This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-18 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: More Updates for Alabama and Hawaii

Chart from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination. If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Looks like we finally have final results for all the delegates from Alabama, and what will (maybe?) be a final update for Hawaii as well. All of this from Green Papers of course.

In Alabama we add 4 more delegates for Santorum and 2 more for Gingrich. This brings the total for non-Super delegates in Alabama to 22 Santorum, 14 Gingrich, 11 Romney. (Santorum also has one of the three superdelegates for the state, the other two haven’t endorsed yet.)

In Hawaii, the update we listed on March 15th is reversed. At that time a delegate was removed from the Paul column and given to Romney. Today that delegate appears to go back into the Paul column. This leaves Hawaii at 9 Romney, 5 Santorum, 3 Paul. So +1 Paul, -1 Romney.

So the net for today’s update: Santorum +4, Gingrich +2, Paul +1, Romney -1.

This gives changes for the “% of remaining needed to win” number as follows:

  • Romney: 49.13% -> 49.43%
  • Santorum: 68.71% -> 68.72%
  • Gingrich: 74.60% -> 74.79%
  • Paul: 80.65% -> 80.94%

Notice that everybody goes up. This is a small number of delegates of course, and pretty small changes to the numbers, but nobody here actually improved their position in terms of being able to get to 1144. Of the net 6 new delegates today, Santorum got 4. So 66.67%. Which is quite a healthy percentage. Overwhelmingly wins the day. But he would have had to have done even better to actually be on a pace to catch up with Romney. Lots of splits like this lead toward nobody getting 1144.

But this was a minor update day with a small number of delegates. We’ll see what the real contests get us over the coming week.

This American Life Retraction

Since I posted about the original story when it aired, it is only fair that I post the retraction in the same way. This American Life had done a story in January which I called at the time “particularly captivating and a little disturbing”. Well, it turns out it was mostly lies. Well, the details were lies. The narrative from Mike Daisey was mostly fabricated. Many of the underlying concerns about working conditions, etc had roots in the truth, but a lot of the details and specific incidents were just plain made up. The retraction is almost as powerful as the original episode. It is also well worth listening to.

This American Life #460:
Originally Aired 03.16.2012

Regrettably, we have discovered that one of our most popular episodes was partially fabricated. This week, we devote the entire hour to detailing the errors in “Mr. Daisey Goes to the Apple Factory,” Mike Daisey’s story about visiting Foxconn, an Apple supplier factory in China. Rob Schmitz, a reporter for Marketplace, raises doubts on much of Daisey’s story.

Looks like they aren’t allowing embedding for this episode, at least not yet, so you’ll need to click through above to listen.

I find this kind of thing absolutely infuriating. When someone has something very real and a story that deserves to be told, an issue that needs to get out there. Something important that people should know about. But then they decide to make it really compelling they need to do more. So they embellish or make things up to fill out the picture. Or they take ethical shortcuts like the Peter Gleick Heartland Scandal earlier this year. Or for that matter the Dan Rather George Bush Memos. This kind of stuff is all frustrating. Their might be an underlying truth worth knowing, but when people lie and fabricate and misrepresent, it completely overwhelms any of that underlying truth and puts everything in doubt.