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@abulsme Updates from 2012-04-15 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Updates from Colorado and Wyoming

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Wyoming and Colorado both have caucus type delegate allocation systems, where local caucuses earlier in the year are actually just the start of multi-month multi-stage processes.  Both Colorado and Wyoming had their state conventions this weekend finishing off the delegate selection in those states.

Compared to the earlier estimates based on caucus results, the non-Romneys got crushed.  Romney gained delegates.  Everybody else lost delegates.

This is not surprising.  It is common for the “clear winner” to end up taking far more delegates in the end than it looked like they would given the “straw poll” results at the first stage.

Looking more specifically…

  • Colorado:  The estimates after the caucuses were Santorum 13, Romney 12, Gingrich 4, Paul 4, and 3 uncommitted.  This now becomes Romney 13, Santorum 6, and 17 uncommitted. All 36 delegates from Colorado are officially uncommitted, but using the current stated preferences of the delegates we have a net today from Colorado of Romney +1, Gingrich -4, Paul -4, Santorum -7.
  • Wyoming:  The estimates after the caucuses were Romney 11, Santorum 8, Paul 6, Gingrich 2, and 2 uncommitted.  This now becomes Romney 22, Santorum 2, Paul 1, and 4 uncommitted.  In Wyoming the delegates are bound.  The net for the day in Wyoming is Romney +11, Gingrich -2, Paul -5, Santorum -6

Totaling the day we have Romney +12, Gingrich -6, Paul -9, Santorum -13.  This does not look like a good day for the non-Romneys.  Especially for Santorum.  I guess dropping out of the race doesn’t help one’s ability to compete for delegates.

Notice though that we actually lost 16 delegates from the totals as some delegates that were predicted to go for specific candidates ended up uncommitted to any candidate.  This actually increases the pool of potentially available delegates.  In theory this improves the situation slightly for Gingrich and Paul, because, hey, they might still convince those uncommitted delegates to vote for them.  (And indeed, some reports say many of those uncommitted delegates aren’t ready to support anybody else yet, but are not for Romney at this point either.)  Santorum lost enough delegates that his situation actually gets worse anyway.

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  42.49% -> 40.85%
  • Santorum:  77.56% -> 77.61%
  • Gingrich:  87.54% -> 86.85%
  • Paul:  94.70% -> 94.16%

I should also mention, that having these additional 16 delegates not committed brings the total number of delegates allocated by the estimates we use (the Green Papers soft count) back under 50% of the total number of delegates.  Which actually means that the candidates with no delegates right now (Bachman, Huntsman, Perry, random others) are now no longer mathematically eliminated, and could catch up and win by capturing 99.65% of the remaining delegates.  If they were actually on the ballot on all of the remaining states.  Which they are not.  :-)

So, uh, anyway…  Romney still wins.