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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Louisiana

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

So, Santorum has a “big win” in Louisiana.  But, unfortunately for him, not big enough.  Green Papers’ Louisiana Results give 13 delegates to Santorum and 7 to Romney.  Gingrich and Paul get nothing.  Louisiana also has 26 more delegates that will be determined by other means.  (Note that there is some question on interpretation of the delegate rules.  @FHQ says 10 Santotum, 5 Romney and some uncommitted delegates.  We use Green Papers as our source, and they will update if it becomes clear their interpretation of the rules was wrong.)

So with a 13-7 split, that is 65% Santorum.  To actually be on a pace to catch up and win, he needed to get 71.8% of the delegates.  Didn’t happen.  Thus with his “big win” Santorum still moves closer to mathematical elimination.  That is some win!

Of course, Romney also didn’t get the delegate levels he needed to be on the pace he needs.  He needed 47.1% of the delegates.  The 35% he gets with his 7 delegates is well below that.

So, it’s an “everybody loses!” day.  Bottom line is that Louisiana doesn’t change much.  The three non-Romney’s are racing inevitably toward elimination.  They are just too far behind to catch up absent something as major as Romney dropping out of the race…  which I don’t think Romney is thinking about doing at this point.  Meanwhile, Romney is in a position to eventually win just by continuing to collect delegates at the same pace he has been.  Romney has collected 53% of the delegates so far.  If he just keeps chugging at those margins, he’ll get to 1144 eventually.  But…  the non-Romney’s collectively have gotten 47% of the delegates.  If they can up that to 53%, then they can still collect enough delegates to block Romney.

47% to 53% is a big move in a political race.  But it is still not out of the realm of the possible.  (It is getting close though.)  A few big slips by Romney.  One of the non-Romney’s doing something really impressive.  It COULD happen.  It is unlikely though.  As I’ve said before here, as it becomes clear that none of the non-Romney’s can actually win, it will be harder and harder for them to actually get delegates.  So it is far more likely that the percentage of delegates the non-Romneys can manage will decline as we  go forward.

“% of remaining needed to win” update based on today’s numbers:

  • Romney:  47.1% -> 47.3%
  • Santorum:  71.8% -> 71.9%
  • Gingrich: 79.6% -> 80.9%
  • Paul: 85.8% -> 87.2%

We’re still not quite to the half way mark.  46.5% of the delegates allocated (or estimated) at this point.

Next up:  DC, Maryland, Wisconsin on April 3rd.  All winner take all states, so likely to have a bigger impact.

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