This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-26 (UTC)

  • Reading – New Orleans In Peril, Again? (Brendan Loy) #
  • MT @DLeonhardt: Little-noticed fact of the week: CBO says US econ will be stronger in 2022 if Taxmageddon occurs. #
  • MT @KevinGoldsmith: Once again, it is cheaper to buy the DVD and ship it then it is to buy the digital version. This industry is broken. #
  • RT @PeterHambyCNN: Mark Sanford is engaged to his Argentinian girlfriend. CNN exclusive photos of the couple > #
  • MT @natsecHeather: My take on GOP natsec plat: the grownups hung onto the MidEast sec let the crazy kids play elsewhere #
  • RT @joshtpm: This is excellent news for John McCain #
  • Reading – Parsing the RNC's national security platform (Heather Hurlburt) #
  • MT @RyanMaue: Well, enough of HWRF 00z is in for #Isaac Cat 4-5 on a straight line to New Orleans. Unbelievable. #
  • MT @RyanMaue: Everyone waiting on European Model to fire off first 72-96 hours due in at 2:05-2:10 AM … hit panic button or be "perplexed" #
  • @twitntwirp2012 On Rasmussen, never look at ANY individual poll. Ever. Always look at averages of several or you will be chasing ghosts. #
  • MT @RyanMaue: Some good news, GFDL goes N almost to Miami, means weaker Gulf landfall as large system near P'cola. #
  • @twitntwirp2012 All pollsters have house effects. Some fancier models try to compensate. I just avg them all and let that do the work. #
  • @twitntwirp2012 See some additional discussion of how I deal with outliers (or don't) in my post about the Florida flip #
  • Reading – DГ©jГ  Vu: Isaac’s Katrina Moment? (Brendan Loy) #
  • @twitntwirp2012 Dunno what they call it. :-) I tend toward the simple. So much uncertainty not sure additional complexity helps much. #
  • MT @RyanMaue: ECMWF 00z into Mobile that will prevent NHC from taking track any further W than that, until 12z tomorrow #
  • @twitntwirp2012 Honestly though I would have a blast making much more complicated models if it was my job instead of a spare time hobby. :-) #
  • @twitntwirp2012 Heh, no. Won't find me working for any pols any time soon. Besides, then I'd have to research their stuff, not mine. :-) #
  • Reading – Uncertainty Continues Regarding Isaac’s Track, Intensity (Brendan Loy) #
  • Reading – Prodigies Leaping Beyond Electronic Dance Music (Ben Sisario) #
  • Reading – Plot to Provoke war with Iran thwarted by Navy analyst (Juan Cole) #
  • Reading – Why was a Navy adviser stripped of her career? (Matthew Abbott) #
  • Reading – Reporters: Why are you in Tampa? (Jeff Jarvis) #
  • MT @brendanloy: GFDL joins HWRF and GFS in 6z run, predicting Louisiana landfall. #consistency #consensus? #isaac #
  • MT @brendanloy: Isaac MAY WELL NOT strengthen as forecast by models but that doesn't mean we can dismiss & ignore models. Must take srsly. #
  • RT @brendanloy: Here's the latest "spaghetti" track for #Isaac Consensus seems basically centered on NOLA & environs. #
  • RT @marsroverdriver: Flying cars, schmying cars. I want my Portal gun. #
  • Reading – Isaac A Major Threat to New Orleans; Is Anyone Paying Attention (Brendan Loy) #
  • Reading – The fall of Angry Birds (Trey Smith) #
  • RT @breakingstorm: Isaac hurricane watch expanded to include metropolitan New Orleans, Louisiana – ‏@usNWSgov #
  • Reading – An update on the Arctic sea-ice (rasmus, RealClimate) #
  • Reading – How Facebook design tricks people into trading away privacy (Cory Doctorow) #
  • Reading – Ryan 2012 v. Palin 2008 (Sam Wang) #
  • Reading – We Need Inflation-Tolerance, Not Inflation (Matthew Yglesias) #
  • Reading – Stuck with Akin (Seth Masket) #
  • Reading – Apple's 'iPad Mini' Media Event Planned for October (Eric Slivka) #
  • Reading – Jump! (Phil Plait) #
  • Reading – Everybody Jump (Randall Monroe) #
  • Reading – A Verdict That Alters an Industry (Brian X. Chen and Lisa Alcalay Klug) #
  • Reading – Hurricane Ryan passes. Duration: one news cycle (Sam Wang) #
  • Reading – Capitol Dome Is Imperiled by Cracks and a Partisan Divide (Jennifer Steinhauer) #
  • Reading – Why the next two weeks may be make-or-break for Romney-Ryan (Harry J Enten) #
  • Reading – Security Meltdown at Republican Convention in Tampa (Lauren Ashburn) #
  • Reading – 6 Years Ago Today, Pluto Was Demoted (Robinson Meyer) #
  • Reading – Without mediation (Jeff Jarvis) #
  • Reading – 26 Internet safety talking points (Scott McLeod) #
  • RT @owillis: hey rnc delegates… there's still time. #sarah #
  • RT @RyanMaue: No change with GFS 12z, still taking powerful #Isaac west of New Orleans. #
  • Reading – Yet another Jill Stein puff piece (Chris Faraone) #
  • RT @RyanMaue: HWRF 12z "outer nest" minimum pressure of 936 mb, that's solid Category 4 — into New Orleans. #
  • Really? Of course it is. MT @Chris_Moody: Barry Goldwater Jr. asks Ron Paul rally if US is better off now than in 1964. Crowd: “NOOOO!!!” #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @michaelpfalcone: In downtown Tampa, just spotted a fleet of cars with stuffed animal dogs strapped to the roof #Seamus #
  • RT @brendanloy: Imagine the politics of this if Romney had picked Jindal. #
  • MT @BigJoeBastardi: Amazing.. the mid point model spread is New Orleans. ECMWF tries to spare NOLA with track like Ivan. Pick your poison #
  • Reading – How Will Party Conventions Affect the Presidential Race? (John Sides) #
  • RT @JKWxman: Pressure now dropping in #Isaac per latest recon. Down to 992mb…strengthening has begun… #
  • RT @spann: 18Z model set. Euro is now an outlier to the east. Next NHC forecast track at 4 (CDT) #
  • MT @fivethirtyeight: "Always prep for 1 cat higher than 4cast, knowing that intensity-forecast skill is not high" #
  • RT @brendanloy: New Orleans planning to “shelter in place.” Did he miss the memo where it mentioned his city is below sea level? #
  • RT @brendanloy: Mayor Landrieu: on current path, storm should get here in 34 hours, but we’re not evacuating because meh, whatever. #WTFNOLA #
  • MT @brendanloy: New Orleans, your city gov’t doesn’t get it. They dont understand tail risk. You’re on your own. Get. The. Hell. Out. #isaac #
  • RT @brendanloy: “Depending on course and intensity, we may have…evacuations.” IT WILL BE TOO LATE #
  • RT @brendanloy: New Orleans City Council President says we should pray. Clearly, yes, that is the plan. #HopeIsNotAStrategy #

Not Looking Good… #Isaac

Grama Leslie Visit Day 4

Alex and the Pig

Amy joins the pig

Walking in the Market

Swimming with Daddy

I didn’t think the shower would make me wet

Keep Calm and Don’t Blink


Approaching the Mountain