This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Going Bad

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Brandy joins Sam to talk about dogs, raisins, impeachment, Mexican tariffs, propaganda, polls, and electability. A fun and exciting show!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2019-06-08
Length this week – 1:37:47

  • (0:00:33-0:57:18) Round 1
    • Brandy: Raisin Dog
    • Sam: Impeachment
  • (0:58:55-1:37:27) Round 2
    • Brandy: Trump Soup
    • Sam: Electability

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Slosh Back

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about politics in the US, UK, and Israel. They also riff on Julian Assange, Mexican tariffs, and Social Media disinformation. Plus some feedback and an Election Graphs update!

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2019-05-31
Length this week – 1:50:22

  • (0:00:25-0:27:22) Round 1
    • Ivan: New Israeli Elections
    • Sam: New Assange Indictments
  • (0:27:58-0:59:48) Round 2
    • Ivan: Mueller Statement
    • Sam: Teresa May Resignation
  • (1:00:27-1:40:46) Round 3
    • Ivan: Mexico Tariffs
    • Sam: Social Media Disinformation
  • (1:44:29-1:50:01) Round 4
    • Ivan: Feedback
    • Sam: Election Graphs Update

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Pod Coast Pod Roast

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about Cohen revealing there were talks about pardons, that long rambly Trump speech, Fox news acting as an extension of Trump, Representative Omar’s comments, and a bunch more. Yes, it is a lightning round show! You even get Ivan ranting about tangled cables, Sam plugging his Election Graphs site, and another reminder about the Seattle meetup!

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2019-03-07
Length this week – 1:47:44

  • (0:02:28-0:07:58) But First
    • Agenda
    • Busy Ivan
    • Seattle Meetup
  • (0:09:14-1:01:01) Lightning Round 1
    • Ivan: Cable Tangles
    • Sam: Election Graphs
    • Ivan: Rep Omar
    • Sam: Cohen Pardons
  • (1:02:22-1:47:23) Lightning Round 2
    • Ivan: Trade Deficit
    • Sam: Tracking journalists
    • Ivan: Long Trump speech
    • Sam: Fox News

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Election Graphs 2020 is live!

So, I mentioned a while ago that I wouldn’t be posting here regularly about developments over on my site Election Graphs. And I won’t. But I did want to mention that although I’m about four months later than I had wanted to be, and I haven’t yet made some of the changes and additions I have been thinking about, Election Graphs 2020 is now live and up to date with the sixteen 2020 state polls that have already been released, and I’ll be continuing to update it as new polls are released.

Recent highlights:

  • 2019-01-27: Polling Averages vs Reality – The first in a six-part series looking at how polling averages compared to actual election results in the last three election cycles. (Links to the other five posts in the series are in the first post.)
  • 2019-03-03: The 2020 Starting Line – A post looking at the average state by state election results for the past five cycles (2000-2016) to try to define what the “starting line” for the 2020 race looks like. This places each state where it would be based on this nearly 20-year history.
  • 2019-03-08: The First 2020 Polls – The kick off for actually looking at real polls for 2020, pitting various Democrats against Trump. The main theme so far… based on the very limited polling so far, Biden does better against Trump than the other four of the five “best polled” Democrats. (That would be Warren, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Harris.)

At this point, as new polls come in, I’ll be updating the Election Graphs Electoral College 2020 page regularly as new polls come in, and when there are notable changes, I’ll be doing blog posts on the main Election Graphs page.

That kind of stuff is now over there, not here, so if you want it, you either need to be checking ElectionGraphs.com itself, subscribe to it with an RSS reader (RSS link), follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or like and follow Election Graphs on Facebook.

Hope to see some of you over there!

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Personal Petri Dish

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Ivan finally gets his Potpourri segments! In those, he and Sam talk about Ivan being cold, reports of Texas voter fraud, an update on the economy and markets, the Huawei fraud charges, and a bunch of other stuff. Including Sam getting blasted by a famous poll watcher. Oh, and of course they talk about the shutdown ending and the continuing Trump/Russia scandals.

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2019-02-01
Length this week – 2:12:40

  • (0:01:26-0:11:37) But First
    • Agenda
    • Sam is tired
  • (0:14:15-0:56:39) Potpourri! Part 1
    • Nate Silver calls Sam incompetent
    • Ivan in actual real cold
    • Economy and markets update
    • Huawei Fraud charges
  • (0:57:16-1:19:26) Potpourri! Part 2
    • Texas bullshit
    • Venezuela
    • Brexit
    • Howard Shultz
  • (1:20:46-1:39:14) Shutdown
    • Trump Caves
    • Negotiations
    • SOTU
  • (1:39:45-2:12:20) Trump Russia
    • Roger Stone
    • Capone model
    • Cohen testimony
    • Mueller almost done?
    • Cohen rigging online polls
    • Concord Group papers

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Election Graphs Blog

Just a quick note for those of you who have followed my Election Graphs analysis in 2016 (or even 2012 or 2008) and are interested in following that again as I ramp up for 2020.

In each of the previous cycles, I’ve posted my analysis updates on my personal blog which in turn has automatically posted on my personal Facebook page and my personal Twitter and such. For those of you NOT interested in the Election stuff, this was probably most annoying. It was also odd that those posts were on a different site than the actual charts and graphs and such.

So for 2020, I’m putting all of those sorts of analysis posts on Election Graphs proper, and NOT on the personal pages. Well, I may still highlight something every once in awhile, but most of it won’t be there.

So if you are interested in my election stuff and want to follow it, but only follow my personal accounts, you might want to make sure you are following the Election stuff directly. Here is where you will be able to find it:

  • Election Graphs – The site itself, everything will originate here
  • Election Graphs Facebook – Links to new analysis posts when they come out. Be sure to set the preference to “see first”, or you may or may not actually see these posts depending on what Facebook is doing with their timeline algorithm that day.
  • Election Graphs Twitter – Links to new analysis posts when they come out. Probably additional automated tweets when states change status and other things like that once the time comes for that. Maybe other things occasionally. We’ll see.
  • ElecCollPolls Twitter – Automated tweets when I add new polls to my database of state polls for the general election.

I just posted the first thing on the new blog a few minutes ago. There will be more over the next few months as I ramp things up. My goal is to officially launch the 2020 analysis very soon after the 2018 midterm elections are over. I’ve got a lot to do between now and then. I’ll post updates over at Election Graphs.

See you there!

PS: For those of you annoyed by the weekly Curmudgeon’s Corner posts, I’ll be moving them off to a separate space at some point too. I have the plans for that all mapped out in my head… but there is more time pressure on the Election stuff, so I’m doing that first. :-)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The Big RNC Show

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan do a Republican National Convention mega show, talking about each night of the convention in detail. But a lot of other things happened this week, so before even starting on the convention they cover Nice and Munich and Syria and Baton Rouge and Miami and Turkey and Roger Ailes and the VP announcements and more. It was a very very busy news week. To top it off, Sam also interviews an actual attendee at the convention. It is a big show. Over three and a half hours this time. Our longest ever. Enjoy!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-07-23

Length this week – 3:40:00

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:06:55) Introduction
    • Big News Week
    • Election Graphs vs Curmudgeon’s Corner
  • (0:07:58-0:32:56) Everything Else Part 1
    • Nice Attack
    • Munich Attack
    • Alex Interlude
    • US Drone Strike in Syria
    • Baton Rogue Police Killing
    • North Miami Shooting
  • (0:33:09-0:52:39) Everything Else Part 2
    • Ivan’s Staplers
    • Attempted Coup in Turkey
    • Roger Ailes
  • (0:53:24-1:22:06) Everything Else Part 3
    • Mike Pence VP Rollout
    • Republican Rules Committee
    • Trump and Russia
    • Leaked DNC docs
    • Tim Kaine VP Announcement
  • (1:22:44-1:41:22) Republican National Convention Day 1
    • Expectations
    • Rules Vote
    • Minor Speakers
    • Melania Speech
  • (1:42:25-1:57:07) Republican National Convention Day 2
    • Official Roll Call Vote
    • Giuliani Speech
    • Christie Mock Trial
    • Duck Song
    • Don Jr Speech
  • (1:57:55-2:21:15) Republican National Convention Day 3
    • Cruz Speech
    • Pence Speech
    • Trump NYT Interview
  • (2:21:54-2:56:01) Republican National Convention Day 4
    • Ivanka Speech
    • Trump Speech
    • Trump vs Clinton
  • (2:57:09-3:35:50) Interview with Marcus the RNC Alternate
    • Self-Introduction
    • Political Origins
    • Primary Support
    • Unification
    • Electability
    • Demographics
    • NeverTrump efforts
    • Convention Experience
    • Protests
    • Final thoughts
  • (3:37:10-3:39:40) Wrap up

Note: Timestamps are accurate, but many audio players are not very precise on the timestamps they show, especially when scanning forwards and backwards, so depending on your player, if you scan to a specific time, you may not get exactly what is shown above and may have to scan back or forward a bit to get what is expected.

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Shards of Glass

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan spend the most time on Election 2016. So you will hear all about the latest Trump craziness and the Clinton email scandal. But there is a lot more here too! We recorded before Philandro Castile’s death or the attacks in Dallas, so that will have to wait until next week, but Sam has an adventure with the IRS and we talk about our theme music by Ray Lynch! And in a lightning round we briefly cover over a dozen other topics from the space probe at Jupiter to Puerto Rican bankruptcy to how Sam rigs the election polls… and more!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-07-07

Length this week – 2:01:41

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
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Download MP3 File
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Show Details:

  • (0:01:58-0:20:23) But First
    • Agenda
    • Sam and the IRS
    • Ivan Family
    • Ray Lynch
  • (0:21:03-1:02:56) Election 2016: Republicans
    • Star of David Tweet
    • Trump likes Saddam Hussein
    • Trump throwing the election?
    • Trump rape charges
    • Free the delegates?
  • (1:04:12-1:27:12) Election 2016: Democrats
    • Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch
    • Clinton Email Scandal
    • Sanders Foot Dragging
    • Veepstakes
  • (1:27:53-2:01:21) Lightning Round
    • Juno at Jupiter
    • Brexit Fallout
    • Tesla Crashes
    • Non-Western Terror Attacks
    • EgyptAir Update
    • Puerto Rican Bankrupcy
    • Chilcot Report
    • Alton Sterling
    • Christian Mingle
    • ALeXMXeLA.com
    • Gretchen Carslon lawsuit
    • Book: Earth Afire
    • Trump and the Frozen book
    • Rigging the Polls for Clinton

Note: Timestamps are accurate, but many audio players are not very precise on the timestamps they show, especially when scanning forwards and backwards, so depending on your player, if you scan to a specific time, you may not get exactly what is shown above and may have to scan back or forward a bit to get what is expected.

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

Curmudgeon’s Corner: All Kinds of Blinking Stuff

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan are back into the swing of things with most of the show covering Election 2016. What does Sanders want at this point? What about that Trump surge in the polls? How about all the other Trump stuff this week? But they cover a few other things too, from Sam’s latest travel adventures, to bathroom laws, to the EgyptAir crash, to Obama in Hiroshima, and more.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-05-26

Length this week – 2:01:45

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:23:40) But First
    • Sam Travel
    • Agenda
    • Computer Upgrades
    • Changing Buildings
  • (0:24:25-0:45:17) Interview Show Followup
    • Missing Views
    • Ivan confused by Michael from Pennsylvania
    • Fiscally Conservative Republicans?
  • (0:46:26-1:02:49) Election 2016 – Democrats
    • What does Sanders want? – Platform
    • What does Sanders want? – Relevance
    • What does Sanders want? – DWS’s Head
    • What does Sanders want? – Rules changes
    • When does Sanders fold?
  • (1:03:53-1:31:24) Election 2016 – Republicans
    • Trump surge in national polls
    • Trump/Ryan dance
    • Trump Supreme Court List
    • Trump and 90’s Clinton Scandals
    • Anti-Trump Strategies
    • Trump’s Odds
  • (1:32:39-2:01:25) Lightning Round
    • Clinton’s Email
    • Election Graphs Commenters
    • Bathroom Laws
    • Violent Protestors
    • EgyptAir Plane
    • Obama Hiroshima Visit
    • Thiel vs Gawker
    • 1000 likes for Election Graphs

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Conspiracy Machine

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan do indeed talk a lot about Election 2016 and all of the developments there, but there is other news this week too! So first off is a discussion of Apple vs the FBI, then an analysis of the battle following Justice Scalia’s death. Oh, and you get the story of Sam’s drive from Seattle to San Francisco, and a bit about the limitations of video streaming too!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-02-19

Length this week – 2:16:56

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:31:57) But First
    • Sam in a Hotel
    • Agenda
    • New Microphone
    • Internet Quality
    • Sam’s Drive
  • (0:32:37-0:54:55) Apple vs FBI
    • The Order
    • Why Apple Refused
    • Why is FBI pushing this case?
    • What if Apple loses?
    • What if Apple wins?
    • Industry Implications
    • Slippery Slope
    • Politicians and Encryption
  • (0:55:58-1:21:14) Death of Justice Scalia
    • Ivan’s doppelgänger
    • The news breaks, people go nuts
    • Republican Senate says don’t even nominate
    • Higher stakes that previous vacancies?
    • Recess Appointment?
    • Does this damage Senate Republicans?
    • Who does Obama pick?
    • Hypocrisy?
    • Will the wall hold until January?
    • Impact of 4-4 Court
  • (1:22:34-1:40:01) Election 2016 – Democrats
    • Upcoming Contest Schedule
    • Nevada Polls
    • Election Graphs Comment
    • Superdelegates
    • Possible paths for Sanders
  • (1:40:50-2:08:09) Election 2016 – Republicans
    • The Latest Debate
    • Polling Update
    • Gaming out the next states
    • Trump trying to lose?
    • Trump lawsuit threats
    • Trump’s RNC Deal
    • Trump and the Pope
  • (2:09:18-2:16:36) Lightning Round
    • Obama going to Cuba
    • Steaming Video