This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-22 (UTC)

  • Reading – Mitt Romney Platform 'Like An Etch A Sketch,' Top Spokesman Says (Sam Stein) http://t.co/TOlXPU5I #
  • Reading – The Horserace Ends (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/ZJh2I3AG #
  • Reading – Poll Analysis: Obama leads Romney (Darryl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/2sDzrfEb #
  • MT @ppppolls: Nebraska won our vote on where to poll this weekend. Taking question suggestions for there and for NC: http://t.co/F0mNu2V1 #
  • @ppppolls CD breakdown planned for weekend NE poll? Relevant since NE can split EV like it did in 2008. #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Update from Alaska

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, on the second chart rather than the date on the x-axis, we show the “% of Delegates Already Allocated” as this better represents the progress through the race.  Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Right after the caucuses there, delegates from Alaska were estimated as Romney 8, Santorum 7, Paul 6, Gingrich 3.  The district Convention vote is now final, and the estimate changes to Romney 8, Santorum 8, Paul 6, Gingrich 2.  So net for the day:  Santorum +1, Gingrich -1.  (The three superdelegates from Alaska are still up for grabs.)

This of course doesn’t substantially change anything.

(For the die hards: Santorum’s % of remaining needed to win declines from 71.84% to 71.76%, while Gingrich’s rises from 79.49% to 79.57%.)