This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-03 (UTC)

  • Reading – Obama Backs GOP Into Limbaugh-Shaped Corner (Evan McMorris-Santoro) http://t.co/cfTFiysQ #
  • MT @kmcquadeEPS: @mattyglesias @AndrewBrietbart As a left-of-center guy, u need 2 know yr comment is shameful. Your lack of civility is sad. #
  • Reading – What Intersections Would Look Like in a World of Driverless Cars (Emily Badger) http://t.co/pOKE32NR #
  • RT @Kimsfirst: March 1980 Illinois poll: Carter 60 Reagan 34. Election day: Reagan 50 Carter 42. Relevant today: see http://t.co/mzYfgk7s #
  • Reading – 40 Delegates Up For Grabs In Today's Washington Caucuses (Oreo, DCW) http://t.co/N3STF44K #
  • In the parking lot waiting for things to open up. McDonalds breakfast. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • OK, going in. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • I am now the "temporary chair" of my precinct because I am the first to show up from Ruggs Lake precinct. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Registered my straw poll preference for Ron Paul on the sign up sheet. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • The table designated for Ruggs Lake has room for about six people. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44ru #
  • There is a table with Ron Paul people giving out swag. No other candidate with visible presence. Got some swag. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • 30 minutes after doors open. 30 minutes until event starts. I am still the only one at the Ruggs Lake table. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Most people appear to be staying for the actual caucus rather than leaving after they vote in the straw poll. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Slight drama as someone fell off their chair and hit his head on a bench. A bunch of us ran over. He is fine. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Cell coverage sucks in here. Have to stand up and walk around to get tweet out reliably. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @DaPlaneBoss @RonPaul glad you are enjoying them! :-) #
  • @DaPlaneBoss Yes. Gray hair. #
  • 15 minutes out. Getting more crowded and noisy. Still the only one from Ruggs Lake. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • I ran to get something from car, took packet with me to make sure not lost. Concerned people. But I came back. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Still only one at Ruggs Lake table. Maybe I should have brought a pen. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Of course what I wanted from my car isn't in my bag after all. I may have to go back out. But I will wait. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Room getting quite full. 1 m until it is supposed to start. Still only one at table. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • There are still people in line to get signed in, so they are waiting a few minutes to start. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Reading packet to know what I have to do if I am the only person from my precinct. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Filling out surveys on how I feel about various issues, etc. Still only person for Ruggs Lake. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Pledge of allegiance. We have started. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Looks like I *am* Ruggs Lake. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • They are reviewing how the precinct caucuses will work. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Three people now for Ruggs Lake! I am not alone! #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • There was a 4th sign up for Ruggs Lake so we are waiting, but will vote shortly. 3 of us here. 3 del positions. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @RQDammit I'm at the caucuses. Woo! #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Ruggs Lake votes in three delegates to county . 2 Santorum, 1 Paul (me). #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • The other two from my precinct were a nice couple. Very friendly. They liked Santorum. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • The other two from Ruggs Lake left. Our precinct caucus is over. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • The bigger precincts are still going through multiple rounds of voting to select delegates. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @osbournequinn They have not reported results from the straw poll yet. Waiting to see if they do. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • My precinct, Ruggs Lake, elected 2 dels to county caucus that support Santorum, and 1 (me) that supports Paul. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Lots of people leaving. Don't know if they will reconvene the whole group to give straw poll results. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @seifert5 Best Republican still in the race. Reserving thoughts on November for November. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @osbournequinn Will be good to see what he (and Rand) end up doing as time goes on. :-) #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Confirmed with chair that the whole group will not reconvene and no straw poll results will be reported here. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Still a bunch of precincts doing their thing. But probably 2/3 of people who were here gone now. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • The 4th person from Ruggs Lake who did the straw poll but didn't stay for the caucus didn't actually "vote". #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @hurricaneoasis Saw the del tally for my precinct. Just the meaningless straw poll they are not counting yet. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @seifert5 Don't know reason. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Sticking around longer just to see if anything random happens. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @hurricaneoasis Yes, I know. Affects media narrative, which in turn affects future contests. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @hurricaneoasis Uh, effects. Darn iPhone. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Guesstimate on total attendance at this site: About 200. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • 95% confidence interval an attendance here: 150 to 250. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • 95% confidence interval on attendance here: 150 to 250. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @Marcooo8a Heh, they sounded pretty solid on Santorum. Next step county caucus. Long way to Tampa. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Room getting empty. Just a handful of precincts still working. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • New pple watching me 4 caucus livetweet check out http://t.co/m39aSYhz for more election commentary and analysis. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • @Marcooo8a I am conflicted on November for now. Will decide once it is clear what all the choices will be. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • I think only 1 precinct is still doing anything. Bunch of other people just milling around. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • 26 people signed Ron Paul supporter sheet at Ron Paul table. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • That would be somewhere between 10% and 17% for Paul based on my total attendance est. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • I think everyone is done. Chairs are being put away. A few people still milling and talking in small groups. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • Someone asked on counting. Told ballots are not counted here. Straw poll signups go to county to get counted. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • At county there are counting observers from the campaigns. Folks who want are free to also go there to observe. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • All that is left is cleaning up. So wrapping up live tweeting and going home. Check out http://t.co/X3c9bC9V. #wacaucus #ruggslake #ld44 #
  • RT @gregpalmer: Sadface. RT @pete_schultz: Every balloon you see floating into the atmosphere represents the worst day in a toddler's life. #
  • MT @MysteryPollster: We unveiled a redesigned, much improved poll chart & dashboard today. Check it out: http://t.co/kn2IIx3R #
  • RT @delong: Why Republicans are in a box: their base, and nobody else, thinks unmarried people shouldn’t have sex http://t.co/a8svFNz3 #
  • Reading – Measuring Polarization through Chamber and Party Medians over Time (voteview) http://t.co/zExuuqh8 #
  • Reading – Taking an Axe to a Lorax (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/4a5atnSJ #

Live Tweeting my Local Washington State Republican Caucuses

I am planning today to go to the Republican Caucuses here in Washington state.  Doors open in about 30 minutes, you have to be signed in about 60 minutes from now, and 90 minutes from now the “action” should get started.

Assuming I am able to, I will be live tweeting as things progress.  The tweets will appear on abulsme.com at a few minutes before 00:00 UTC in daily summary form, or you can follow me on Twitter to get updates in real time:

@abulsme

If I understand correctly, there will be a straw poll vote (which will be what is reported first by the press, but doest really matter), then there will be speeches and such, and then delegates will be picked for the county conventions.  Those delegates will state their preferences most likely, but will not be bound in any way at the next level.  Washington has 40 delegates, 30 will be winner take all 3 at a time by congressional district, and 10 will be proportional based on the state wide vote.

For the record, I plan on expressing my preferences (I hesitate to call what happens at a caucus actual voting) for Ron Paul.  Of the four remaining Republican candidates, he is my preference by far.  In terms of caucus participation, I am a Republican for the day, but at this point I am not ready to commit to what I will do in November.  We shall see.  And there will likely be other choices besides the Republican and Democrat, some of which may be interesting.

Electoral College: Montana back to Strong Romney

Map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.  This map reflects Obama vs Romney.  If any other candidate takes the lead in the Republican delegate race we’ll switch to making maps for them.

For a short time Romney’s last five poll average had dropped to less than a 10% lead in Montana, but the latest poll pushes that average back over 10%, so we color the state bright red again.  Since either way Montana is not close to being a swing state (although the margin was only 2.3% in the 2008 election!) this does’t effect the overall summary of the race.

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 291 247
Current Status 210 328
Obama Best Case 159 379

This does represent the first state to move in Romney’s direction in a couple of weeks, which can be seen in our trend chart:

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.