This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-04-20 (UTC)

  • Reading – Small plane with unconscious pilot sinks in Gulf (Douglas Stanglin) http://t.co/KaiExB0d #
  • Reading – Romney's National Security Spokesman Is Openly Gay (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/j9zwB1Ly #
  • Reading – The Hobbit May Change How We Watch Movies (Zeon Santos) http://t.co/L3bgGilJ #
  • Reading – Melting Glaciers Liberate Ancient Microbes (Cheryl Katz and Daily Climate) http://t.co/BTGnvw0m #
  • Reading – The Jetstar 'Texting While Landing' Incident, and the Cessna Descent Into the Gulf (James Fallows) http://t.co/t0e9OqX8 #

Electoral College: Florida back to Swinging, Ohio goes Blue – Romney can win again!

Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate.  Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney. On the map Red is Romney, Blue is Obama, Gold States are too close to call.

Two changes today based on new polls added to my master spreadsheet.  And they both change the inventory of swing states, so important changes at that! Here are the details:

Florida (29 electoral votes):  Just two days ago the five poll average moved Obama’s lead in Florida to over 5% (5.2%) and thus moved the state out of swing state status and into the “Weak Obama” category.  Well, that didn’t last very long.  Today’s update puts Obama’s 5-poll lead at 4.0%, so the state goes back into the “Lean Obama” category and is once again classified as a swing state for our model.  Florida is big at 29 electoral votes, so makes a big difference in the electoral math.

Ohio (18 electoral votes):  Meanwhile, Obama’s lead in Ohio goes above 5% to 5.2% in the five poll average.  This removes Ohio from the swing state pool and moves it into the “Weak Obama” group.  This means Obama has a decent lead at the moment, but not so big that it wouldn’t be worth Romney’s time to try to attack that lead and pull Ohio back to being a close contest.  Ohio is one of those states that everyone expects to be close, so don’t be surprised if, like Florida, Ohio doesn’t stay in this status too long.

All and all since Florida is “worth more” than Ohio, today’s moves are good for Romney.  And in fact, this once again makes it so if Romney wins all the swing states, he wins the election…

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 271 267
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 170 368

While some states have moved in both directions, if we look at all the changes in April so far, Obama is still in a better position than he was at the beginning of the month.  We still haven’t had enough state polls to detect the recent move in Romney’s direction over the last week and a half.  If Romney hold his position in the national polls, expect more states to move in Romney’s direction over the next few weeks.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Update from Tennessee

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Another minor update as Green Papers gets final delegate numbers from Tennessee.  Back in March the results from the Primary were reported as Santorum 29, Romney 16, Gingrich 10.  The final results turned out to be Santorum 29, Romney 17, Gingrich 9.

So for the day:  Romney +1, Gingrich -1

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  40.5% -> 40.4%
  • Santorum:  78.0% (No Change)
  • Gingrich:  87.4% -> 87.5%
  • Paul:  94.7% (No Change)

Can we please have some primaries again?  This slow dripping of minor delegate changes is killing me. :-)