This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



February 2016

Democrats: Some Superdelegate Updates

I’ve promised not to post every day there is an update of a superdelegate here or there. Instead, I’ll generally include them in the next post after an actual primary or caucus. However, if enough accumulate, I’ll go ahead and do a post just on superdelegates. There have been 10 superdelegate changes since my last post on the Democrats. That’s as good a threshold as any, so here is a quick update.

First of all, I probably should have made this change before that last post, but I didn’t… O’Malley dropped out on caucus night shortly after the results started coming in, as it was immediately clear that as expected he would not have a good night. If O’Malley had earned actual pledged delegates, they would remain in his column until such time as O’Malley formally released them. But these superdelegates are always free agents, and with O’Malley out, there is no reason to believe their previous endorsements of O’Malley still stand. So I zeroed out O’Malley’s three superdelegates. Goodbye O’Malley.

In addition, news reports showed 5 new Clinton superdelegates in Illinois, and 2 new Clinton superdelegates in Iowa.

So, net Change: Clinton +7, O’Malley -3.

New “% of remaining needed to win chart”:


And the updated data chart:

Screen Shot 2016-02-04 at 12.26.31430

As of my post-Iowa summary post, Sanders needed 54.30% of the remaining delegates to catch up. That is now up to 54.36%.

In terms of New Hampshire specifically, this doesn’t matter of course. Either way Sanders needs 14 of the 24 delegates that will be allocated based on the primary in order to be on a pace to catch Clinton.

Five days until New Hampshire.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

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