This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

Categories

Calendar

February 2016
S M T W T F S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
2829  

Republicans: Iowa results officially certified, Huckabee gets a delegate too!

The Iowa results on the Republican side were officially certified on Wednesday, earlier than anybody expected, and with a surprise. Almost every source believed 27 delegates would be decided by the caucus results, but the remaining 3 “automatic delegates” who are party leaders, would attend the convention unbound and able to support whoever they wished. But it looks like those three delegates will be bound by the caucus results as well.

When you do the required math on 30 delegates instead of 27, everything remains the same, except Huckabee gets a delegate too.

Updating the chart showing the “% of remaining needed to win” graph:

chart-33

And the raw numbers:

Screen Shot 2016-02-04 at 13.17.12929

Huckabee and Paul have suspended their campaigns, but since these are bound delegates, they keep them unless the candidates officially release them. I haven’t seen a report of that yet, so won’t remove them from the list at this point. Not that it matters much for single delegates. This is a much more important factor when candidates drop out later in the race once they have already accumulated a significantly sized chunk of delegates.

Huckabee’s one delegate makes no difference to the analysis I posted Tuesday or the follow up from Wednesday.

We still have three candidates showing strength going into New Hampshire It is within the realm of possibility that New Hampshire will add a fourth to that list, but just as likely it will solidify the “three way race” picture. And as I outlined in the Wednesday post the specific New Hampshire delegate rules matter a lot. Specifically the rules essentially give extra bonus delegates to the winner, and don’t allow delegates at all for anyone coming in under 10%. This is a recipe to transform a plurality win to a healthy delegate majority.

So if you are watching the polls as they start to include post-Iowa data, watch carefully not only who is in the lead, but exactly who is above or below the 10% threshold, because that will make a huge difference in the delegate counts.

And an 8-7-7 split with only 1.21% of delegates determined is essentially a tie. And a tie that will soon be overwhelmed numerically by the results from New Hampshire and beyond. So don’t get sucked too deeply into the spin from all quarters taking about who is up and who is doomed. It is still too early for that. (Well, at least if you don’t drop out.)

Five days until New Hampshire.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Democrats: Some Superdelegate Updates

I’ve promised not to post every day there is an update of a superdelegate here or there. Instead, I’ll generally include them in the next post after an actual primary or caucus. However, if enough accumulate, I’ll go ahead and do a post just on superdelegates. There have been 10 superdelegate changes since my last post on the Democrats. That’s as good a threshold as any, so here is a quick update.

First of all, I probably should have made this change before that last post, but I didn’t… O’Malley dropped out on caucus night shortly after the results started coming in, as it was immediately clear that as expected he would not have a good night. If O’Malley had earned actual pledged delegates, they would remain in his column until such time as O’Malley formally released them. But these superdelegates are always free agents, and with O’Malley out, there is no reason to believe their previous endorsements of O’Malley still stand. So I zeroed out O’Malley’s three superdelegates. Goodbye O’Malley.

In addition, news reports showed 5 new Clinton superdelegates in Illinois, and 2 new Clinton superdelegates in Iowa.

So, net Change: Clinton +7, O’Malley -3.

New “% of remaining needed to win chart”:

chart-32

And the updated data chart:

Screen Shot 2016-02-04 at 12.26.31430

As of my post-Iowa summary post, Sanders needed 54.30% of the remaining delegates to catch up. That is now up to 54.36%.

In terms of New Hampshire specifically, this doesn’t matter of course. Either way Sanders needs 14 of the 24 delegates that will be allocated based on the primary in order to be on a pace to catch Clinton.

Five days until New Hampshire.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Finally Past Iowa

We made it past Iowa! We have Iowa results! We have brand new speculation about New Hampshire and beyond! Yes, of course, the bulk of this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast is Sam and Ivan discussing where the presidential race sits in this week between Iowa and New Hampshire. We go over all of the results so far, then discuss how candidates, the media and the public are reacting to those results, and what that means for the rest of the contest. Plus, for the first time in a little while, we do a lightning round as well, covering bluetooth audio issues, Iran, the Flint water crisis, tech earnings results, and more!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20151125bw
Recorded 2016-02-04

Length this week – 2:12:09

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
 View Podcast in iTunes
 View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook

Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:05:11) Intro
    • Pi O’Clock Again
    • Agenda
    • Talking Politics
  • (0:06:00-0:29:42) Republicans in Iowa
    • Loser.com
    • Headlines
    • Delegate Totals
    • Spin
    • Polling Wrong?
    • People Dropping Out
    • Carson/Cruz blow up
    • Speeches
  • (0:30:45-0:43:55) Democrats in Iowa
    • Close Race
    • Not a Surprise
    • Delegate Totals
    • Spin
    • Demographic Split
  • (0:44:33-1:24:33) Republicans in New Hampshire and beyond
    • Delegate Rules
    • Delegate Hypothetical
    • Will we get good New Hampshire polls?
    • Contest Calendar
    • Trump reacts to losing
    • How will New Hampshire react to Iowa?
    • Divided anti-Trump vote
    • Trump Strategy
    • Bush done?
    • Big last minute moves?
    • Gilmore
    • post-New Hampshire
    • Predictions
  • (1:25:53-1:42:08) Democrats in New Hampshire and beyond
    • Sanders will win New Hampshire
    • post-New Hampshire
    • Delegate Allocation
    • How will Clinton react to losing?
    • No Clinton Backup
    • Clinton emails
    • Clinton collapse scenarios
  • (1:43:24-2:11:49) Lightning Round
    • Car Bluetooth Audio
    • Movie: Thomas and the Magic Railroad (2000)
    • Iran Deal Implementation
    • Flint Water Crisis
    • Oregon Militia Standoff Ended
    • Apple Earnings
    • Alphabet Market Cap
    • Feedback on Performance Reviews
    • Feedback on Sam’s Writing
    • Growing Show

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-02-03 (UTC)

  • 17:44:28 [Blog post] Republicans: Minor Delegate Shuffling and a New Hampshire Hypothetical https://t.co/Nvh6fcOyiL
  • 18:09:31 On the Dem side, since O’Malley’s 3 dels were all supers and not “earned” or bound dels, I zeroed his total. No blog post just for that.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-02-03 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-03 (UTC)