Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Lines represent how many more electoral votes a candidate has than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. This chart reflects Obama vs Romney. If any other candidate takes the lead in the Republican delegate race we’ll switch to making charts for them.
This is a big one today. Obama’s 5 poll average in Pennsylvania is now more than a 5% lead. This means I take Pennsylvania out of swing state status. It is no longer “too close to call”, it is blue. This reduces Romney’s best case (win all the swing states scenario) to only a 291 to 241 win. It is still a win, but his best case is now a vey narrow win, only 22 electoral votes past the 269 needed to tie. That turns Florida into a “Must Win”, as without winning Florida, there is no longer a way to get to 269. (At least without reaching past the swing states and pulling back states where Obama is even further ahead.)
|Romney Best Case||291||247|
|Obama Best Case||170||368|
And new map…
Map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.