This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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April 2008
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Electoral College: Many New Polls, Uncertainty Increases

SurveyUSA released 15 new state by state polls today. Of those, 4 caused status changes in my rolling averages. In order of electoral votes:

  • Ohio (20 ev) moved from weak McCain to leaning McCain
  • Virginia (13 ev) moved from weak McCain to leaning McCain
  • Missouri (11 ev) moved from leaning McCain to weak McCain
  • New Mexico (5 ev) moved from weak Obama to leaning Obama

The end result of all that is 27 more electoral votes are now in the “leaning” categories, meaning the number of states and electoral votes that really could very easily go either way is increased dramatically over yesterday. The range between McCain’s best case and Obama’s best case is widening again reversing a narrowing trend from the last few weeks.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 357, Obama 181
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 281, McCain 257

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