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@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-15 (UTC)

  • Reading – Romney: I’ve Won the ‘Kind of Important’ States (Katrina Trinko) #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Updates for Alabama and Hawaii

Chart from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.   Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Some minor updates today as results get finalized in the last round of states.  In Alabama 3 of the 9 non-super delegates that Green Papers still had as TBD have been determined…  2 for Santorum, 1 for Romney.  Meanwhile, in Hawaii the Green Papers estimate gets revised from 9 Romney, 5 Santorum, 3 Paul to 10 Romney, 5 Santorum, 2 Paul.  So in Hawaii +1 for Romney, -1 for Paul.

Net for the day:  +2 Romney, +2 Santorum, -1 Paul

There are still 6 non-super delegates in Alabama in the TBD category, so we haven’t heard the last from Alabama.

Since this is only a very small number of delegates, the effects are very small.  In terms of “% of remaining needed to win”:

  • Romney:  49.21% -> 49.17%
  • Santorum:  68.65% -> 68.66%
  • Gingrich: 74.38% -> 74.55%
  • Paul:  80.33% -> 80.59%

Obviously this changes nothing at all about the analysis of the state of the race that was presented yesterday.