This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

Categories

Calendar

Democrats: With win in Puerto Rico, Clinton on the edge of clinching

After the Virgin Islands, Clinton only needed 9.26% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needed 90.96% of the remaining delegates.

In Puerto Rico, Clinton got 36 delegates, Sanders got 24.

Since the Virgin Islands, 6 more superdelegates were added to Clinton’s count as well.

So total change since the Virgin Islands: Clinton +42, Sanders +24.

That is Clinton 63.64%, Sanders 36.26%.

So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not.

Updated graphs:

chart (115)

New delegate totals: Clinton 2340, Sanders 1572, O’Malley 1.

There are 852 delegates left. Clinton needs 43 of them. Sanders needs 811 of them.

chart (116)

Clinton now needs 5.05% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 95.19%.

This of course includes superdelegates. Please see any number of previous posts here on Election Graphs as to why it is appropriate to include them, even though they can change their minds until they vote at the convention. If any superdelegates change their minds publicly before then, it will be tracked here.

Right now Clinton only needs 43 more delegates to clinch the nomination. There are still about 139 who have not stated a preference. There have been media reports that Clinton has 40+ superdelegates who have privately committed to her that they are waiting to roll out after the New Jersey results almost certainly push her over 2383 anyway. NBC, AP and some others also have a higher current delegate count than I do for Clinton by about 20 delegates due to information they have collected privately from superdelegates.

Put all of that together, and it is actually very possible, indeed probably very likely, that Clinton ALREADY has more than 2383 delegates that she is sure of. In terms of public confirmation, she is just a few handfuls of delegates away, the number of handfuls depending on whose delegate count you go by.

Superdelegates could give Clinton the nomination at any moment now. But since Clinton would prefer to win after the votes of regular citizens are counted, her campaign is almost certainly asking any currently uncommitted superdelegates leaning toward her to wait. So with as much certainty as you can ever get in these sorts of things, expect Clinton to be declared the presumptive nominee by everybody who does such things shortly after the polls start closing on June 7th.

For this site, the blog post about the June 7th results probably won’t go out until the next morning, but watch @ElectionGraphs on Twitter for hourly updates of the delegate totals, including of course noting when she wins the nomination by our own count.

Update 2016-06-07 00:52 UTC: I almost put “…at the latest.” on the end of the paragraph about the networks calling the result soon after polls start closing on the 7th. But alas, I didn’t. A few minutes ago AP reported that by their count Clinton is over 2383 and is therefore the presumptive nominee. They are including superdelegates who have not yet publicly expressed a preference, but have done so when asked privately. The count here will take a little bit to catch up, since it is dependent on public statements by superdelegates and/or actual election results. But the result will be the same…

Update 2016-06-07 22:31 UTC: My source trying to catch up with superdelegate info resulting from AP’s updated counts. Net Change: Clinton +15, Sanders +1, O’Malley -1. Yes, that one O’Malley superdelegate finally flipped… to Clinton.

Update 2016-06-07 23:55 UTC: Updated the number of superdelegates in a bunch of states as per Green Papers. Most changes were uncommitted slots anyway, but there was a net change of Clinton -1. There was no net change to the total number of delegates.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

Edit 17:40 to fix a typo where I said Clinton needed 42 delegates instead of 43 in one of the places it is mentioned.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-06-05 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-06-05 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-06-05 (UTC)