This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Nevada Finishes Up

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.

So, we now have the rest of the results from Nevada. Compared to the update yesterday… everybody gains 2 more delegates… splitting the 8 that were remaining after yesterdays update evenly. That brings us for a total in Nevada of 14 for Romney, 6 for Gingrich, 5 for Paul and 3 for Santorum.

On our nifty “% of delegates remaining needed to win” we actually have the situation between yesterday and today of EVERYBODY moving a bit further away from the nomination than they were yesterday. This is because with the even split in delegates, given where everybody started, nobody actually exceeded the percentages they needed to stay on track for cinching. But if you consider Nevada as a whole, not just today’s update, you see that the overall picture is that Romney’s holding just about steady (very slight improvement) in how close he is to the nomination… this really didn’t help him all that much by that metric… but everybody else falls further and further behind…

We still have the situation that so far Romney has 61.5% of the delegates… but he only needs 49.2% of the remaining delegates to win, so he can actually do slightly worse than he has been doing so far and still win…. while Gingrich, his nearest competitor, has only managed 23.1% of the delegates so far, but would need to get 52.0%… more than DOUBLE what he has been getting so far, in order to catch up and win.

Now, that might still be possible… if some of the other candidates drop out… but while improving by a few percent is easy to see as possible, more than doubling how you have been doing so far is getting to be a really far stretch. Again, candidates dropping out could change dynamics. But as long as we have the four we have right now, the views forward for any of the non-Romneys involve them suddenly starting to do massively better than they have so far, so something dramatic would need to change. (Some would argue that some of the states coming up are dramatically different by their nature and this is the chance that these guys need. We shall see I guess… But it is seeming unlikely.)

@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-05 (UTC)

  • Reading – Things to Know Before the Nevada Results Come In (Paul Constant) http://t.co/MZBPbhLR #
  • Reading – Apple pulls OS X 10.7.3 delta upgrade after crash complaints, redirects to Combo Update (Bryan Bishop) http://t.co/Kif2eyz4 #
  • MT @DemConWatch: Current, way too early, NV del estimate: Romney: 12, Gingrich: 7, Paul: 5, Santorum 4. #
  • Reading – Roseanne's In, Because Why Not? (Paul Constant) http://t.co/c8XnKyen #
  • MT @ppppolls: Tues has the potential to be huge day for Santorum. Has a chance to win in MO and MN, finish 2nd in CO: http://t.co/KoVGEDQj #
  • RT @ppppolls: Pretty strong chance that Santorum will be perceived as main threat to Romney after Tuesday's contests: http://t.co/KoVGEDQj #
  • Reading – Ron Paul Not Deterred By Nevada Loss, Says 'Chaos' In Delegate Count (Sahil Kapur) http://t.co/Bjvnefve #
  • Reading – U.S. drones targeting rescuers and mourners (Glenn Greenwald) http://t.co/TJe5nDW9 #
  • Reading – At Nevada's Conspiracy Caucus, the Paul Army Wins (Molly Ball) http://t.co/UWMmpCaM #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Partial Nevada Results

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.

So, Nevada is being very slow in providing results for their caucuses. I waited and waited, but as of 22:00 UTC, I decided it was time to go ahead and post today’s update even though the final delegate counts for Nevada are not yet fully determined. As of an update posted around 14 UTC, The Green Papers gives 12 delegates to Romney, 4 to Gingrich, 3 to Paul and 1 for Santorum… with 8 yet to be determined. These are estimates pending the final vote counts. I imagine I’ll be posting an update tomorrow with the disposition of at least some of those 8 delegates.

Based on the results so far though, despite actually getting some delegates this time since it was a proportional contest, only Romney actually did well enough to improve their overall position in the race. Romney needs a slightly smaller percentage of the remaining delegates to cinch the nomination that he did yesterday. For everybody else, even though they got some delegates, they did not get enough delegates to actually be catching up with Romney. They are only falling further behind.

@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-04 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Newt gets a 3rd Super

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.

This is not a repeat from yesterday. DCW reports yet another superdelegate coming out for Gingrich. If he continues to pick up a superdelegate every day he’ll, uh, still be way behind.

In any case, the Nevada caucuses are happening today, so we’ll see bigger changes in the charts soon… by all reports though, Romney’s lead in Nevada is pretty large though. But it is proportional rather than winner take all, so just how each of the four do will matter to the delegate race… but Romney will still be ahead.

@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-03 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Newt gets a 2nd Super

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.

No big change today, but DCW brings news that Gingrich has picked up another super delegate. Woo!

This of course slightly improves Gingrich’s position, slightly worsens everybody else’s, but in the end leaves things pretty much where they were.

The next major batch of delegates is still the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.

@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-02 (UTC)

  • Reading – Florida primary might not be a done deal (Carl Cameron) http://t.co/badsIbg1 #
  • MT @FHQ: Newt Gingrich, Go ahead and challenge Arizona now. It is winner-take-all on February 28 too. No need to wait until the last minute #
  • Reading – War on the Internet (Rick Falkvinge) http://t.co/nyT8WIv3 #
  • Reading – Conservatives Do Massive Facepalm Over Romney’s ‘Very Poor’ Gaffe (Benjy Sarlin) http://t.co/F1YhRwYT #
  • Reading – Confronting the myth of the rational insurgent (Erica Chenoweth) http://t.co/krsf5jL7 #
  • RT EmilyABC: ABC NEWS EXCLUSIVE: Romney to get Secret Service protection this week. http://t.co/BG2KQV6D #
  • Reading – How Long Is Romney’s Road to the Nomination? (Sabato, Kondik, Skelley) http://t.co/Wb1Om1fp #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: After Florida

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.

So Florida has played out exactly as it looked like it will for the last week or so. Gingrich’s brief spike in the polls after South Carolina subsided rapidly, and Romney won Florida handily. As a winner take all state (absent any contesting of the rules changing that in the future) the margin doesn’t matter though, Romney gets all 50 delegates from the state.

By our count this now gives Romney 82 delegates, or 65.1% of the delegates that have been determined so far. Gingrich is still in second, but way behind with 28 delegates, or 22.2% of the delegates.

From our preferred view above, you can see that this of course is very good for Romney, very bad for everybody else. He is now in a much better position than everybody else, and in the best position he has been in so far. He now only needs about 49.2% of the remaining delegates… compared to his record so far of 65.1% of the delegates. So he can actually do worse than he has been doing so far and still grab the nomination.

Every other candidate must significantly improve on their existing performances to catch up and win. For instance, Gingrich must win 51.7% of remaining delegates, which would be more than double his track record so far of 22.2%. Of course, winner take all states like Florida massively distort this sort of thing, but that is what we have with Florida, and this still shows the size of the mountain the other candidates would need to climb to get back into contention. Winning is not enough, they must start winning by very significant margins (not in popular vote, in delegates) in order to catch up. As we go on, this will get harder and harder.

Next up, the Nevada caucuses on Saturday… 28 delegates, proportional.