This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-04-25 (UTC)

  • RT @Oatmeal: This is the web right now http://t.co/ajCPFXUk #
  • Reading – Amazon releases “Send to Kindle” desktop software for the Mac (Jacqui Cheng) http://t.co/hFSqMIfV #
  • Reading – A Few Notes on the RNC Meeting and the 2016 Rules (Josh Putnam) http://t.co/AbrFQZv0 #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @indecision: Tonight might be the last night Newt Gingrich is relevant. Just kidding. He’s never been relevant. #
  • RT @SonofConway: I think they should bring back the Whig Party #
  • RT @FHQ: Ha! NE is correct. Last contest in July. RT @DavidMDrucker: @LarrySabato It ain’t over till Indiana, or Nebraska… #
  • RT @jimantle: Delaware is so far the only state where Gingrich is beating Ron Paul. #
  • MT @FHQ: Romney set to pick up all 17 delegates in #deprimary & all 25 in #ctprimary Paul will qualify for delegates in #riprimary #
  • MT @FHQ: Romney on pace to trigger WTA in #nyprimary That 34 delegates & is ahead in 23 districts (46 more delegates). 6 dist yet 2 report. #
  • MT @FHQ: Paul going to qualify for delegates in #riprimary Looks like 12 delegates for Romney & 4 for Paul. Romney also has 3 automatics. #
  • Reading – King County GOP leader boots caucus outside after Ron Paul backers take over (Jim Brunner) http://t.co/1OSEFtsi #
  • Reading – A teacher, a student and a 39-year-long lesson in forgiveness (Tom Hallman Jr.) http://t.co/Pb8kwkNw #
  • RT @FHQ: Rough, ROUGH #paprimary delegate count: Uncommitted/unconfirmed 16 or 17, Romney 7, Paul 5, Gingrich 4 and Santorum 3 or 4. [1/2] #
  • RT @FHQ: Remaining 23 #paprimary delegates are elected officials, county-endorsed people & previous delegates/alternates. [2/2] #
  • RT @FHQ: RT @charliepolitico: Protest vote alert: Mitt Romney carried every single county in all 5 states #
  • MT @TheGreenPapers: CT, DE, NY, PA, RI Pres Primary Recap. PA statewide Primary Recap. http://t.co/aSxMWO9Q #
  • Reading – Anti-Piracy Group Asks Court to Gag The Pirate Party (Ernesto, TorrentFreak) http://t.co/qV8BcvS7 #
  • RT @blakehounshell: RT @AP Gingrich to suspend presidential bid Tuesday, exit GOP race to pave way for Romney. #

Obama Clinches Nomination

You may have heard some reports that this already happened back at the beginning of April (CNN reported it for instance), but I can’t figure out any math to back that up other than someone mistakenly thinking that since more than 50% of the Republican delegates had been allocated, the same must have been true for the Democrats.  Not true.  Different calendars.

Anyway, while the fun has been on the Republican Side I have been diligently tracking the Green Papers numbers for the Democrats too. Their soft count does not include Democratic Superdelegates, but I think it is a pretty safe bet that 100% of the Democratic Superdelegates will vote for Obama at the convention, so I have been including those in my own counts for the Democrats.  Given that assumption, plus Green Papers’ tally of the results from primaries and estimated results from caucuses, as of yesterday’s contests we have this delegate count:

Sorry Randall and Jim.  I don’t think this year is going to be your year.

Anyway, 2776 delegates are needed to win the nomination on the Democratic side, and as of today, Obama exceeds that number.

This is of course no surprise to anybody.  If anything, it is surprising 10 delegates went to someone else.

The chart’s of Obama’s walk to victory follow, but they aren’t as interesting as the equivalents on the Republican side this year.

And two bonus charts I include for the Republicans on the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page but not on my blog updates…

Of course, nothing is actually official until the convention.  But I think we have a Democratic nominee.  :-)

Note added 16:28 UTC:  To be absolutely strict, if you look at Green Paper’s “Hard Count” which only includes delegates officially bound to Obama, and not estimates from caucuses, and not officially uncommitted delegates who unofficially are identified Obama delegates, and not any of the super delegates, Obama only has 1940 delegates, so still has some ways to go.  But I think including the superdelegates, estimates from caucuses, and officially uncommitted delegates known to support Obama is completely reasonable.  So I’m willing to call this clinched.  :-)

2008 vs 2012 after NY/PA/CT/RI/DE

Not much to say here.  The small gap between Romney’s rate of accumulating delegates compared to McCain’s in 2008 has completely closed.  It is absolutely clear that any differences in perception on how fast Romney was “closing the deal” vs McCain were 100% due to the elongated calendar.  When you look at things by % of delegates accumulated vs % of delegates allocated, the two years track each other very closely.  In the early days of the campaign (before about 20% of the delegates) Romney was actually a bit ahead of McCain’s pace.  From there though 50% or so, Romney was slightly behind McCain’s pace.  The key word being slightly.  And now they once again very closely match.

So that whole narrative about Romney not matching McCain’s performance in 2008…  just completely not true in terms of the delegate races.  It just seemed that way because everything happened in a comparatively compressed timeframe in 2008.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Unsuper Tuesday – Paul and Gingrich Eliminated

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

First big primary day in awhile, and of course Romney dominates.

  • New York:  Romney gets all 92 delegates from today.  Total in NY now Romney 94, Gingrich 1
  • Pennsylvania:  This is the only tricky one of the day.  Delegates were elected by name, not by presidential preference.  So they are all officially uncommitted, but in general these delegates do support someone, it just takes more work to figure out who.  Green Papers’ initial estimate from the primary is Romney +11, Paul +5, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3, and 39 uncommitted or unknown.  That is obviously a lot of uncommitted/unknown, so there will probably be future updates as the preferences of those delegates become known.  Also 10 at-large delegates won’t be chosen until June and two superdelegates have yet to publicly express a preference.  The total in PA is now Romney 12, Paul 5, Gingrich 4, Santorum 3, TBD 48.  (GP has Romney 11, TBD 49, but I think they forgot the one Romney superdelegate.)
  • Connecticut:  Romney wins all 25 delegates from the primary.  New CT total:  Romney 26, TBD 2
  • Rhode Island:  Romney gets 12 delegates from the primary, Paul gets 4.  New RI Total:  Romney 15, Paul 4
  • Delaware:  Romney gets all 17 delegates from the primary.  No delegates had been allocated previously and none are left, so total is just Romney 17

So, for the day…  Romney +157, Paul +9, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3.  Romney gets 90.8% of the delegates today.  Way more than the 40.2% he needed to stay on track to get to 1144.

And with this, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are both mathematically eliminated.  More specifically, if they were now to get 100% of the remaining delegates they would still not get to 1144.  In order to get to 1144, they would actually need to take delegates away from the other candidates, either through final results in caucus states being better for them than earlier estimates, or through actual defections.  Both are possible.  However, neither will happen in large enough numbers to change anything, absent something catastrophic that causes Romney to actually drop out.  Uh, which is highly unlikely.

For the remaining two candidates, in terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  40.2% -> 30.9%
  • Santorum:  80.1% -> 94.5%

So, theoretically Santorum could still catch up and win by getting 95% of the remaining delegates.  Needless to say that won’t happen.  His already long odds were made worse by suspending his campaign.

Meanwhile, neither Gingrich or Paul have suspended their campaigns.  There are indications Gingrich might do so soon despite previous vows to stay in until Tampa.  Paul has shown no signs of stopping.

The 31% of the remaining delegates Romney needs to wrap this up should be very easy for him to get.  But we still have to wait for the calendar.  So the march goes on…

Update 2012 Apr 27 12:34 UTC:

I was incorrect about the Pennsylvania count above and had misread Green Paper’s statement.  In fact the new total in Pennsylvania was indeed Romney 11, not Romney 12.  There were 10 new Romey delegates added to the count, not 11.  They did not forget the one superdelegate.  I just got twisted around thinking the 11 was a delta from the election instead of a new total, which would have left one delegate out.  But it was indeed the new new total.

This makes the total for this day Romney +156, Paul +9, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3.

That gives Romney 90.7% of the delegates for the day instead of 90.8%.

This also changes Romney’s “% needed to win” to 31.0% instead of 30.9%.  Santorum’s becomes 94.4% instead of 94.5%.

These changes are too small to be visible on the graph above, but will be reflected on future updates.