This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



April 2008

Two Articles

Two really long and detailed articles giving good insight into the Democratic race:

The Law of Rules
(Josiah Lee Auspitz, Washington Monthly)

For almost four decades I have been inflicting on friends, family, airplane seatmates, straphangers on the subway and other random acquaintances my stupefying knowledge of party rules. To me this is a subject so enthralling that I cannot understand anyone’s being indifferent to it.

I have written scholarly articles and op-ed pieces, testified, lobbied and litigated, presented maps, tables and charts, consulted, advised and given interviews on the topic. About twenty-five years ago I directed a project analyzing party rules in all the fifty states. My young assistant in this task later foreswore politics and entered a monastic order.

In other words, I am a complete party rules bore. I suppose it would be more dignified to present myself as a political scientist, but I have no illusions.

Still, every two or three quadrennial elections events conspire to give rules minutiae a wider audience. This is one of those rare moments.

(via Kevin Drum, Washington Monthly)

No Really. Hillary Has a Decent Shot
(Sean Oxendine, RealClearPolitics)

It has become something of a pastime among polling geeks like myself to use Jay Cost’s primary vote calculator to predict the outcome of the Democratic race. Most who have played with it have come up with some kind of scenario where Hillary leads in the popular vote.

Now, I don’t mean to pat myself on the back, but a few days before Jay’s calculator came out, I had my own estimate coming to this conclusion. But this calculator provides some more concrete ways of estimating the popular vote. Let’s look at this in more detail (especially given all the calls for Hillary to drop out).

(via Instapundit)

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