This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-01 (UTC)

  • Reading – CDC Issues Warning About Nasal Washes (CBS 4 Denver) #
  • RT @FHQ: Crap. Is CNN already trying to report the Wyoming delegate allocation as proportional? Sigh. #
  • Reading – Conversation with my friend, Maile… (The Bloggess) #
  • Reading – How Dolphins Say Hello (Elizabeth Norton) #
  • MT @ppppolls: Romney with a small lead on 1st night of our Washington poll. Represents big change from 2 wks ago, reflecting national shift #
  • Reading – Demography as Destiny: The GOP's Self-Inflicted Wound (James Fallows) #
  • Reading – Warp Drives May Come With a Killer Downside (Jason Major) #
  • Reading – In Memoriam: Andrew Breitbart (1969-2012) (Larry Solov) #
  • Reading – Reports of the Republican Nominee's Doom Are Greatly Exaggerated (David A. Graham) #
  • Reading – Breitbart, RIP (Josh Marshall) #
  • Reading – Third-Party Forecast: A Chance of Snowe? (Matt Negrin) #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Wyoming and Michigan Update

Chart from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination. If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. Rather than the date on the x-axis, we show the “% of Delegates Already Allocated” as this better represents the progress through the race. Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

So, first of all, that final congressional district in Michigan went for Santorum, so 2 more delegates for Santorum, making the final Michigan numbers 15 for Romney and 15 for Santorum, which was an exact match for my Scenario 2 in the post gaming out Arizona and Michigan.

Secondly, we have Wyoming. It is very important with Wyoming (as with similar caucuses previously) to point out that no national delegates were actually allocated in Wyoming yet. There was a straw poll, which doesn’t matter, and local delegates were selected for the next stage in the caucus process that will eventually select delegates to the national conventions. Ideally, each local delegate who was selected would be polled for their presidential preferences, and that would be used to predict results at the next level, etc. But that would be a ton of work, and nobody is doing that. Our source for these things, The Green Papers is doing the estimating by using the straw poll numbers for all candidates who got more than 5%. These estimates WILL change (perhaps significantly!) when the later caucus stages happen, but for now that is what we have. Green Papers estimates Wyoming as: Romney 10, Santorum 8, Paul 6, Gingrich 2.

And so when we pump this into the grinder and look at the “% of remaining needed to win” charts that I argue are the best way to see what is really happening… we find out… EVERYBODY LOSES. All four candidates in the race got delegates since my last update yesterday, but none of them got the delegates at the rate they would need to in order to get to 1144. Romney of course came closest. He got 10 out of 28 delegates today, or 35.7% of the delegates. But he needed to get 49.3% of the delegates (at least 14 of today’s 28) to actually be on pace to get to 1144.

Romney is still way ahead though. Right now he needs 49.5% of the remaining delegates to win. Santorum is in second needing 55.2% of the remaining delegates to win.

We are still fundamentally in a state where if Romney continues the way he has been, he will get to 1144, but very very late in the process… but with the possibility of the non-Romney’s blocking him still real. The non-Romney’s only have to do a little better than they have been to block Romney. One of the non-Romney’s actually catching up and winning gets to be an increasingly remote possibility as we move on though. Still not impossible. Just getting very hard. You would basically need consolidation around one non-Romney at the same time that Romney himself lost a significant amount of support.