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November 2008
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Electoral College: Called – Nebraska (Omaha District) for McCain

This is an update covering the 15 minutes before 07:30 UTC.

CNN has now called the 1 electoral vote for the Omaha district of Nebraska. It joins the rest of the state and goes for McCain.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprises. Four states still outstanding. North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Montana have yet to be called.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

The Speech

Anyone who is not at least a little moved is not alive. I was a lot moved.

Full text:

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.

It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled – Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he’s fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.

I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation’s next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House. And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics – you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to – it belongs to you.

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington – it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.

It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.

I know you didn’t do this just to win an election and I know you didn’t do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime – two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor’s bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you – we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years – block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek – it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers – in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.

Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House – a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, “We are not enemies, but friends…though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection.” And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn – I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world – our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down – we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security – we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright – tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.

For that is the true genius of America – that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing – Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons – because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America – the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that “We Shall Overcome.” Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves – if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time – to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth – that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.

Electoral College: Called – Alaska

This is the 06:45 UTC update, reflecting states that were called in the 15 minutes before that time.

Just one. Alaska, as expected, was called for Sarah Palin… uh… John McCain.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprise states. North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, and the Omaha district of Nebraska yet to be called.

(I made a correction to the 04:45 update at 06:03 UTC to reflect the fact that 1 of Nebraska’s electoral votes had not yet been called. The graphs have been corrected accordingly.)

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Nebraska…

Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of Nebraska’s 5 electoral votes. I guess I’ll adjust the graph… Obama might actually pick up that 1 electoral vote from Omaha. Maybe.

Catch Up

OK, now that I have time to breath while waiting for these last five states to be called, I can look at the 936 items that have built up in my Google reader while I was tracking the results, or the 137 emails I’ve gotten in that same time period. (Yeah, most of those are automated mails I get whenever I make blog posts, of which I’ve done a few tonight. :-)

But still, lots to catch up on.

I hope those last five states get called quickly though. In the last 30 minutes, I’ve actually started to think that maybe I’ll be able to sleep tonight after all. :-)

Obama Speech

I have been so busy trying to catch up on the graphs for the results, I didn’t comment on the speech yet. But it was very powerful. It was Obama fully in post-partisan unifying mode. And as usual when he is in that mode, he pulled all the right strings. It was inspiring and made one feel proud.

Speech aside, the moment itself was exceptionally powerful. Even as I was furiously making graphs, I admit I shed a tear or two. The morning will see us begin to see what an Obama administration will actually look like. And it can not possibly life up to the expectations that have been built up. But for the moment, it was good to just absorb the moment and the historic impact of today.

Electoral College: Called – South Dakota, Nebraska and Nevada

This is the 04:45 UTC update, covering states that were called in the 15 minutes before that.

South Dakota and Nebraska for McCain.

Nevada for Obama.

I’l drop the “SuperBest” estimates from the summary, as there are no longer any uncalled “Weak” states.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

There have still been no surprise states.

I am now once again caught up with all the states CNN has called. There are still five states yet to be called. Alaska, which should go McCain. And then North Carolina, Indiana and Montana which are leaning McCain. And finally Missouri which was leaning Obama.

We’ll see if any of those end up being surprises. North Carolina and Missouri were both within a percent as of the last polls. If there is a surprise, I would guess it would be one of those two states. But Indiana or Montana switching would also be well within the realm of possibility.

So far my final predictions from right before the polls closed are 46 for 46. We’ll see how the last 5 states go. :-)

Edit 06:03 UTC – Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of the 5 electoral votes for Nebraska. Looks like that 1 electoral vote (probably Omaha) is still too close to call. Gotta love the states that split their votes.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Electoral College: Called – Arizona, Colorado and Florida

This is the 04:30 update, covering states called in the 15 minutes prior to that time.

Three states called. Arizona for McCain. Colorado and Florida for Obama.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 333, McCain 205
McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160
Obama SuperBest: Obama 378, McCain 160

There have still been no surprise states.

Electoral College: Called – CA, OR, WA, HI, ID – Pushed Obama Over 270

This is the 04:15 UTC update, covering the states that were called in the 15 minutes previous to that time.

These are the states that pushed Obama over the top. All were “Strong” states.

California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii for Obama.
Idaho for McCain.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 297, McCain 241
McCain Best Case: Obama 311, McCain 227

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 388, McCain 150

Still no surprises.

McCain Concession

That was quite gracious, although the crowd wasn’t always. You could see the sadness and disappointment. And Palin was crying. It makes you wonder if they had actually been deluding themselves over the last month into thinking they actually did have a chance. It has been clear for awhile that they were done absent a major event… that never happened.