This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



April 2012

2012 Republican Delegate Count: PA/CO/VI Updates

Charts from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

First of all, I just updated Wednesday’s post to add a correction. I had made the mistake of doubting Green Papers. I thought they had missed a delegate in their count. In fact, I had misinterpreted their statement about the change. I read their new total as a delta from the election, leading me to add an extra non-existant delegate to Romney’s total in Pennsylvania. My bad. Not theirs. Worse, my first draft of Wednesday’s post actually had it right, but I switched it to the wrong answer right before posting. Bleh. Today’s updates build off the corrected numbers for Wednesday rather than the original incorrect numbers I posted. (OK, it was only off by one delegate, which is tiny in the big scheme, but still, I’m annoyed at myself. :-) ) Anyway…

Three states with updates today, all via Green Papers as usual:

  • Pennsylvania: Continued updates as more sources get indication on the preferences of the delegates elected in Pennsylvania. The previous Pennsylvania totals, after my correction mentioned above, had been… Romney 11, Paul 5, Gingrich 4, Santorum 3, 49 TBD. They are now Romney 27, Paul 5, Gingrich 3, Santorum 3, 34 TBD. Net for the day… Romney +16, Gingrich -1.
  • Colorado: 2 delegates previously listed as uncommitted move to the Paul column. Net for the day, Paul +2. New total for the state Romney 14, Santorum 6, Paul 2, 14 TBD.
  • Virgin Islands: 1 previously uncommitted delegate moves to the Romney column. So Romney +1

So total for the day: Romney +17, Paul +2, Gingrich -1

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney: 31.0% -> 29.7%
  • Santorum: 94.4% -> 96.2%

More updates from Pennsylvania and other locations as they come in. Next batch of actual contests are North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia on May 8th. I’m guessing Romney will get the 29.7% of delegates he needs there. Yawn.

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