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April 2012

@abulsme Updates from 2012-04-06 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Wisconsin Update

Charts from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

So, Green Papers updated their Wisconsin numbers.  They had been 33 Romney, 9 Santorum.  They are now 30 Romney, 9 Santorum, 3 still available.  Green Papers’ latest update commentary  indicates that they had previously thought these superdelegates were bound by the primary results, but it turns out they are not.  DCW still says however that those superdelegates are  bound by the election results and don’t have independent free choice here, in which case they probably really should be in the Romney column.  In fact DCW only made that change on the 4th.  So I’m not really sure who is right here.

For purposes of our counts, we go with Green Papers though, so Romney loses the three delegates from his count.  If information is found that these superdelegates are bound after all, Green Papers will update accordingly.

The changes to the “% of remaining delegates needed to win” number:

  • Romney:  42.5% -> 42.7%
  • Santorum:  77.5% -> 77.3%
  • Gingrich:  87.5% -> 87.2%
  • Paul:  94.6% -> 94.4%

So bad for Romney (since he loses 3 delegates for now) and good for everybody else since these delegates are theoretically now up for grabs again.

But really, this changes nothing.

Romney is the nominee.

Edit 2012 Apr 6 07:07 UTC to refer to both GP and DCW’s views on the 3 superdelegates being bound after I found GP’s comments on this.