This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-30 (UTC)

  • @BYUfan I think including military is fair. After all, that is a significant portion of what the Fed Government does. #
  • @BYUfan As for pre new deal, I am sure you are right, but I spent time looking for good pre-1940’s data to confirm and it is hard to find! #
  • Reading – ‘No Easy Day,’ Bin Laden Raid Book: Osama Was Unarmed (Marcus Baram) #
  • Reading – A Moment of Polling Clarity (Nate Silver) #
  • Reading – White Terrorist Plot to Assassinate the ‘Commander in Chief’ (Juan Cole) #
  • Reading – If you skip that first paragraph, Condoleezza Rice gave a great speech (Daniel W. Drezner) #
  • Reading – Poll Analysis: Even more Ryan bump (Darryl, HorsesAss) #
  • Reading – Top Ten Repeated Paul Ryan Lies (Juan Cole) #
  • MT @ggreenwald: I loathe much of what Rice did in office but this is easily the best speech of the convention: political efficacy + delivery #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @timkmak: RT @marcambinder: Ok, HRC v. Condi in 2016 is on. #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: Key line of that speech: “She could be President of the United States if she wanted to be.” #
  • RT @chrislhayes: Did Condi just declare she’s running for Pres? Also, this is by far the best speech given so far. #
  • RT @JeffreyGoldberg: Why exactly isn’t Condi Rice currently the Republican candidate for President? #
  • RT @electionate: RICE: that’s why I accept your nomination for the… oh wait. #
  • RT @BuzzFeedBen: Weird to say of a former Sec of State, but so far Condi’s the one being made by this convention. #
  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Wow, I don’t think anyone was expecting that. #
  • @DonnerKay @JeffreyGoldberg Yup. And a dozen other things. GOP needs to get over that. Maybe someday. #
  • MT @natsecHeather: not political. also not a good NSA. y’all are kidding yrselves @zerlinamaxwell RT @marcambinder Ok, HRC v. Condi in 2016 #
  • And say no. MT @TheFix: When the GOP nomination is open next Condi has ensured she is going to get asked about running relentlessly #gop2012 #
  • RT @sullydish: Condi seemed more like Christie – a moment for self-advancement, rather than ticket-promotion. #
  • RT @dandrezner: Wait, is Paul Ryan blasting Obama on Smpson-Bowles? Didn’t he vote against that commission? #
  • RT @chucktodd: Ryan criticizes POTUS for opposing the same Bowles-Simpson plan that Ryan opposed. #
  • On Ryan RT @HunterDK: Well, the fact-checkers all hung themselves about ten minutes ago, so I hope he doesn’t go on much longer. #
  • RT @owillis: shorter ryan: derp, derp, derp. audience: derp! derp! DERRRRP! #
  • MT @sullydish: Where I get really pissed off. He’s blaming lower national credit rating – created by Republicans, led by Ryan – on Obama. #
  • MT @NickBaumann: News thing about Ryan’s speech is huge chunks of it are not true. If that’s not your lede/hed, you’re not doing your job. #
  • RT @mckaycoppins: Paul Ryan really doing everything right with this speech. The GOP base is in mad, hot love with him. #
  • RT @owillis: paul ryan is hip and with it, he’s cited bands from 30 yrs ago as proof of this. #
  • RT @CitizenCohn: Ryan: Let’s make “the safety net safe again” By wrecking food stamps and Medicaid? Seriously, I’m speechless. #GOP2012 #
  • RT @asymmetricinfo: Chris Matthews seems surprised and angry that Paul Ryan gave a campaign speech on the podium tonight. #
  • MT @LarrySabato: Best Ryan line: College grads shouldnt have to live out their 20s in childhood bedrooms staring up at fading Obama posters. #
  • Reading – Unwelcome Houseguest Isaac Just Won’t Take A Hint (Brendan Loy) #
  • Reading – The Lies And Lies And Lies Of Paul Ryan (Andrew Sullivan) #
  • RT @iboudreau It’s fun watching conservatives now objecting to the concept of factual accuracy. #
  • Reading – Two Keynotes: Why Obama Succeeded and Christie Failed (Steve Coll) #
  • Reading – The Face of Romney’s Foreign Policy (Ta-Nehisi Coates) #
  • Reading – Obama, Romney, and the Poll Mystery (Jonathan Chait) #
  • Reading – Reddit: another example that Obama gets it and the GOP doesn’t (Connor Livingston) #

Grama Leslie Visit Day 8

Amy and Grandma Leslie at dinner.

Yeah. Not much happened on Day 8. That’s all I got.

Electoral College: Obama Weakens in Connecticut

One state changing status today, and that is Connecticut, where Obama’s lead has diminished:

Connecticut has been fairly sparsely polled, being generally considered to be a pretty safe Obama state. But there have been a few new polls recently, and they have shown Obama’s lead somewhat diminished from the levels it had been at most of the last year. With today’s update, Obama’s lead in the five poll average drops to 9.6%.

Now, that is still a pretty substantial lead, but it moves Connecticut from my “Strong Obama” category to my “Weak Obama” category. In general, this represents states where the candidate has a definite lead, but not so large a lead that it is safe to ignore the state. The right set of events could potentially reduce the lead further and make the state competitive.

Having said that, it would take a pretty substantial change in the dynamics of the race to make Connecticut competitive, so that is not expected. But the slow deterioration of Obama’s margin in the state may still be something to watch.

Since Connecticut neither is nor was a “too close to call” state, the three models I track do not change:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 317 221
Current Status 235 303
Obama Best Case 170 368

Note: Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

Edit 2012 Sep 6 09:33 UTC to fix link in final note.