25:23 Poll Added: Magellan w/4P in CO from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% https://t.co/f9APtsqXcP
  • 03:25:28 Full 4P results: Magellan w/4P in CO from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 03:31:34 Poll Added: Rasmussen w/3P in UT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 31% to Trump 42% https://t.co/6gyPi6euSL
  • 03:31:39 Full 3P results: Rasmussen w/3P in UT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 31% to Trump 42% to Johnson 3%
  • 03:32:15 The Rasmussen UT poll also included McMullin, who came in 3rd at 21%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 03:34:59 Poll Added: Field w/4P in CA from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 53% to Trump 33% https://t.co/MyBbt8ojSJ
  • 03:35:04 Full 4P results: Field w/4P in CA from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 53% to Trump 33% to Johnson 4% to Stein 3%
  • 16:45:04 Poll Added: Y2 w/3P in UT from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 24% to Trump 33% https://t.co/FcjSsTd7EU
  • 16:45:09 Full 3P results: Y2 w/3P in UT from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 24% to Trump 33% to Johnson 5%
  • 16:45:28 Clinton vs Trump state category change: UT has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/FcjSsTd7EU
  • 16:45:52 The Y2 poll in Utah also included McMullin who came in 2nd at 28%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 16:54:16 Poll Added: Loras [4] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 36.3% to Trump 40.9% https://t.co/2vlxkTyi44
  • 16:54:37 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IA has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/2vlxkTyi44
  • 16:55:30 Poll Added: Loras w/Lean [4] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 41.2% to Trump 46.6% https://t.co/M8MXEGbmzm
  • 16:56:53 Poll Added: Loras w/4P [4] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 40.6% to Trump 37.2% https://t.co/QUSWC07Qfv
  • 16:56:58 Full 4P results: Loras w/4P [4] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 40.6% to Trump 37.2% to Johnson 1.6% to Stein 2.2%
  • 16:58:50 Poll Added: Loras w/Lean w/4P [4] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 44.2% to Trump 43.4% https://t.co/F53ZDhnvYD
  • 16:58:55 Full 4P results: Loras w/Lean w/4P [4] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 44.2% to Trump 43.4% to Johnson 3.2% to Stein 2.6%
  • 16:59:17 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IA has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/F53ZDhnvYD
  • 17:07:23 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/4P in WA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 50% to Trump 38% https://t.co/SmRJerq4zG
  • 17:07:28 Full 4P results: SurveyUSA w/4P in WA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 50% to Trump 38% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
  • 17:13:03 Poll Added: RABA w/4P [2] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 41% to Trump 44% https://t.co/jUTyXO0k95
  • 17:13:09 Full 4P results: RABA w/4P [2] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 41% to Trump 44% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
  • 17:13:29 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IA has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/jUTyXO0k95
  • 17:14:45 Poll Added: RABA [2] in IA from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 46% https://t.co/PN0hHD7Zgp
  • 17:15:07 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IA has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/PN0hHD7Zgp
  • 17:19:01 Next updates are additional variants of the Loras Wisconsin poll added earlier, the first one I added reweighed appropriately.
  • 17:21:18 Poll Added: Loras [4] in WI from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 35.5% https://t.co/8dmQNDA73z
  • 17:22:55 Poll Added: Loras w/Lean [4] in WI from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43.8% to Trump 42.3% https://t.co/0hoiLdEQA2
  • 17:25:03 Poll Added: Loras w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 39.4% to Trump 31.6% https://t.co/iCMsPMHHwd
  • 17:25:08 Full 4P results: Loras w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 39.4% to Trump 31.6% to Johnson 2.3% to Stein 0.6%
  • 17:32:15 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in UT from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 29% to Trump 35% https://t.co/cPsl2qqzCw
  • 17:32:20 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in UT from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 29% to Trump 35% to Johnson 3% to Stein 1%
  • 17:32:41 Clinton vs Trump state category change: UT has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/cPsl2qqzCw
  • 17:32:44 The Gravis UT poll also included McMullin. He came in 3rd at 24%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 18:30:03 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in FL from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 45% https://t.co/v10Kp1YACA
  • 18:30:08 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in FL from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 45% to Johnson 4%
  • 18:33:15 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NY from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 58% to Trump 32% https://t.co/eJ8EeuvAPW
  • 18:33:20 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NY from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 58% to Trump 32% to Johnson 5%
  • 18:45:17 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in UT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 30% to Trump 34% https://t.co/t1aue2BKjt
  • 18:45:21 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in UT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 30% to Trump 34% to Johnson 6%
  • 18:45:42 Clinton vs Trump state category change: UT has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/t1aue2BKjt
  • 18:46:44 The SurveyMonkey EM poll in Utah also included McMullin. He came in 3rd at 25%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 18:48:58 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in VA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 49% to Trump 39% https://t.co/J5IFXcnWpX
  • 18:49:03 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in VA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 49% to Trump 39% to Johnson 7%
  • 18:51:36 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in OH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 42% to Trump 46% https://t.co/EBloK2NFbM
  • 18:51:41 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in OH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 42% to Trump 46% to Johnson 8%
  • 18:54:05 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NV from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 42% to Trump 43% https://t.co/uiGo1HjAk0
  • 18:54:10 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NV from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 42% to Trump 43% to Johnson 10%
  • 18:54:20 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 1.3% in FL -> Clinton by 1.4% in FL https://t.co/mgW0R8ErZx
  • 18:54:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NV has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/uiGo1HjAk0
  • 18:58:04 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 38% https://t.co/D7i5pbzvwv
  • 18:58:09 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 38% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:58:29 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NH has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/D7i5pbzvwv
  • 19:01:25 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AL from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 36% to Trump 54% https://t.co/YgfO7jUXBO
  • 19:01:30 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AL from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 36% to Trump 54% to Johnson 6%
  • 19:03:37 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% https://t.co/k4IDiEkXQ9
  • 19:03:42 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% to Johnson 7%
  • 19:05:55 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in ME-All from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 39% https://t.co/0b1XFSGee0
  • 19:06:00 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in ME-All from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 39% to Johnson 6%
  • 19:06:24 Clinton vs Trump state category change: ME-All has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/0b1XFSGee0
  • 19:08:11 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in CA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 56% to Trump 30% https://t.co/o0PKcRoL1t
  • 19:08:16 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in CA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 56% to Trump 30% to Johnson 6%
  • 19:10:33 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MO from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 48% https://t.co/XxCJ2TGDEv
  • 19:10:38 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MO from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 48% to Johnson 7%
  • 19:12:53 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in DE from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 36% https://t.co/rAw5OOMxdt
  • 19:12:58 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in DE from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 36% to Johnson 8%
  • 19:13:21 Clinton vs Trump state category change: DE has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/rAw5OOMxdt
  • 19:15:21 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/cWQeLTsEt7
  • 19:16:26 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% to Johnson 8%
  • 19:19:21 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in KS from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 36% to Trump 48% https://t.co/cVz9xzPu1w
  • 19:19:24 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 310 to Trump 228 -> Clinton 304 to Trump 234 https://t.co/b9kiN8Yidw
  • 19:19:26 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in KS from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 36% to Trump 48% to Johnson 10%
  • 19:34:55 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in KY from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 36% to Trump 54% https://t.co/FeKugm7O18
  • 19:35:00 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in KY from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 36% to Trump 54% to Johnson 6%
  • 19:37:37 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NC from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 41% https://t.co/0wZLjfPsDU
  • 19:37:42 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NC from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 41% to Johnson 7%
  • 19:39:48 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in ID from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 30% to Trump 47% https://t.co/zML8gc7edp
  • 19:39:53 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in ID from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 30% to Trump 47% to Johnson 6%
  • 19:42:40 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in PA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 46% to Trump 43% https://t.co/VCq0CIbn1i
  • 19:42:45 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in PA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 46% to Trump 43% to Johnson 6%
  • 19:42:49 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 304 to Trump 234 -> Clinton 308 to Trump 230 https://t.co/Xtxl5gcVHB
  • 19:45:47 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in SD from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 30% to Trump 53% https://t.co/Mefnwue9jG
  • 19:45:52 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in SD from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 30% to Trump 53% to Johnson 13%
  • 19:55:42 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in SC from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 43% to Trump 46% https://t.co/6kDms8edDj
  • 19:55:47 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in SC from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 43% to Trump 46% to Johnson 5%
  • 19:58:20 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NJ from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 53% to Trump 37% https://t.co/NR2M4aONlZ
  • 19:58:25 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NJ from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 53% to Trump 37% to Johnson 4%
  • 20:00:52 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in LA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 38% to Trump 52% https://t.co/jI6QbYC9wF
  • 20:00:57 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in LA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 38% to Trump 52% to Johnson 4%
  • 20:03:02 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 32% to Trump 53% https://t.co/BO7XPBdnMZ
  • 20:03:07 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 32% to Trump 53% to Johnson 9%
  • 20:05:51 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in OR from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 35% https://t.co/SPEgKq2ktO
  • 20:05:56 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in OR from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 35% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:06:20 Clinton vs Trump state category change: OR has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/SPEgKq2ktO
  • 20:08:25 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NM from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 36% https://t.co/ONtvRyIKbp
  • 20:08:31 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NM from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 36% to Johnson 17%
  • 20:11:27 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in IA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 37% to Trump 47% https://t.co/Fru3GBUQDY
  • 20:11:32 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in IA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 37% to Trump 47% to Johnson 9%
  • 20:11:52 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IA has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/Fru3GBUQDY
  • 20:18:03 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in CT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 37% https://t.co/V4OxTkd6Zp
  • 20:18:08 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in CT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 37% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:27:57 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MN from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 46% to Trump 38% https://t.co/YxQCHH4Qjh
  • 20:28:02 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MN from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 46% to Trump 38% to Johnson 10%
  • 20:30:38 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AZ from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% https://t.co/bCiike4Fss
  • 20:30:44 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AZ from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:38:34 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in GA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 45% to Trump 45% https://t.co/VNeP59eds3
  • 20:38:39 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in GA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 45% to Trump 45% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:41:17 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 52% to Trump 34% https://t.co/PzhLzFxRV6
  • 20:41:22 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 52% to Trump 34% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:43:35 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in TN from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 49% https://t.co/NcAGmRaTlW
  • 20:43:40 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in TN from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 49% to Johnson 5%
  • 20:44:15 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 308 to Trump 230 -> Clinton 302 to Trump 236 https://t.co/pfTvujdONe
  • 20:46:00 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in CO from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 43% to Trump 40% https://t.co/d9loDaOavy
  • 20:46:05 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in CO from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 43% to Trump 40% to Johnson 11%
  • 20:48:24 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MD from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 61% to Trump 28% https://t.co/94VstTEP0q
  • 20:48:29 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MD from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 61% to Trump 28% to Johnson 6%
  • 20:51:21 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in OK from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 31% to Trump 57% https://t.co/yTdguxIrTf
  • 20:51:26 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in OK from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 31% to Trump 57% to Johnson 10%
  • 20:53:40 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AK from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 33% to Trump 46% https://t.co/enC1jSRskP
  • 20:53:45 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AK from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 33% to Trump 46% to Johnson 13%
  • 20:56:01 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in IL from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 53% to Trump 36% https://t.co/aBQTwlqxWw
  • 20:56:06 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in IL from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 53% to Trump 36% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:59:01 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in TX from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 42% to Trump 47% https://t.co/mIdeHXj3Fm
  • 20:59:06 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in TX from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 42% to Trump 47% to Johnson 6%
  • 20:59:28 Clinton vs Trump state category change: TX has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/mIdeHXj3Fm
  • 21:01:42 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WV from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 27% to Trump 57% https://t.co/IYAdV5X57H
  • 21:01:47 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WV from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 27% to Trump 57% to Johnson 7%
  • 21:03:52 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in IN from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 35% to Trump 53% https://t.co/C3wBwFi6vS
  • 21:03:57 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in IN from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 35% to Trump 53% to Johnson 9%
  • 21:06:58 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 55% to Trump 29% https://t.co/B68mgM67dF
  • 21:07:03 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MA from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 55% to Trump 29% to Johnson 7%
  • 21:09:03 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NE-All from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 34% to Trump 52% https://t.co/AXd4HMXz3k
  • 21:09:08 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in NE-All from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 34% to Trump 52% to Johnson 8%
  • 21:11:16 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AR from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 34% to Trump 55% https://t.co/OlNBjZ3Nlu
  • 21:11:21 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in AR from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 34% to Trump 55% to Johnson 6%
  • 21:13:36 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MS from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 40% to Trump 50% https://t.co/zKYyZBCmF9
  • 21:13:41 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in MS from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 40% to Trump 50% to Johnson 5%
  • 21:16:19 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in DC from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 87% to Trump 6% https://t.co/G4pkeSwz29
  • 21:16:24 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in DC from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 87% to Trump 6% to Johnson 2%
  • 21:18:23 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in VT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 59% to Trump 25% https://t.co/AkMuzzLdbP
  • 21:18:28 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in VT from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 59% to Trump 25% to Johnson 9%
  • 21:21:08 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in HI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 53% to Trump 28% https://t.co/H9py1o1MgF
  • 21:21:13 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in HI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 53% to Trump 28% to Johnson 8%
  • 21:23:11 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WY from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 22% to Trump 60% https://t.co/hSeaJGRfr1
  • 21:23:16 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in WY from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 22% to Trump 60% to Johnson 8%
  • 21:25:58 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in ND from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 29% to Trump 57% https://t.co/MTnZnDjM1z
  • 21:26:03 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in ND from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 29% to Trump 57% to Johnson 10%
  • 21:28:38 Poll Added: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in RI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 49% to Trump 36% https://t.co/t8RCis5kWb
  • 21:28:43 Full 3P results: SurveyMonkey EM w/3P in RI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 49% to Trump 36% to Johnson 8%
  • 23:22:49 Poll Added: Ipsos in AL from 2016-10-21 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 38.366% to Trump 55.068% https://t.co/Qx83lbfsRl
  • 23:25:09 Poll Added: Ipsos in AZ from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 41.570% to Trump 47.604% https://t.co/mp0mkZM9do
  • 23:30:17 Poll Added: Ipsos in CA from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 60.403% to Trump 30.338% https://t.co/pmxb6MieN5
  • 23:32:02 Poll Added: Ipsos in CO from 2016-10-21 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 47.594% to Trump 42.232% https://t.co/HTub2BKI5a
  • 23:33:24 Poll Added: Ipsos in CT from 2016-10-21 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 48.951% to Trump 41.479% https://t.co/X57Y0rFIJj
  • 23:37:24 Poll Added: Ipsos in AR from 2016-10-14 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 39.174% to Trump 49.559% https://t.co/hgoQuhciA4
  • 23:39:05 Poll Added: Ipsos in DE from 2016-10-14 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 44.708% to Trump 33.835% https://t.co/TDKMM0LFj4
  • 23:41:28 Poll Added: Ipsos in FL from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 47.875% to Trump 46.891% https://t.co/PRXJl2S3CV
  • 23:43:58 Poll Added: Ipsos in GA from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 41.755% to Trump 48.134% https://t.co/F69TFUcrpJ
  • 23:46:21 Poll Added: Ipsos in ID from 2016-10-14 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 29.966% to Trump 51.680% https://t.co/XZ2zOLkEjq
  • 23:48:28 Poll Added: Ipsos in IL from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 51.740% to Trump 38.989% https://t.co/b7fs9s52TV
  • 23:51:12 Poll Added: Ipsos in IN from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 37.956% to Trump 52.813% https://t.co/IKikJQJa0F
  • 23:51:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/IKikJQJa0F
  • 23:54:24 Poll Added: Ipsos in IA from 2016-10-14 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 45.040% to Trump 44.162% https://t.co/5vip221kSu
  • 23:55:53 Poll Added: Ipsos in KS from 2016-10-14 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 37.617% to Trump 52.759% https://t.co/sWuRI9ET2n
  • 23:57:35 Poll Added: Ipsos in KY from 2016-10-21 to 2016-11-03 – Clinton 36.014% to Trump 59.437% https://t.co/kFMG86U4v1

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-05 (UTC)