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Electoral College: Trump retakes the lead in Arizona

New polls since last update: Texas (x2), Arizona, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Well, that didn’t last long. Less than a week ago the polling average in Arizona moved to the blue side of the center line. With today’s update, Arizona is once again tinted the more familiar red color.

chart (122)

One of the two polls showing Clinton leading in Arizona falls off the average, and so it rises to a 1.7% Trump lead. Arizona is still looking close, which is itself remarkable given the electoral history there, but once again it is on the Trump side of the line.

chart (123)

The “expected case” where each candidate wins all the states where they lead in the poll average, no more, no less, now sits at Clinton 323, Trump 215. This is a 108 electoral vote win for Clinton. We are back where we were in mid-March.

With this scenario, Trump is still losing, but not by as much as either Romney (126 EV loss) or McCain (192 EV loss).

So to repeat a theme I have touched on a number of times before, yes, Trump is behind here. Clinton is winning. But we are NOT seeing a historically bad Republican candidate. Trump is actually doing better than his immediate predecessors at the moment.

And compared to both two months ago and one month ago, he is still up or flat on all four metrics tracked here at Election Graphs, not in the midst of and epic collapse. Or, at least, there isn’t one in evidence yet at the state level. If anything, it looks like he is still in the process of recovering from the collapse in support he did indeed see during the months the primaries were in full swing.

133.2 days until the polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-06-27 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-06-27 (UTC)

  • 06:52:42 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in FL from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 44% to Trump 41% https://t.co/wAwb3ZNORW
  • 07:01:43 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in FL from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 44% to Trump 41% to Johnson 3% to Stein 1%
  • 07:08:47 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in CO from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 40% to Trump 39% https://t.co/CbB6vTB3u3
  • 07:15:19 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in CO from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 40% to Trump 39% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
  • 07:21:47 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in WI from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 41% to Trump 36% https://t.co/rxvvjETdiy
  • 07:24:05 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in WI from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 41% to Trump 36% to Johnson 3% to Stein 1%
  • 07:27:04 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in NC from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/EeVrctC5UF
  • 07:27:09 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in NC from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-24 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% to Johnson 2% to Stein 1%
  • 07:41:30 Poll Added: PPH/MST in ME-All from 2016-06-15 to 2016-06-21 – Clinton 42% to Trump 35% https://t.co/jFDO56M3jV
  • 07:44:42 Poll Added: PPH/MST in ME-CD1 from 2016-06-15 to 2016-06-21 – Clinton 48% to Trump 33% https://t.co/fSlQ9baLLg
  • 07:47:52 Poll Added: PPH/MST in ME-CD2 from 2016-06-15 to 2016-06-21 – Clinton 36% to Trump 37% https://t.co/6nNzyz3eg4
  • 07:58:33 Poll Added: Hendrix w/3P in AR from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-21 – Clinton 36% to Trump 47% https://t.co/XSQuLYfVX5
  • 07:58:38 Full 3P results logged: Hendrix w/3P in AR from 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-21 – Clinton 36% to Trump 47% to Johnson 8%
  • 07:58:45 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AR has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/XSQuLYfVX5
  • 08:20:16 Poll Added: Saint Leo in FL from 2016-06-10 to 2016-06-16 – Clinton 50.1% to Trump 35.3% https://t.co/9EOjgRoJ6j
  • 08:23:17 Poll Added: Saint Leo w/3P in FL from 2016-06-10 to 2016-06-16 – Clinton 45.8% to Trump 33.1% https://t.co/dA0reaHccj
  • 08:23:22 Full 3P results logged: Saint Leo w/3P in FL from 2016-06-10 to 2016-06-16 – Clinton 45.8% to Trump 33.1% to Johnson 5.9%
  • 08:23:28 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/dA0reaYN3R
  • 08:28:04 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 3 in FL -> Clinton by 4 in OH https://t.co/2hHiW37kHV
  • 08:28:05 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 231 to Trump 307 -> Clinton 260 to Trump 278 https://t.co/2hHiW37kHV
  • 08:41:12 That’s it for today. Polls added in FL/CO/WI/NC/ME-All/ME-CD1/ME-CD2/AR. There was a notable change, so @ElectionGraphs blog post later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-06-27 (UTC)