This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



2012 Republican Delegate Count: More Updates for Alabama and Hawaii

Chart from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination. If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. Note that these numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Looks like we finally have final results for all the delegates from Alabama, and what will (maybe?) be a final update for Hawaii as well. All of this from Green Papers of course.

In Alabama we add 4 more delegates for Santorum and 2 more for Gingrich. This brings the total for non-Super delegates in Alabama to 22 Santorum, 14 Gingrich, 11 Romney. (Santorum also has one of the three superdelegates for the state, the other two haven’t endorsed yet.)

In Hawaii, the update we listed on March 15th is reversed. At that time a delegate was removed from the Paul column and given to Romney. Today that delegate appears to go back into the Paul column. This leaves Hawaii at 9 Romney, 5 Santorum, 3 Paul. So +1 Paul, -1 Romney.

So the net for today’s update: Santorum +4, Gingrich +2, Paul +1, Romney -1.

This gives changes for the “% of remaining needed to win” number as follows:

  • Romney: 49.13% -> 49.43%
  • Santorum: 68.71% -> 68.72%
  • Gingrich: 74.60% -> 74.79%
  • Paul: 80.65% -> 80.94%

Notice that everybody goes up. This is a small number of delegates of course, and pretty small changes to the numbers, but nobody here actually improved their position in terms of being able to get to 1144. Of the net 6 new delegates today, Santorum got 4. So 66.67%. Which is quite a healthy percentage. Overwhelmingly wins the day. But he would have had to have done even better to actually be on a pace to catch up with Romney. Lots of splits like this lead toward nobody getting 1144.

But this was a minor update day with a small number of delegates. We’ll see what the real contests get us over the coming week.

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