This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-31 (UTC)

  • .@mattyglesias No election other than the very first can be the most important… EVERYTHING after would be different based on first winner. #
  • Reading – Should we bring back "Crossfire" (Seth Masket) #
  • MT @brendanloy: Once upon a time fact-checking wasn’t part of journalism. It WAS journalism. We don’t need less of it. We need way way more. #
  • @twitntwirp2012 All pols stretch and distort truth, but the R's seem to be making a real art of it this year! #
  • Guess I'm watching Clint Eastwood. #
  • Clint seems a little lost. Is he just ad-libbing? Not sure about the talking to the chair thing. #
  • This is not going well for Clint. At least on TV. The crowd there seems to be OK with it. #
  • Poor Clint. #
  • Is he done yet? #
  • What is he saying? #
  • Wow. That was a bit nuts. #
  • Will Rubio talk to an empty chair too? #
  • Generally bored by these autobiographical bits. Although Obama's was good in 2004. #
  • RT @ClintsChair Okay, I'm sick of taking this sitting down #
  • First time I'm really watching Rubio do anything. Not super impressed so far. #
  • Looks real young though. Is he 12? #
  • RT @HuffPostHill Somewhere backstage, Clint is still talking to the chair. #
  • RT @mattyglesias FACTCHECK: There's no clear evidence that God exists. #
  • Rubio's getting better as he goes along, but the toddler is climbing on me making it hard to listen. #
  • I can see some of the Rubio appeal, but he probably does need another few years to season. We'll see how he looks in in 2016 or 2020. #
  • RT @joshtpm New line item added to RNC manual: No ad-lib speeches by famous actors over 80. No exceptions. #
  • Here's Romney! (Read in Ed McMahon voice.) #
  • Here we go. #
  • He accepts! (Surprise!) #
  • iPod joke. Bleh. #
  • My Slingbox audio and video are out of sync. Distracting. Bleh. #
  • He seems to be stumbling over some of the lines. A few garbled sentences here and there. #
  • "Hug your kids, spend more time praying." Uh, OK. #
  • Oh no, the biographical part. Snooze. #
  • Armstrong call out. #
  • This would have been more interesting with Gingrich. Or Santorum. #
  • I found Waldo! #
  • Mitt has friends who are women. #
  • Is he going to cry? #
  • This disappointed with Obama thing resonates, but will the disappointed people really prefer Mitt? #
  • MT @CenteredPols You know theres something wrong as president when the best feeling you had was the day you voted for him. /devastating line #
  • MT @sullydish "He believes jobs come from govt." Really? private/public sector job record under GB & BO in first terms: #
  • Steve Jobs would be a big Romney fan. Not. #
  • MT @BuzzFeedBen The thing about Romney He does deliver. This is the speech he needed. Doesn't blow it away, but does what he needs to do. #
  • Drill baby drill! Oh wait… #
  • RT @petersuderman Why not just go ahead and promise energy independence – and *unicorns*? Just as plausible, but way more awesome. #
  • No new taxes! Read my… oh wait. #
  • OK, that Obama ocean line was really bad. He shouldn't have said that. Obama deserves being made fun of for that. #
  • He actually isn't doing bad on the speechifying part. Ignoring the content. Just delivery. Better as he finishes up. #
  • Balloons? Where are the balloons? #
  • Balloons waiting for Ryan? He's there now. Balloons please. #
  • Balloons! #
  • That was OK, not great. But that might be all he needed for the moment. #
  • Actually, he probably needed more. Not sure that will have changed many minds or swung many actually undecided voters. #
  • Since he is currently behind, he needs something to start moving people over to his side. #
  • It won't help that tomorrow more people will be talking about Eastwood than Romney. #
  • OK, enough of that. Dinner time. #
  • Hear hear! RT @markos: Choosing one's company over family doesn't make one a hero. I refuse to miss my kids' games and performances. #
  • RT @JoeMuto: Nothing says "Party of the Future" like a rambling old man mumbling to an empty chair. #

Curmudgeon’s Corner: They have your Eyeball

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam talks about:

  • Electoral College Update
  • Twitter Rule Changes
  • Paulites at the RNC
  • Condi / Ryan Speeches

Recorded on 27 Aug 2012

Length this week – 1:07:44

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes Download MP3 File
View Podcast in iTunes View Raw XML Feed

[Edit 2012 Aug 31 20:51 UTC to make it just “Sam talks about” instead of “Sam and Ivan”.]

Grama Leslie Visit Day 9

Playing with the EXAL train!

Walking with Grandma Leslie

Grandma Getting a Picture

Blurry, but Grandma really wanted this shot of Alex and Daddy walking together. :-) (Photo by Grandma Leslie)


Father and Daughter (Photo by Grandma Leslie)

[Photo of Brandy on the couch by Grandma Leslie Censored]

Packing to go

Alex and Grandma Leslie with sleeping Alex

This might be worth opening one eye. Maybe.

[Photo of Brandy with Grandma Leslie and Alex Censored]

[Photo of Amy, Brandy, Grandma Leslie and Alex Censored]

Back to sleep on Grandma Leslie

And then she was off. Goodbye Grandma Leslie!

Alex woke up in the car to say goodbye though. (Photo by Grandma Leslie)

And Daddy went off to work! (For the record, that is not me on the zipline.)

Electoral College: Missouri Red Again

One update today, and it is Missouri reversing the move it made on the 25th:

As you can see, polling in Missouri lately has been a bit, uh, wild. The last five polls, which only go back about a week and a half, have ranged from an Obama lead of 1%, to a Romney lead of 17%. That is just all over the place. I’m not sure that public opinion is really swinging quite so much so fast and there is something odd with the polls instead, but we have what we have. Before the two new polls I added today, the five poll average had a Romney lead of 3.8%. The two new polls were very good for Romney and we are now up to a Romney lead of a full 9%!

This is a very quick moment in Romney’s direction. I guess if there was indeed any movement away from the Democrats due to Akin, the backlash is now in full effect. Most of the last year Romney has been ahead in Missouri, but not by much. If the trend of the last few polls holds up, it looks like Obama’s support in Missouri pretty much collapsed and the state may even be heading toward my “Strong Romney” category.

With the polling as all over the place though, I’d reserve judgement on that. The next polls may move in the opposite direction. For the moment though, Missouri is very much in the “Weak Romney” category, meaning Romney has a pretty substantial advantage there, but not so large that he can feel safe completely ignoring the state.

This change once again reduces Obama’s best case:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 317 221
Current Status 235 303
Obama Best Case 180 358

This means that even in his best case, Obama can’t reach his 365 to 173 victory margin from 2008. Even though Romney has had a good month in our models, Obama is still ahead… but the margins from 2008 are veery unlikely. This will be closer than 2008 unless something dramatic changes.

Note: Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

Edit 2012 Sep 6 09:34 UTC to add final note.