This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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November 2008
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My Old Counties

Places I have lived:

King County, WA (2006-Present): Obama
Brevard County, FL (2004-2006): McCain
Bucks County, PA (2003-2004): Obama
Middlesex County, NJ (1997-2003): Obama
Alexandria, VA (1995-1997): Obama
Allegheny County, PA (1989-1995): Obama
Frederick County, MD (1984-1989): McCain
Durham County, NC (1973,1976-1982,1983-1984): Obama
Washington, DC (1983): Obama
Marion County, IN (1982): Obama
Dane County, WI (1971-1973): Obama

Two of these things are not like the others.

Why Won’t CNN Call Them?

Missouri is at 100% reporting (McCain winning)

North Carolina is at 100% reporting (Obama winning)

Indiana is at 99% reporting (Obama winning)

Call them already damn it. I want to go to sleep. :-)

Electoral College: Called – Montana for McCain

This update covers the 15 minutes prior to 08:15 UTC.

Montana gets called for McCain. The range of possible results narrows a bit more.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

If one sticks to one common definition of landslide, namely 375 electoral votes or more, Obama now needs to sweep the remaining three states for this to be a “landslide”. Of course, there is no single accepted definition of landslide, and some people will be calling this such regardless.

Still waiting on North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. Still no deviations from the predictions this site had with the “everybody gets their leans” line immediately before the polls closed.

Of course, various places are now calling Indiana for Obama. If CNN eventually decides to agree, that will be the first deviation from predictions, as the five poll average here had McCain again by 3.4% heading into the election.

Edit 09:24 UTC – Added the slug about the time the update covered, which I had forgotten when I originally posted.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa was the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page and on this post but not on the two older posts that were effected. (Although I have added notes on those posts about the error.) Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Indiana heading toward Blue…

Various places online are calling Indiana for Obama. Since I’m going by CNN, I’m still waiting for them to do so before I update my charts…

Dancing in the Streets

I’m not going to post links to all of them, but as I keep watching my various Google News feeds, I’m seeing pictures of massive spontaneous street parties in cities across the country. Just masses of people taking to the streets and celebrating. All in blue areas of the country no doubt. And I’m sure things look and feel much different in the deep red areas, or even in the swing states. But it is still remarkable.

Apparently here in Seattle is no exception, and downtown has been going nuts.

On our street in the suburbs, despite Obama signs in many windows, it is quite quiet.

Of course, it is almost midnight in the suburbs and all.

Electoral College: Called – Nebraska (Omaha District) for McCain

This is an update covering the 15 minutes before 07:30 UTC.

CNN has now called the 1 electoral vote for the Omaha district of Nebraska. It joins the rest of the state and goes for McCain.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprises. Four states still outstanding. North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Montana have yet to be called.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

The Speech

Anyone who is not at least a little moved is not alive. I was a lot moved.

Full text:

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.

It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled – Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he’s fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.

I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation’s next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House. And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics – you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to – it belongs to you.

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington – it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.

It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.

I know you didn’t do this just to win an election and I know you didn’t do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime – two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor’s bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you – we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years – block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek – it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers – in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.

Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House – a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, “We are not enemies, but friends…though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection.” And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn – I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world – our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down – we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security – we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright – tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.

For that is the true genius of America – that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing – Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons – because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America – the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that “We Shall Overcome.” Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves – if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time – to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth – that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.

Electoral College: Called – Alaska

This is the 06:45 UTC update, reflecting states that were called in the 15 minutes before that time.

Just one. Alaska, as expected, was called for Sarah Palin… uh… John McCain.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprise states. North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, and the Omaha district of Nebraska yet to be called.

(I made a correction to the 04:45 update at 06:03 UTC to reflect the fact that 1 of Nebraska’s electoral votes had not yet been called. The graphs have been corrected accordingly.)

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Nebraska…

Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of Nebraska’s 5 electoral votes. I guess I’ll adjust the graph… Obama might actually pick up that 1 electoral vote from Omaha. Maybe.

Catch Up

OK, now that I have time to breath while waiting for these last five states to be called, I can look at the 936 items that have built up in my Google reader while I was tracking the results, or the 137 emails I’ve gotten in that same time period. (Yeah, most of those are automated mails I get whenever I make blog posts, of which I’ve done a few tonight. :-)

But still, lots to catch up on.

I hope those last five states get called quickly though. In the last 30 minutes, I’ve actually started to think that maybe I’ll be able to sleep tonight after all. :-)