With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.
After Oregon and Kentucky, Clinton only needed 11.37% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needed 88.84% of the remaining delegates.
In the Virgin Islands, Clinton got 6 delegates, Sanders got 1.
In other changes since Oregon and Kentucky due to superdelegate updates and adjustments in Maryland, Oregon and Michigan there was a net change of Clinton +17, Sanders +8.
So total change since Oregon and Kentucky: Clinton +23, Sanders +9.
That is Clinton 71.88%, Sanders 28.13%.
So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not.
New delegate totals: Clinton 2298, Sanders 1548, O’Malley 1.
There are 918 delegates left. Clinton needs 85 of them. Sanders needs 835 of them.
Clinton now needs 9.26% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 90.96%.
This of course includes superdelegates. The Sanders camp continues to insist that you shouldn’t count superdelegates until the convention because until then they can change their minds. It is true they can change their minds, but we have been logging whenever that happens, and it has been rare. The best we can tell about how superdelegates will vote is to take their public preferences at face value. If they change their minds and they say so, we will know and the counts will change. In the mean time, to ignore their preferences in the count would be to intentionally ignore data about the current situation.
Right now Clinton only needs 85 more delegates to clinch the nomination. There are still 145 superdelegates who have not stated a preference. They could put Clinton over the top at any time. The Clinton folks undoubtedly do not want superdelegates to put them over the top though, so they may actually be asking the remaining superdelegates NOT to make any endorsements in the next few days.
Some media agencies actually have Clinton’s delegate count a bit higher than our count, which matches The Green Papers exactly at this point. This is because those media organizations have been able to privately confirm the preferences of some superdelegates who have not made public commitments. Both this site and the Green papers use the Wikipedia superdelegate tally as our source, and this only includes publicly confirmed preferences.
In any case, we are very close. Between the Puerto Rican primary and superdelegates, it is possible Clinton will hit the magic number before the big contests on June 7th. Most likely though, she’ll get there as soon as the polls close in New Jersey on the 7th. The rest of the June 7th states will just be icing on the cake.
Update 21:45 – Superdelegate scan +6.
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.
Edit 2016-06-06 16:55 UTC to add yesterday’s superdelegate scan, which I had neglected to add at the time.