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Democrats: Clinton wins the Virgin Islands, getting close now

With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.

After Oregon and Kentucky, Clinton only needed 11.37% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needed 88.84% of the remaining delegates.

In the Virgin Islands, Clinton got 6 delegates, Sanders got 1.

In other changes since Oregon and Kentucky due to superdelegate updates and adjustments in Maryland, Oregon and Michigan there was a net change of Clinton +17, Sanders +8.

So total change since Oregon and Kentucky: Clinton +23, Sanders +9.

That is Clinton 71.88%, Sanders 28.13%.

So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not.

Updated graphs:

chart-158

New delegate totals: Clinton 2298, Sanders 1548, O’Malley 1.

There are 918 delegates left. Clinton needs 85 of them. Sanders needs 835 of them.

chart-159

Clinton now needs 9.26% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 90.96%.

This of course includes superdelegates. The Sanders camp continues to insist that you shouldn’t count superdelegates until the convention because until then they can change their minds. It is true they can change their minds, but we have been logging whenever that happens, and it has been rare. The best we can tell about how superdelegates will vote is to take their public preferences at face value. If they change their minds and they say so, we will know and the counts will change. In the mean time, to ignore their preferences in the count would be to intentionally ignore data about the current situation.

Right now Clinton only needs 85 more delegates to clinch the nomination. There are still 145 superdelegates who have not stated a preference. They could put Clinton over the top at any time. The Clinton folks undoubtedly do not want superdelegates to put them over the top though, so they may actually be asking the remaining superdelegates NOT to make any endorsements in the next few days.

Some media agencies actually have Clinton’s delegate count a bit higher than our count, which matches The Green Papers exactly at this point. This is because those media organizations have been able to privately confirm the preferences of some superdelegates who have not made public commitments. Both this site and the Green papers use the Wikipedia superdelegate tally as our source, and this only includes publicly confirmed preferences.

In any case, we are very close. Between the Puerto Rican primary and superdelegates, it is possible Clinton will hit the magic number before the big contests on June 7th. Most likely though, she’ll get there as soon as the polls close in New Jersey on the 7th. The rest of the June 7th states will just be icing on the cake.

Update 21:45 – Superdelegate scan +6.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Edit 2016-06-06 16:55 UTC to add yesterday’s superdelegate scan, which I had neglected to add at the time.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Walk 5000 Steps

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan hit all the things you would expect about Election 2016, the attacks in Brussels and the announcements at the latest Apple event. They also talk a bit about fitness, #ManInTree, Waze, Obama in Cuba and more! Even a bit about events in the Nixon administration!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20151125bw
Recorded 2016-03-24

Length this week – 1:51:13

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:00-0:02:52) Alex Prelude
  • (0:03:05-0:14:21) But First
    • Health
    • Fitness
    • Man In Tree
  • (0:15:01-0:56:58) Election 2016
    • Delegate Math
    • Types of Contested Conventions
    • Upcoming States
    • California
    • Virgin Islands
    • Delegate Selection Processes
    • Trump’s Lost Illinois Delegates
    • Clinton vs Trump
  • (0:58:02-1:06:19) Brussels
    • Belgian Citizens
    • Radicalization
    • History of Terrorism
    • Responses
  • (1:07:36-1:19:56) Brussels Part II
    • Overreactions
    • Suicide Bombings
    • IS Strategy
    • Cruz and Trump on Brussels
    • When it happens in the US
  • (1:20:35-1:33:43) Apple Stuff
    • No surprises
    • Android codenames
    • OS X codenames
    • FBI vs Apple update
  • (1:34:22-1:50:53) Lightning Round
    • TV Series: Minority Report (2015)
    • Obama in Cuba
    • Obama in Argentina
    • Nixon Administration on Drug War
    • Rob Ford

2012 Republican Delegate Count: PA/CO/VI Updates

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

First of all, I just updated Wednesday’s post to add a correction.  I had made the mistake of doubting Green Papers.  I thought they had missed a delegate in their count.  In fact, I had misinterpreted their statement about the change. I read their new total as a delta from the election, leading me to add an extra non-existant delegate to Romney’s total in Pennsylvania.  My bad.  Not theirs.  Worse, my first draft of Wednesday’s post actually had it right, but I switched it to the wrong answer right before posting.  Bleh.  Today’s updates build off the corrected numbers for Wednesday rather than the original incorrect numbers I posted.  (OK, it was only off by one delegate, which is tiny in the big scheme, but still, I’m annoyed at myself. :-) )  Anyway…

Three states with updates today, all via Green Papers as usual:

  • Pennsylvania:  Continued updates as more sources get indication on the preferences of the delegates elected in Pennsylvania.  The previous Pennsylvania totals, after my correction mentioned above, had been…  Romney 11, Paul 5, Gingrich 4, Santorum 3, 49 TBD.  They are now Romney 27, Paul 5, Gingrich 3, Santorum 3, 34 TBD.  Net for the day…  Romney +16, Gingrich -1.
  • Colorado:  2 delegates previously listed as uncommitted move to the Paul column.  Net for the day, Paul +2.  New total for the state Romney 14, Santorum 6, Paul 2, 14 TBD.
  • Virgin Islands:  1 previously uncommitted delegate moves to the Romney column.  So Romney +1

So total for the day:  Romney +17, Paul +2, Gingrich -1

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  31.0% -> 29.7%
  • Santorum:  94.4% -> 96.2%

More updates from Pennsylvania and other locations as they come in.  Next batch of actual contests are North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia on May 8th.  I’m guessing Romney will get the 29.7% of delegates he needs there.  Yawn.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Stupid Dog!

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner…

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Daylight Savings Time / Election 2012
  • New iPad / Apple Competition / HD Downloads

Just click to listen now:

[wpaudio url=”http://www.abulsme.com/CurmudgeonsCorner/cc20120311.mp3″ text=”Recorded 11 Mar 2012″]

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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Kansas and the Virgin Islands

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  Rather than the date on the x-axis, we show the “% of Delegates Already Allocated” as this better represents the progress through the race.  Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

For the first time since Gingrich won South Carolina, someone other than Romney ends up improving their overall position after a day with results from major contests.  Yes, Santorum actually pulled one out!

In Kansas Santorum won 33 delegates to Romney’s 7.  In the Virgin Islands, Romney won 4 delegates, Paul won 1.  Romney also picked up one additional superdelegate from the Virgin Islands.  This makes the totals for the day:  Santorum 33, Romney 12, Paul 1.

In order to be on a pace to catch up and get to 1144, Santorum needed 66.4% of the delegates.  With 33/46 he manages 71.7% of today’s delegates. This means his “% of remaining needed to win” drops to 66.2% for the next set of contests on Tuesday.

So not only does Santorum win the day, he wins the day by a big enough margin to be on pace to win!  Well, we would be if he did this every single time there was a contest, which won’t happen, but hey, today, he did it today!  (Note: If you counted the two Pacific Island contests that I gave the results of yesterday as if they were all on the same day as Kansas and the Virgin Islands, Santorum would no longer be up for the day.)

Meanwhile, all of the other candidates of course moved backwards, including Romney.  Romney moves from needing 47.7% of the remaining delegates to needing 48.4% of the remaining delegates.  He will be hard pressed to make this margin in Tuesday’s deep South contests, so expect that he may move backwards some more before moving toward the nomination again, but he is still in the commanding position in this race.  Nobody else is even close.  He is the only one with a path to 1144.  (Prospects for the non-Romney’s to block remain possible however, although the non-Romney’s have to pick up the collective delegate getting pace to make that happen, rather than fading as their chances of winning individually rapidly go to zero.)