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Electoral College: Trump Rebound Continues

Now that the nominees are essentially certain, state level general election polling is ramping up quickly. It has only been a few days since the last update to my electoral college models, but there have already been polls in New Jersey, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But of these, it was the new poll in North Carolina that made a difference.

chart-150

Trump gets his best individual poll result in North Carolina since last December, and the poll average moves from a Clinton lead of 5.2% to a Clinton lead of only 3.2%. With North Carolina once again within reach, Trump’s best case improves:

chart-151

Now if Trump wins all the states he leads, plus all the states where Clinton’s lead is less than 5%, he squeaks out a 10 electoral vote win. Between this and Florida, this puts him back on the plus side for his “best case” after just under a month where even this rosy scenario was underwater for him.

Since North Carolina had been the tipping point, that metric also moves:

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The tipping point state is now Florida, where Clinton leads by 4.2%.

From January to the beginning of May, there were 12 changes to the “bubble” and 8 changes to the tipping point. Only one of each category was in Trump’s direction. Overwhelmingly those months were a story of Trump’s position against Clinton deteriorating.

Since then we have two bubble changes and two tipping point changes, but all four have been moves in Trump’s direction. It is certainly looking like Trump hit bottom and is now bouncing back. The question is of course how far he bounces, and how long it lasts.

165.4 days until the polls start to close on election night.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Edit 23:36 UTC to adjust sentence order in the first paragraph.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-05-26 (UTC)

  • 14:39:43 AP says they have found enough uncommitted dels to put Trump over 1237. ElectionGraphs will update as there is info on specific delegates.
  • 14:41:26 As of our last update Trump needed 22 more dels & there were 32 uncommitted dels who had not expressed a preference. https://t.co/Tb9PhOQX4Z
  • 14:42:54 Guess AP spent yesterday calling those 32 uncommitted delegates and at least 22 of them said “Trump”. Hopefully more specific info soon.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-05-26 (UTC)

  • 16:08:25 Poll Added: Gravis in VA from 2016-05-24 to 2016-05-24 – Clinton 45% to Trump 41% https://t.co/D6fdogGXln
  • 16:14:41 Poll Added: Gravis in VA from 2016-05-24 to 2016-05-24 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% to Johnson 6% – Logged but not on site.
  • 16:18:00 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2016-05-20 to 2016-05-22 – Clinton 41% to Trump 43% to Johnson 3% to Stein 2% – Logged but not on site.
  • 16:20:27 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2016-05-20 to 2016-05-22 – Clinton 43% to Trump 47% https://t.co/8gsYklSkIf
  • 16:20:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NC has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/8gsYklSkIf
  • 16:22:37 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 5.2 in NC -> Clinton by 4.2 in FL https://t.co/nXG1mZ0pL3
  • 16:22:38 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 279 to Trump 259 -> Clinton 264 to Trump 274 https://t.co/nXG1mZ0pL3
  • 16:24:40 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2016-05-20 to 2016-05-22 – Sanders 43% to Trump 40% to Johnson 3% to Stein 2% – Logged but not on site.
  • 16:26:00 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2016-05-20 to 2016-05-22 – Sanders 48% to Trump 44% https://t.co/LJsuZ5ygY6
  • 16:26:05 Sanders vs Trump state category change: NC has moved from Solid Sanders to Strong Sanders https://t.co/LJsuZ5ygY6
  • 16:33:10 Poll Added: PPIC in CA from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-22 – Clinton 49% to Trump 39% https://t.co/iQuAIXty8O
  • 16:35:36 Poll Added: PPIC in CA from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-22 – Sanders 53% to Trump 36% https://t.co/5xDnroc8pI
  • 16:52:20 Poll Added: Zogby in OH from 2016-05-18 to 2016-05-22 – Clinton 45% to Trump 39% https://t.co/xGgOc0ro8R
  • 19:01:33 Poll Added: Zogby w/Other in OH from 2016-05-18 to 2016-05-22 – Clinton 42% to Trump 35% https://t.co/JBaB5FCtjn
  • 19:05:17 Poll Added: Zogby w/Other in OH from 2016-05-18 to 2016-05-22 – Sanders 46% to Trump 35% https://t.co/39OKcd8IQ1
  • 19:09:32 Poll Added: Zogby in OH from 2016-05-18 to 2016-05-22 – Clinton 38% to Trump 33% to Johnson 6% to Stein 3% – Logged but not on site.
  • 19:11:22 Poll Added: Zogby in OH from 2016-05-18 to 2016-05-22 – Sanders 43% to Trump 32% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2% – Logged but not on site.
  • 19:17:01 Poll Added: POS in WI from 2016-05-10 to 2016-05-12 – Clinton 43% to Trump 31% https://t.co/ZfkRJner2e
  • 19:27:24 Polls in VA/NC/CA/OH/WI in today’s scan. There was a change of note, so blog post on @ElectionGraphs later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-05-26 (UTC)