This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-21 (UTC)

  • RT @ppppolls: Mitt Romney ever so slightly in the lead on our Wisconsin poll. Results out tomorrow #
  • RT @ppppolls: Last month we had Romney at 87% of GOP vote in Wisconsin, now 93%. That is probably the true Ryan effect- party unification #
  • RT @thinkprogress: UPDATE: Mitt Romney will not call on Todd Akin to drop out of the race #
  • RT @joshtpm: Sometimes I misspeak and inadvertently endorse bizarre medical theories w/no basis in science. #longday #misspoke #ovaaresmart #
  • MT @electionate: I think Romney’s chances depend more on making up several pts turnout than some 1980-redux where he sweeps undecided voters #
  • RT @mattdawidowicz: Obama is not “trading Wisconsin for Florida”. If these WI polls stick and Romney wins nationally, he will win both. #
  • RT @markos: Conservatives still hate Romney, but they can now vote FOR Ryan. Their challenge is to get everyone else to do so. #
  • RT @daveweigel: So, Medicare? I vaguely remember talking about that. #
  • RT @markos: Akin has five weeks to drop out, if he wants to: #
  • MT @owillis: akin: I used the wrong words in the wrong way. trans: sry i said what i actually believed. that stuff’s for the base not y’all. #
  • RT @Atrios: so there’s the forcible rape, and then the non-forcible kind #whatthefuck #
  • RT @owillis: really wish akin and his supporters could clearly delineate which forms of rape they are/aren’t ok with. asking for a friend. #
  • RT @MileHighBecky: I’d like to congratulate Claire McCaskill on 6 more years in the Senate. #
  • RT @HiCommander: Maybe we should convince the USN that it needs to send a boat to Titan. #
  • RT @HiCommander: After all, the USAF has a secret mini robot space shuttle. Why can’t the USN have a mini robot boat? On Titan. #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Not gonna lie. I’m a little bit heartbroken. We now officially have no outer planets missions in the works. #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Still operational: New Horizons, Cassini, and Juno. So sometime ~2018 will have no outer solar system missions. #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Luckily the Europeans are working on a mission to Europa. So, there’s that #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Didn’t count the Voyagers as outer solar system missions since they are presently leaving the solar system (=P to @asrivkin) #
  • MT @mckaycoppins: Seriously brutal @TheOnion “Pregnant Woman Relieved To Learn Her Rape Was Illegitimate” #
  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: A photo of Todd Aiken posing with a sign that reads “You can’t fix stupid.” #
  • Reading – When the Polling Gets Weird (Nate Silver) #
  • RT @ppppolls: After all that Akin STILL leads McCaskill, 44-43. Little difference from our last poll which was Akin 45-44 #
  • RT @dandrezner: And the other 25% were on crack? MT @ppppolls: 75% of Missouri voters think Akin’s comments were inappropriate #
  • Reading – Romney Says Todd Akin Should Exit Missouri Senate Race (Charles Johnson) #

Electoral College: Michigan Swings Too

So, just as July was very bad for Romney, August has so far been very good for Romney. Today’s move is the state of Michigan, with 16 electoral votes:

Over the course of the last year, Michigan has polled all over the place, ranging from Polls showing Romney ahead by 5%, to polls showing Obama ahead by 18%. A huge range. More recently the five poll average had an Obama lead of 6%. Today’s update pulls that down to 4%. Since that is below my 5% threshold, Michigan once again goes into the “could go either way” category. 4% is just a very slim lead that can disappear pretty easily with the back and forth of the news cycle. This of course improves Romney’s “Best Case” in my model:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 317 221
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 180 358

With this update, Romney’s “best case” (where he wins ALL the close states) is better than it has been since February. Over the past few weeks, he has diminished Obama’s lead in several critical states. The “current” line in my model, where each candidate wins all the states they are even slightly ahead in, has stubbornly stayed still at Obama 332 Romney 206 for almost three months now. But getting states close has to happen before states jump over the line.

There are now 9 states where Obama is ahead, but by less than a 5% margin… which can be considered very vulnerable. Of those Obama’s leads in Florida (29 ev), Ohio (18 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Colorado (9 ev) and Iowa (6 ev) are all actually less than *2%*. Those five states could really flip at almost the drop of a hat. They are right on the edge. That is 75 electoral votes right on the verge of going over to Romney’s side of the fence with a few positive news cycles for Romney. And guess what. Move those 75 votes to the other side and Romney wins 281 to 257.

Obama is still significantly ahead in the electoral college analysis at the moment. And Romney has never been ahead in this analysis. But the above serves to show just how quickly things can change. Over the last few weeks things have moved quite nicely in Romney’s direction and there are a lot of states that could easily move further.

This isn’t even close to over yet. The amount of time left is getting shorter all the time, but if Romney keeps things moving in this direction, this could get very interesting!

Note: Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

A Little Boy with a Little Curl

Taken 2012 Aug 17 08:09 UTC