This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



October 2008

Electoral College: Can Florida Please Sit Still?

Polls in 14 states today. Only one changes. And yes, it is Florida flipping back once again from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”. Again, it seems like Florida is just hovering around my 5% Obama lead boundary line between these two categories, so it keeps bouncing back and forth. I am getting tired of moving it every day though, so I wish Florida would hurry up and make up its mind.

Having said that, it is bouncing around a 5% Obama lead, not bouncing around the 0% line, so while it makes the “Weak Obama” line on my chart look a little erratic, the state of the race doesn’t really change. We have Florida in a bit of an unstable quantum superposition between the two categories. At some point, the election at the latest, the quantum state will collapse.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Not much else to say. Once again I think we are pretty much at Obama’s peak (or perhaps a bit below with Florida in the Lean category today). There are still a few states he might be able to pull in, but there are also some states that could easily swing back toward McCain…

Right now though, I think we are basically in a steady state. Of course if any events happen that actually start giving one or the other candidate some additional momentum, that could change.

And really, come on, I’d like at least a LITTLE suspense on election night. McCain needs to figure out some way to tighten this up a bit. Get to work on that John, OK? Thanks.

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