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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Kansas and the Virgin Islands

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  Rather than the date on the x-axis, we show the “% of Delegates Already Allocated” as this better represents the progress through the race.  Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

For the first time since Gingrich won South Carolina, someone other than Romney ends up improving their overall position after a day with results from major contests.  Yes, Santorum actually pulled one out!

In Kansas Santorum won 33 delegates to Romney’s 7.  In the Virgin Islands, Romney won 4 delegates, Paul won 1.  Romney also picked up one additional superdelegate from the Virgin Islands.  This makes the totals for the day:  Santorum 33, Romney 12, Paul 1.

In order to be on a pace to catch up and get to 1144, Santorum needed 66.4% of the delegates.  With 33/46 he manages 71.7% of today’s delegates. This means his “% of remaining needed to win” drops to 66.2% for the next set of contests on Tuesday.

So not only does Santorum win the day, he wins the day by a big enough margin to be on pace to win!  Well, we would be if he did this every single time there was a contest, which won’t happen, but hey, today, he did it today!  (Note: If you counted the two Pacific Island contests that I gave the results of yesterday as if they were all on the same day as Kansas and the Virgin Islands, Santorum would no longer be up for the day.)

Meanwhile, all of the other candidates of course moved backwards, including Romney.  Romney moves from needing 47.7% of the remaining delegates to needing 48.4% of the remaining delegates.  He will be hard pressed to make this margin in Tuesday’s deep South contests, so expect that he may move backwards some more before moving toward the nomination again, but he is still in the commanding position in this race.  Nobody else is even close.  He is the only one with a path to 1144.  (Prospects for the non-Romney’s to block remain possible however, although the non-Romney’s have to pick up the collective delegate getting pace to make that happen, rather than fading as their chances of winning individually rapidly go to zero.)

@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-10 (UTC)

  • Someone from high school and her dog. I gave a little. Reading – Bailey the Beagle needs your help! (Heather Neider) is.gd/2ruye2
  • Reading – The iPad Is Unbeatable (Farhad Manjoo)mobile.slate.com/articles/techn…
  • Reading – The Revenge of Santorum Can’t Get to 1144 (Josh Putnam) frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/reveng…
  • Reading – The Frontrunner and His Rivals (Ross Douthat)is.gd/A82Gqa
  • Reading – Senate Gridlock Explained in One Chart (Dino Grandoni)is.gd/0w2DA5
  • Reading – What the New iPad means for Apple rivals: “No Air.” (Jeff Yang) originalspin.posterous.com/what-the-new-i…
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @shushwalshe: Romney has won the Guam caucuses, ABC News reports.
  • MT @freesyria74: Can the ICC explain what did Qaddafi have that Assad doesn’t? Assad should be charged with crimes against humanity
  • RT @FHQ: RT @feliciasonmez: Mitt Romney wins all 9 Guam delegates, his campaign just announced #guamination
  • RT @FHQ: So just for the record, with the delegate sweep in Guam, it is worth more to Romney than Oklahoma was to Santorum.
  • RT @RichardA: Winning Guam will finally silence critics who say Romney can’t connect with Western Pacific Ocean voters
  • Reading – Guam Goes for Romney (Josh Putnam)frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/guam-g…
  • MT @FHQ: Out of a pool of 16 candidates, 6 delegates were chosen in N. Marianas. ow.ly/1I6Fr3 All for Romney +3 automatic delegates.
  • Reading – On the genre of “Raising Awareness about Someone Else’s Suffering.” (zunguzungu) is.gd/OsRiWJ
  • Reading – How to Write about Africa (Binyavanga Wainaina)is.gd/senY1G
  • Reading – Daylight saving time — still mostly a scam (Brad Plumer)is.gd/NaNCtq
  • RT @tmbg: people adapting Dr. Suess need to stop trying to “fix it”
  • RT @shadihamid: Hadn’t seen this — Panetta says NATO should start debating military intervention in #Syriabit.ly/A3C6o4
  • RT @FHQ: In NV today: MT @ralstonflash: Paul campaign estimates 50-60% of delegates here are theirs. May be as many as 2,500 attendees.