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@abulsme Updates from 2012-04-04 (UTC)

2008 vs 2012 after DC/MD/WI

We’d last talked about this after Louisiana.  But at that point in terms of % of delegates allocated the 2012 progress in the race still hadn’t gotten to where we were in 2008 immediately after Super Tuesday.  We were in the 2008 “gap” caused by the large number of delegates allocated on Super Tuesday in 2008.  At this point in the race, on April 4th, we are STILL not quite past where we were once all the 2008 Super Tuesday delegates were counted.  But we are close…

And once again, we see that, yes, Romney is behind where McCain was at the corresponding place in the delegate hunt.  But it is very close.  It is not a big substantial difference.  Right now we have 50.4% of the delegates allocated and Romney has 29.0% of them.  On the day in 2008 we finally had all the results from Super Tuesday (February 9th) we had 52.1% and McCain had 30.0% of the delegates.

So Romney is 1.0% or so behind McCain’s pace from 4 years ago once you are looking at an even scale based on % of delegates determined so far.  These lines fairly neatly track each other.  There is NOT a substantial gap where Romney was underperforming McCain.

The perception certainly has been that there was.  Romney having problems wrapping it up and such.  But this is 100% due to the stretched out calendar.  It is not due to winner take all vs proportional.  It is just about the calendar.  The fact that here on April 4th, we STILL haven’t allocated as many delegates as were allocated on February 9th back in 2008 is extraordinary.    This is why it SEEMS like it has taken a lot longer to wrap things up…  because it has!  But in terms of the calendar only.  The Republicans stretched out the whole race by spreading the contests out, so of course it takes more calendar time for the winner to consolidate their win.  Duh.

But this doesn’t support the conclusion that Romney was somehow less able to consolidate Republican support than McCain was.  They really have moved through the process at a remarkably similar rate.

It just doesn’t seem like it because the process is so stretched out this time.

 

2012 Republican Delegate Count: It Is Over (DC, MD, WI and ND Update)

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

So…  this is it.  Long ago any realistic possibility for any non-Romney to win the nomination disappeared.  With today’s update the already long odds for the non-Romneys to keep Romney from getting to 1144 essentially drop to zero.  This is over.  Romney wins.  Without any sort of brokered convention.  For something else to happen now we’d need some event that was so earth shaking that Romney dropped out.  This is extremely unlikely.

Details below.

We have updates from four contests.  In alphabetical order:

  • DC:  DC is winner take all, Romney gets all 16 delegates.
  • Maryland: Maryland is not actually winner take all, you get some delegates for winning the state, and then more delegates go to the winner of each congressional district.  But Romney not only won the state, but every congressional district. So Romney gets all 37 delegates.
  • North Dakota:  North Dakota had the first round of its process in March.  At that time the delegate estimate was Santorum 11, Paul 8 , Romney 7 , Gingrich 2.  But the state Republican Convention happened last weekend, and Romney supporters owned the parliamentary process, taking the lion’s share of the delegates despite coming in third in March.  That’s how it works in caucus states sometimes.  It took a couple days for Green Papers to confirm a new estimate, but it now looks like Romney 20, Santorum 6, Paul 2.  So the net today is Romney +13, Gingrich -2, Santorum -5, Paul -6.
  • Wisconsin:  Wisconsin also allocates some delegates based on both state and CD winners.  Romney won the state.  Romney won 5 CDs.  Santorum won 3 CDs.  So overall we have a delegate count of Romney 33, Santorum 9

Add those up and we have a net total for today of Romney +99, Santorum +4, Gingrich -2, Paul -6  Obviously Romney completely dominated the day.

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win” we have this:

  • Romney: 47.3% -> 42.5%
  • Santorum: 71.8% -> 77.5%
  • Gingrich: 80.5% -> 87.5%
  • Paul: 86.8% -> 94.6%

The also-rans who left the race early on…  Bachman, Huntsman and Perry…  are mathematically eliminated after today.  Paul, Gingrich and Santorum will inevitably join them soon.

The blocking Romney option?  At this point the non-Romneys collectively would need to get 57.5% of the remaining delegates.  So far they have managed 42.6% of the delegates.  A change of this sort, while not mathematically impossible, would be unprecedented, especially since we are in the phase of the campaign where it is clear Romney is winning and the others are losing.  People just stop voting for losers.  As things go on, the % of delegates the non-Romneys get will probably actually decline.  A major increase is just not going to happen.

It is over.

(We will of course continue to update these charts until Romney actually gets to 1144 however.)

Stupid Self-Correction on MD and WI

Sometime a few weeks ago I looked at the upcoming states and misread something and got it stuck in my head that DC, MD and WI were all winner take all states.  I then repeated that a number of times on this blog and in my podcast.

BUZZZ!!

DC is indeed winner take all, but MD and WI are only “Winner take all by State and Congressional District”.  So some delegates are chosen winner take all by the state results, and then additional delegates are allocated for the winners of each congressional district.  So not really WTA.

Oops.  Sorry about that.  In any case, when I post delegate updates they will of course reflect the actual delegate distributions, not my imaginary winner take all results.  This does mean that today will probably not be quite as much of a knockout punch for Romney as I expected, but it is looking to still be a pretty decisive victory, certainly more than he needs to be on pace for 1144.