This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.



October 2008

Electoral College: MN strengthens for Obama, NV flips to Obama

The surge toward Obama continues today, with two more states moving in his direction:

Minnesota (10 ev): Obama’s lead goes back above 5%, moving the state from Lean Obama to Weak Obama, and making it no longer a swing state.

Nevada (5 ev): The five poll average moves from Lean McCain to Lean Obama. The usual comments… either way, too close to call, don’t read too much into it, blah blah blah.

OK, new summary:

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 288, Obama 250
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163

If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain

So, the main thing is once again that the rapid movement of states in the Obama direction continues. The “everybody gets their leans” number continues to be an all time high for Obama. The “Strong+Weak” count for Obama is now 250, which isn’t quite the 261 it was back in July, but it is pretty close.

Obama now only needs to flip 20 more electoral votes from “Lean” to “Weak” to be able to win without any swing states at all.

Right now in my last five poll averages we have Florida (27 ev) at a 4.6% Obama lead, Virginia (13 ev) at a 4.2% Obama lead and Wisconsin (10 ev) at a 4.6% Obama lead. Any of those three could easily move from “Lean” to “Weak” by going over 5% with even one more poll showing a better than 5% lead.

There is still over a month until the election, and much can happen, so I’m not ready to say anything about what things might look like on election eve. To be sure, any of those states could start heading the other direction at any moment… that is probably actually somewhat likely… but at the same time I would not be surprised at all if sometime within the next week we see a situation where McCain’s best case is still a loss.

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