This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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August 2008
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Fay Still Visiting My Old House

Just finishing lunch, so no time for nice pictures, but…

Fay stalls, soaks Melbourne in “historic and hazardous rainfall event”
(Brendan Loy, Weather Nerd, Pajamas Media, 20 Aug 2008)

The Melbourne area, on Florida’s east coast, is getting absolutely pummeled right now by Tropical Storm Fay’s soaking rains, as the storm’s southern rain bands — which seem to be intensifying — “train” over the region, dumping 1-2 inches an hour in some spots.

Read the article for more details. Sounds like flooding and such is going to be pretty bad.

Electoral College: Ohio flips to McCain! Race Very Tight Once Again

Today’s polling has a big status change. My average of the last five polls in Ohio goes from Obama ahead by 1% to McCain ahead by 1%. Either way it is in the swing state category of “could easily go either way” but, for the moment, McCain has the edge and this flips Ohio into his category in the “everybody gets their lean states” totals.

New summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265

It takes 270 to win the electoral college. 269 to tie and send it to the House of Representatives. The total above is about as close as you can get without it actually being a tie. (If right now McCain managed to flip New Hampshire and there were no other changes, it WOULD be an electoral tie…)

Now, we shouldn’t read too much to Ohio being on one side or the other of the line. The reality is that is in the swing state category. It could go either way. And it has been in that state for a long time. The difference between where it was before this new polling and where it is now is slight.

However, I wouldn’t want to minimize this. This is yet more McCain momentum. He’s been on a roll for a month now. In mid-July Obama had McCain on the ropes. We were almost at the point where Obama could win without ANY swing states. McCain was in a position where he would have to essentially completely sweep all the swing states to win.

No longer. Obama still has a better best case scenario than McCain’s best case scenario. But the situation is MUCH more even. Yes, Obama needs far fewer of the swing states to come to his side. But McCain is ahead in almost enough of those states.

There are 141 electoral votes currently in swing states. Assuming Obama gets DC, in order to win Obama needs 27 of those electoral votes. Right now he is ahead in 3 swing states netting 30 electoral votes. By contrast McCain needs to bring 116 electoral votes from the swing states to win. Right now he is ahead in 10 of the swing states giving 111 electoral votes.

As mentioned before, from where we are now, if McCain flips New Hampshire, then we go to the House and Obama probably wins. (Although there may be interesting dynamics there that would not guarantee it.) But McCain just needs to flip Michigan or Colorado to take the lead outright.

Meanwhile, Obama needs to start fighting hard in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to flip them. If he can bring those back to his side, he could start looking comfortable again.

He also needs to start playing some defense to try to move Michigan, Colorado and New Hampshire out of swing state status and into the slightly safer weak category.

He can not keep letting Solid states move to Weak states and Weak states move to Lean states, and Lean states to McCain Lean states… which is what he has been doing for the last month.

That does sound a little passive though. This isn’t just happening to Obama in isolation, McCain is doing it to him. McCain was a little late getting spun up and started in this campaign, but for the last month he has been firing on all cylinders, while Obama has been sputtering.

And now we spin into Veeps and Conventions. And then full speed to November.

Get ready for a fun ride.

And an election that could still very easily go either way.

Fay Just Sitting

As of the overnight 06 UTC update, Tropical Storm Fay was still just sitting over our old house.

It got there yesterday and then basically just decided to stop.

There should be another update out any time now and I imagine it will eventually move on, but for the moment…

I’m sure it would be fun to be there right now, but I don’t mind all that much that I’m somewhere else now.

Election Results

Not that any of my readers are likely to actually care, but the results from the Washington State primaries can be found here as they come in. Presumably since ballots could have been stuck in the mail as late as Tuesday afternoon, these results are still preliminary. At least I assume so.

But I’m not seeing any write in results. Bastards. :-)

Edit 07:41 UTC: The page above didn’t have some of the King county only results. They are here.

Burn Party

The election night party for Darcy Burner (who for awhile after her house burned down was staying with the family of a friend of Amy’s from school) was within walking distance of our house. We walked by it on a trip to the grocery store after we dropped off our ballots at the polling place. We did not go in. Someone from Slog did though and remarked on the young people and took a picture.

Edit 07:34 UTC: More from Slog on the party in our neighborhood here.

Fay over Palm Bay

Hey look, Tropical Storm Fay did indeed hit Palm Bay and Melbourne. Right smack in the middle of the 90% to 100% blob of purple. (As of the update from almost four hours ago.)

Out of Time

Drat, I am out of time, and with six more items on the ballot.

Five of those are judges. And to be honest, I just don’t have enough info here to make good decisions, at least not hurrying like this. One day maybe I’ll know enough about local affairs to feel good about these, but not today. I really think judges should be appointed rather than elected anyway. So I don’t feel too horrible leaving these blank for now.

So:

King County Superior Court Position 10: Three candidates, no time to research, I’m leaving it blank.

King County Superior Court Position 22: Three candidates, no time to research, I’m leaving it blank.

King County Superior Court Position 26: Only two candidates, so I’ll write myself in.

King County Superior Court Position 37: Three candidates, no time to research, I’m leaving it blank.

King County Superior Court Position 53: Only two candidates, so I’ll write myself in.

The last item is for “Precinct Committee Officer”. It says “For this office only: If you consider yourself a Democrat or Republican, you may vote for a candidate of that party. For a write-in candidate, include party.” Although I was an Obama delegate in the primaries, at this point I do not consider myself either a Democrat or a Republican, so I will leave this blank too.

And that is that.

Now time to rush to the polling place and get this in.

I have 20 minutes.

King County Superior Court Position 1

More candidates than positions again.

Three candidates:

OK, I’ll go with the one that is already a judge.

My vote:

Susan Amini

Washinton State Court of Appeals Div 1 Dist 1 Pos 6

Only one candidate (Ann Schindler).

My vote:

Samuel Minter

Washinton State Court of Appeals Div 1 Dist 1 Pos 5

Only one candidate (Linda Lau).

My vote:

Samuel Minter