This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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November 2008
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Washington State Governor

This is another rematch. Four years ago Christine Gregoire (Democrat) beat Dino Rossi (Republican) by less than 200 votes it seems. I was not in Washington at the time, and have not followed local issues much since, so I didn’t know much about either person.

My first impression of Governor Gregoire was when I saw her at Democratic Caucus events earlier this year. My impression was decidedly negative. Almost every word out of her mouth made me want to scream.

Meanwhile, I knew nothing at all about Rossi.

For this general election, I had several Gubernatorial debates on my Tivo. I of course waited to the last minute and had not watched any of them before election day. I just watched the first one I had, recorded September 20th. It is the only one I had time to watch, and so therefore my vote will be based essentially only on the candidates’ performance in that one debate.

I continued to have an incredibly negative view of Gregoire.

First, on policy: She is very statist. It seemed like almost everything was something that could and should be solved by government. This is something I dislike a lot. One of the big issues seems to be transportation policy. She was repeatedly slamming roads and pushing public transportation sorts of solutions instead. Screw that. Give me my car damn it. Give me roads to drive on it. Make the roads big and wide. Take your collectivist trains and buses and shove them. OK, that is overly harsh. I like the occasional train and bus, although I would prefer when they are private efforts rather than public. But they should not be primary policy. Promote maximum flexibility for the individual please. And that is small vehicles that seat a handful of people at most. And this is just typical of the other policies she was promoting. They were all about ways that government could engage in social engineering to try to solve problems. I know government must be involved to some extent in many of these things, but please make it as little as possible.

Second, her attitude and temperament: She seemed cranky and angry. And bitter. She was constantly attacking Rossi. It was very very negative. Very little positive about herself, just attack, attack, attack. And she seemed arrogant and dismissive. She said several times “Those aren’t the values of the people of Washington”. How dare she presume to represent the values of the entire state. She won by a hair’s breadth last time, half the state obviously disagrees with her.

Meanwhile, Rossi seemed even tempered and stable. He never raised his voice or sounded angry. And he kept talking baout fiscal responsibility, living within our means, and generally not having government intrude where it did not need to. And on transportation he was much more pro-car.

I can’t say I actually LIKED Rossi. He seemed a little slimy too. And perhaps even like he was hiding his true self a bit. It seemed slightly fake. Like he was forcing himself to be calm.

However, more so than before, I actively DISLIKE Gregoire, and I definitely disagree on her general approach to government.

Therefore, my vote:

Dino Rossi (Prefers G.O.P. Party)

…although I must say, that absolutely idiotic “GOP Party” thing almost makes me want to change my mind in and of itself. Grand Old Party Party my ass. Just say Republican.

United States Representative Congressional District No 8

This is one of the “close” House elections nation wide. So my vote may actually make a difference here. It is a rematch of a race two years ago. The incumbent is Republican Dave Reichert. The challenger is Democrat Darcy Burner.

I am honestly very very tempted to assume an Obama victory, and then in the interest of having as divided a government as possible (which I generally think is better) voting Republican for the House, regardless of the actual candidate and their positions on things. I think having a healthy strong opposition is important. I don’t like it when one party controls the Presidency and both houses of Congress. That looks pretty much inevitable though. But maybe keeping a Republican in this seat would at least reduce the Democratic margin by one, whihc might help just a little bit. Maybe.

I am tempted by the argument above. But I also fundamentally believe that it is counter-productive to make electoral decisions on meta-arguments about the state of the whole government. I believe you should for the most part ignore party affiliations and just look at the people running for office themselves as well as the positions they hold on issues. And you should vote for the person who on an individual basis you would most like to see in office.

I saw Darcy Burner at various events over the course of this year. I have heard her stump speech. At first I rather liked her. But then on a number of things she got a bit too partisan for me. She was a bit too dogmatic. She didn’t seem to give even a nod to the concerns and viewpoints of those who disagreed with her. She was right and they were wrong. It was that simple. I did not like that. (Of course, they were Democratic Party events full of partisans, so I should probably make allowance for that.)

On the other hand, I really do not know much about Reichert other than what is in his candidate statement and what is on his website. I found nothing horribly objectionable, but nothing to call him out either. And there is one thing in specific I’d be looking for in order to vote for a Republican for Congress. I’d want to see him ignoring party lines and showing active criticism of the Bush administration for the extensive executive overreach it has conducted over the past eight years. I would want to see them defending the rights and prerogatives of the congress vs the executive. I would want to see them defending the rights of the people against the power of the government. I have seen none of that. (Example of a Republican who has done all of the above and whom I would support… Ron Paul.)

Therefore, despite the fact that she annoyed me a bit, I think Darcy Burner is a closer match to my own positions and will better represent me in Congress. Plus, I think she is a geek. And that is a good thing. (OK, a Microsoft geek, which isn’t quite as good, but still.)

So my vote:

Darcy Burner (Prefers Democratic Party)

President and Vice President of the United States

OK, I read the bios and statements of all eight tickets on my ballot. But I am running out of time and won’t waste it going through all of them. All of the third parties this year are a joke and aren’t worth it. (This includes the Libertarians, who I am usually inclined toward.)

Anybody who has been reading my blog or listening to my podcast this year knows my choice here, I’ve talked about it multiple times.

I disagree with Barack Obama on a lot of things, mainly in the area of Domestic Policy. I will be angry and annoyed at many things he does. But on foreign policy, which I generally believe is more important, I am very closely aligned with Obama’s positions.

But more importantly, there is an issue of temperament and process. From reading his books, especially his second book, one thing is clear. Obama is a thoughtful person. He considers issues carefully and deliberately. He takes into account and respects the opinions even of those he disagrees with adamantly. He is calm and cool in a crisis. He does not act impulsively. He acts out of rational analysis, not out of emotion.

This is the kind of person who should always be President. It is not what we have had for the past 8 years (arguably for the last 16 years actually). It is certainly not what John McCain would provide. But it is what is needed.

And yes, I believe the post-partisan message Obama has expounded in his 2004 Convention Speech and with regularity since then. I hope that his “Progressive” supporters that expect him to push strongly for highly partisan left-wing policies will be sorely disappointed. Of course, it could just as well be me who is sorely disappointed. As I said, I expect to be quite upset with many things Obama does.

But not only do I believe he is better than the alternatives, I believe that on balance he will be a positive force more in line with what I would want than not.

So my vote:

Barack Obama and Joe Biden (Democratic Party Nominees)

Electoral College: New Mexico Strengthens for Obama

YouGov looks like they have done polls in all 50 states plus DC. I’ve processed them up through Tennessee in alphabetical order. So far only one category change.

New Mexico (5 ev): Obama’s lead in the five poll average goes over 10% for the very first time. As such the state moves from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”. This will reduce McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario.

New Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

Electoral College: Virginia stops Swinging, Pennsylvania Strengthens

I actually took a few hours to sleep, so I’m a couple hours late posting these changes, but with some new Zogby polls, we have two states changing status:

Pennsylvania (21 ev): Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania once again hits 10%. McCain’s managed to pull Obama’s lead down from 14.1% to 5.4%… but then it stalled and Obama’s lead started growing again. As of now with the new Zogby poll added to the five poll average, Obama’s lead is exactly at the 10.0% mark, but that is enough for the state to move back into “Strong Obama” territory.

Virginia (13 ev): McCain had also reduced Obama’s lead in Virginia, making it poke below the 5% line. But with the new Zogby poll, it pushes again above 5%, making the state move back to “Weak Obama”. Virginia is once again NOT a swing state, and is not included in McCain’s best case scenario. It is still however included in the “SuperBest” scenario I added for election day.

New Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 296, Obama 242
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

Obama also won Hart’s Location

Barack Obama – 17 votes
John McCain – 10 votes
Ron Paul – 2 votes

(via Balloon Juice)

Go Ron Paul! :-)

Next is Prez

The next thing on the ballot is President/Vice President. And then I still have 23 more items on the ballot. But I think I need to catch a few Z’s. I’ll try not to be gone too long, I know all my readers are anxiously waiting for my vote for Washington State Superior Court Judge Postition No. 22 and such. I am running out of time of course, and should probably just keep powering through, but I think I need to stop to be horizontal for just a little bit. :-)

King County Charter Amendment No. 8 Nonpartisan Elections

Full text is here.

This makes the King County Executive, King County Assessor and the King County Council into non-partisan offices. I frankly think ALL elected offices should be non-partisan. Parties are generally a bad thing. I’d rather candidates stand on their own views and merits rather than tying themselves to some larger group. The opposition to this points out that candidates will still have such associations, it just won’t be on the ballot. Sure, but the information will still be easily available for those who want it, and this may just encourage people to think about the candidates themselves rather than just voting blindly for the party they generally prefer. This is a good thing.

My vote:

YES

King County Charter Amendment No. 7 Charter Amendment by Citizen Initiative

Full text is here.

Basically, this makes it a bit harder to get County Level Initatives on the ballot and changes it from the nonsensical two step process where first you vote if you want it on the ballot, then if that passes it appears on the next ballot… and makes it just go straight on the general election ballot if it gets enough signatures… with a higher number of signatures required.

I fundamentally think that ballot initiatives are generally not the right way to do things. And if they are possible at all, it should take a pretty high bar to get on the ballot, and that sort of initiative should be a very rare thing. Maybe one or two a decade.

So this effort to make it a little bit harder to do is fine with me.

My vote:

YES

King County Charter Amendment No. 6 Budget Deadlines

Full text here.

You have got to be kidding me. This changes budget deadlines to be 20 days earlier. This kind of stuff should REALLY not need a ballot measure to approve. Sigh. Crazy.

Having said that, I have no objections, so…

My vote is:

YES