This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-07 (UTC)

  • VA too close to call? Really??? #
  • Ok. That is better. What took so long? (CNN calls VA for Romney) #
  • RT @joshtpm: CNN currently showing horrible visualization called "virtual convention". Someone hold me. I'm scared. #
  • RT @googlepolitics: Our #SuperTuesday map with real-time @AP results is up & ready for action http://t.co/1rGp292C #
  • MT @Kimsfirst: @LarrySabato reason 4 delay VA call: 3d wave exit poll data showed Romney lead in low single digits. Decision desks noticed. #
  • RT @CNBC: NBC News source: Newt Gingrich to start receiving Secret Service protection tomorrow. #
  • RT @daveweigel: That SCREEECH sound you hear is reporters canceling trips to other primaries. #over #
  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Ohio polls close. CNN exit polls shows Romney winning 40% to 36% over Santorum. #
  • Reading – Poll Analysis: Santorum improves, Obama still leads (Darryl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/KWSEsGN1 #
  • RT @davidfrum: This is not looking like the Romney blow-out it needs to be. #
  • RT @jbplainblog: Really doesn't need to be RT @davidfrum: This is not looking like the Romney blow-out it needs to be. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: Who's going to make up some new reason that the GOP nomination isn't over yet? #
  • RT @RollCallAbby: Brilliant producing CNN/Team Feist with the @SarahPalinUSA get #
  • RT @RealClearScott: Roger Ailes, call your office. #PalinOnCNN #
  • Reading – Poll Analysis: Obama has solid lead over Romney (Darryl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/oj1xhVVa #
  • Reading – Would Democrats have supported extrajudicial killings under Attorney General John Ashcroft? (Ezra Klein) http://t.co/F0ywfJRm #
  • RT @FHQ: Please stop with the "Romney needs a blow out" mumbo jumbo. Delegates, delegates, delegates. #supertuesday #
  • RT @DemConWatch: Romney rubs it in, adds new superdelegate from MT. Romney 19, Gingrich 3, Santorum 2, Paul 1 http://t.co/pRyYtacs #
  • MT @FHQ: More things change, the more they stay the same: Candidates win where expected & Romney's del lead grows. #supertuesday #
  • RT @AntDeRosa: Newt Gingrich will hunt you down and debate you Lincoln style #
  • RT @daveweigel: Romney has won all 11 of Virginia's districts, will get all 49 delegates #
  • MT @FHQ: 46. 3 of those are unbound automatic delegates. @daveweigel: Romney has won all of Virginia's districts, will get all 49 delegates #
  • RT @daveweigel: Oops: Don't trust me! Paul wins VA-03! 3 delegates for Ron Paul, 46 for Mitt #
  • RT @DemConWatch: 43 for Mitt. 3 Supers RT @daveweigel: Oops: Don't trust me! Paul wins VA-03! 3 delegates for Ron Paul, 46 for Mitt #
  • 17 min for me RT @daveweigel: Expecting it to take a half hour or so for people to notice I corrected my VA-03 goof #
  • Watching – The Most Astounding Fact – Neil DeGrasse Tyson (MaxSchlick) http://t.co/qC0ty2Mr #
  • RT @Redistrict: Surprisingly weak showings for Romney in major metro OH precincts…things looking great for Santorum at this point. #
  • RT @daveweigel: This Saturday, Santorum wins Kansas and Someone Who Isn't Romney wins MS/AL. Woohoo! #
  • Woo? RT @daveweigel: I think Randall Terry actually gets a delegate from OK-2. He's at 26% to Obama's 42% #
  • MT @Taniel: In terms of del count, whether Santorum crosses 20% in GA is more important – and more suspensful at moment – than who wins OH. #
  • MT @FHQ: Yowsa! Romney picks up an actual delegate to the convention in WY (Laramie Co) by just 2 votes over Santorum http://t.co/Emp5M5Nx #
  • RT @FHQ: Ohio, meh. Close win, close loss = delegate win for Romney. http://t.co/CPquPjrU #SuperTuesday #
  • Reading – Updated Apple TV with 1080p Video Support to Maintain $99 Price Tag (Eric Slivka) http://t.co/zimtPRRf #
  • RT @blakehounshell: Sounds like we're headed for a recount in Ohio. #
  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Rick Perry now is up to 6,108 votes in Ohio. More than three times the difference between Santorum and Romney. #
  • MT @chucktodd: NBC delegate projection has Romney up to 217, which wd translate to a majority of all deleagates avail tonight. #
  • RT @RyanLizza: The big delegate haul Romney will get from MA, ID, and VA seems to be an under-reported story. #
  • RT @fivethirtyeight: Santorum Falling Just Short of Ga. Delegate Threshold http://t.co/ZSPZB76f #
  • RT @alexlundry: RT @presjpolk: Mitt Romney laughs all the way to the delegate bank as people wax on about narratives. #
  • MT @FHQ: Keeping Romney from 1144 argument will work as long as Santorum/Gingrich keep winning (the South) http://t.co/AzkwNU7z #
  • MT @DemConWatch: AP Projection RT @HotlineJosh: RT @dandrezner: This. RT @ZekeJMiller: NYT projecting Romney wins 17 del in OH, Santorum 9. #
  • Reading – The iPad HD Sucks (MG Siegler) http://t.co/dKPqGSO1 #
  • RT @MysteryPollster: So Romney won the most votes, states, delegates, the "key" state (OH) and grew delegate lead by ~ 125. Not a bad night. #
  • RT @EdEspinoza: MS primary 3/13: if a candidate wins over 50%, delegates become winner-take-all. Could be a much needed bump for Santorum. #
  • RT @KattyKayBBC: Mitt Romney's favorability rating is even lower than Bob Dole's at this stage. I didn't know that was even possible. #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: First Round of Super Tuesday Results

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  Rather than the date on the x-axis, we show the “% of Delegates Already Allocated” as this better represents the progress through the race.  Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

So, Super Tuesday happened.  As of this update, Green Papers has “called” 385 of the 419 delegates available from the Super Tuesday contests.  There are 34 delegates that haven’t been determined yet that will result in updates later, but of the ones we do know, the estimates for Super Tuesday contests are:  Romney 208, Santorum 84, Gingrich 72, Paul 21.  Romney also picked up a Superdelegate, bringing the total for the day to Romney 209, Santorum 84, Gingrich 72, Paul 21.

Compared to the Sabato Crystal Ball projections which we used to game out Super Tuesday over the weekend, Romney performed better than expectations, as did Gingrich.  Santorum and Paul underperformed compared to those predictions.  In any case, where does this put us…

Bottom line, Romney is the big winner today, and this may be the start of him actually pulling away and heading toward the nomination, but he is still not out of the woods in terms of the danger of being blocked from 1144.  Lets look at the details.

The situation for Santorum, Gingrich and Paul is essentially what I mapped out in the gaming Super Tuesday post.  To paraphrase what I said there, it is now absolutely undeniably clear (although the trend was obvious even before today) that none of these three guys are on a path to the nomination.  Of the three, Santorum is doing the best, but with today’s numbers, to be on a path to win, he would need to now get  64.5% of the remaining delegates, compared to the 21.1% he has gotten so far.  For this to even come into the realm of possibility, Gingrich and Paul would both have to stop getting delegates, Santorum would have to pick up all of their support, AND something would need to happen to cause support for Romney to plummet.  This is a very unlikely sequence of events.  It isn’t going to happen.

Oh, I guess I should also note that Gingrich pulled back ahead of Paul for 3rd place.

The remaining question is: “Are the non-Romney’s collectively still in a position to potentially block Romney from getting to 1144?”  If after today, Romney was under 50% of the total delegates, and his “% of remaining needed to win” was heading upward or flat, this is a possibility that would be looking like it was still very much in play.  But Romney exceeded the 49.7% of delegates he needed in order to be on track toward 1144, and did it by a decent margin.  Of the delegates in today’s total, he picked up 209 of 386, or 54.1%.  This reduced his “% of remaining needed to win” from 49.7% to 48.5%.  That means to block, the non-Romney’s collectively need to be getting 51.5% of the delegates, compared to the 46.9% they have managed so far.  So they have to do better than they have been so far, and by a non-trivial margin.  And they have do do this even though it is obvious none of them can win outright.  It has to be about stopping Romney.

Now, the rest of March has a bunch of states that are supposed to be relatively good for the non-Romneys.  So the non-Romney’s managing to get 51.5% in the next few state is very much within the realm of possibility.  After that we hit more Romney friendly states in April.  The thing to watch for in the upcoming states is not who wins the popular vote, or even the delegate count.  The question will be: “Is Romney continuing to get enough delegates to avoid being blocked?”  Right now, that magic number is 48.2%.  As long as he is getting 48.2% of the delegates (or more) then he is marching his way toward the nomination.  If he gets less than that, then blocking will remain possible a little bit longer.  If the rest of March really is friendly to the non-Romneys, we may see that Romney’s “% needed to win” starts heading back up a bit before Romney hits friendly states again and starts fully pulling away.  As long as we see that happening, blocking Romney is still a possibility.  And indeed, if Romney is damaged by the contests in March and his April states start looking not so good after all, then blocking starts looking more real again.

But Romney’s “% of remaining needed to win” is the smallest it has been so far, and none of the other candidates have realistic shots at winning, only a shot at blocking that relies on them continuing to win delegates even though it is obvious they can’t win, so Romney is in a pretty good position right now.  Watch that line though.  Until it starts heading downward decisively, Romney hasn’t got it wrapped up just yet.

So what is next?  Well, first, the last 34 delegates from Super Tuesday (they are from Georgia, Ohio and Tennessee).  Then on Sunday we have Kansas (40), Guam (9), Northern Marianas (9), Virgin Islands (9).  Then Tuesday we have Alabama (50), Mississippi (40), Hawaii (20), American Samoa (9).  And then it goes on and on…