- 01:10:11 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% https://t.co/8pMsM47kIB
- 01:10:16 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
- 01:12:55 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in FL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 45% https://t.co/EwDyLeChFT
- 01:12:59 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in FL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 45% to Johnson 2% to Stein 1%
- 01:13:11 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/EwDyLeChFT
- 01:26:00 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 346 to Trump 192 -> Clinton 317 to Trump 221 https://t.co/9XMpuasOg8
- 01:40:47 Poll Added: PPP w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% https://t.co/FJtm7nVH1x
- 01:40:52 Full 4P results: PPP w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
- 01:42:11 Poll Added: PPP [2] in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48% to Trump 47% https://t.co/7wEvzifRKC
- 01:47:49 Poll Added: Howey w/3P in IN from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 38% to Trump 43% https://t.co/jS6vVxFeAF
- 01:47:54 Full 3P results: Howey w/3P in IN from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 38% to Trump 43% to Johnson 11%
- 01:50:53 Poll Added: UNF [2] in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 40% https://t.co/CkwJNhq0V2
- 01:51:05 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/CkwJNhq0V2
- 01:52:52 Poll Added: UNF w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% https://t.co/CG6IHArWwD
- 01:52:57 Full 4P results: UNF w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-09-27 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% to Johnson 6% to Stein 3%
- 02:13:43 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 317 to Trump 221 -> Clinton 346 to Trump 192 https://t.co/r9bdCjeqD0
- 02:16:13 Retweeted @ViviVacca 02:15:51 @ElecCollPolls you mean from weak Trump to weak Clinton in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 02:17:33 .@ViviVacca I added two polls to my data tonight. The first one moved FL from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump. The second one moved it back. in reply to ViviVacca
- 02:29:55 Poll Added: Suffolk w/4P in NH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 43.80% to Trump 42.00% https://t.co/mjCAUXaiij
- 02:30:00 Full 4P results: Suffolk w/4P in NH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 43.80% to Trump 42.00% to Johnson 5.20% to Stein 0.80%
- 02:44:35 Poll Added: DMR w/4P in IA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 39% to Trump 43% https://t.co/tYSPMHKyYh
- 02:44:40 Full 4P results: DMR w/4P in IA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 39% to Trump 43% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
- 02:49:02 Poll Added: Hampton in VA from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 34% https://t.co/wciOaW3gkq
- 02:53:21 Poll Added: Gravis in CO from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 40% to Trump 40% https://t.co/1R3ETDFZcx
- 02:57:39 Poll Added: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 31% to Trump 39% https://t.co/PaiWY1usWH
- 02:57:44 Full 4P results: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 31% to Trump 39% to Johnson 9% to Stein 4%
- 02:59:13 Poll Added: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 34% to Trump 37% https://t.co/K8BPf1aZQt
- 02:59:18 Full 4P results: Ivan Moore w/4P in AK from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 34% to Trump 37% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
- 03:05:09 Poll Added: Strategies360 [2] in WA from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 50% to Trump 33% https://t.co/nvlUPUI2AL
- 03:06:45 Poll Added: Strategies360 w/4P [2] in WA from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 47% to Trump 31% https://t.co/mtZoiuYG4X
- 03:06:50 Full 4P results: Strategies360 w/4P [2] in WA from 2016-09-29 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 47% to Trump 31% to Johnson 10% to Stein 4%
- 03:12:40 Poll Added: EPIC-MRA [2] in MI from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 46% to Trump 36% https://t.co/nALhgAHXGp
- 03:14:15 Poll Added: EPIC-MRA w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43% to Trump 32% https://t.co/AVZhXZZK2c
- 03:14:20 Full 4P results: EPIC-MRA w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 43% to Trump 32% to Johnson 10% to Stein 3%
- 03:14:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/AVZhXZZK2c
- 03:21:09 Retweeted @V3CK3R 03:20:43 @ElecCollPolls just clarify, these polls are indications of the situation before this newest Trump meltdown? in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 03:23:04 .@V3CK3R I’m in the middle of a round of adding polls but at the moment the most recent polls I have ended Thursday. https://t.co/bQXcR7BIif in reply to V3CK3R
- 03:26:37 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 4.5% in MI -> Clinton by 5.9% in MN https://t.co/j8x3JfsLn2
- 03:26:37 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 256 to Trump 282 -> Clinton 272 to Trump 266 https://t.co/j8x3JfsLn2
- 03:42:50 Poll Added: Predictive Insights w/4P in AZ from 2016-09-28 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 42% to Trump 42% https://t.co/4TXiEiarwL
- 03:42:55 Full 4P results: Predictive Insights w/4P in AZ from 2016-09-28 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 42% to Trump 42% to Johnson 5% to Stein 1%
- 03:43:08 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/4TXiEiarwL
- 03:56:19 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 346 to Trump 192 -> Clinton 357 to Trump 181 https://t.co/onKlLySUOZ
- 05:42:03 Poll Added: Vanderbilt w/4P in TN from 2016-09-19 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 33% to Trump 44% https://t.co/SETouhn8mY
- 05:42:08 Full 4P results: Vanderbilt w/4P in TN from 2016-09-19 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 33% to Trump 44% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%
- 05:46:10 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P in MD from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 63% to Trump 27% https://t.co/MKdN2xRnjj
- 05:46:14 Full 4P results: WaPo w/4P in MD from 2016-09-27 to 2016-09-30 – Clinton 63% to Trump 27% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
- 05:50:24 Poll Added: WNEU w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 58% to Trump 26% https://t.co/Qo8CP4nSux
- 05:50:29 Full 4P results: WNEU w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 58% to Trump 26% to Johnson 7% to Stein 4%
- 05:51:55 Poll Added: WNEU [2] in MA from 2016-09-24 to 2016-10-03 – Clinton 65% to Trump 30% https://t.co/RHYqMF0liX
- 06:05:45 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 39% https://t.co/u7BnwunLQR
- 06:05:50 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-04 – Clinton 47% to Trump 39% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
- 06:26:47 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42% to Trump 39% https://t.co/X43wmRMLnW
- 06:26:52 Full 4P results: TargetSmart w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42% to Trump 39% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
- 06:28:23 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/Lean w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43% to Trump 40% https://t.co/AUrDAkm5uk
- 06:28:28 Full 4P results: TargetSmart w/Lean w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43% to Trump 40% to Johnson 8% to Stein 2%
- 06:30:05 Poll Added: TargetSmart [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/SyGneMnjOL
- 06:31:37 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/Lean [4] in OH from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46% to Trump 43% https://t.co/sJriuIpJJf
- 06:39:18 Poll Added: GSG w/4P in IL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 50.0% to Trump 33.0% https://t.co/WD077P6Szs
- 06:39:23 Full 4P results: GSG w/4P in IL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 50.0% to Trump 33.0% to Johnson 6.0% to Stein 2.0%
- 08:59:54 Round of polls complete. New data: WI/FL/OH/IN/NH/IA/VA/CO/AK/WA/MI/AZ/TN/MD/MA/OR/IL. Notable changes in MI/AZ. @ElectionGraphs post later.
- 18:35:29 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:35:17 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump Path to Victory Evaporates https://t.co/Dl5Z1ackzB
States with new poll data added since the last update: Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Alaska, Washington, Michigan, Arizona, Tennessee, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Illinois. Notable changes in: Michigan and Arizona. National SummaryAs of this update, the most recent polls included in the state averages ended on Thursday. That means that as of yet we do not have any polling that would show the impact (or lack thereof) of Friday’s release of 2005 era Trump recordings that have dominated the news since then. But even before those revelations, Trump was dropping quickly in the aftermath of the first debate and the leak of tax documents. This process continues:
Looking at the charts:
Clinton expands her expected win by taking the lead in Arizona. But perhaps more notable at this point is that her lead in Michigan expands to 5.9%, moving it from my “Weak Clinton” category into “Strong Clinton”. Without Michigan, Trump no longer has a path to victory. He can win all the states he is ahead in, plus all the states where he is close (North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada) and he would still come up short, losing to Clinton 272 to 266. In order to win, Trump would need to not only pull all of those close states over to his side, but also reverse his fortunes in Michigan or other states where he is currently not just behind, but significantly behind. Now, with all this, Trump’s numbers are actually still slightly better than he was doing at Clinton’s high water mark in mid-August. Trump came back from that and moved things to the point where he had almost tied the race. Can’t he do that again? Well, look carefully at that recovery. From Trump’s low point, it took about a month to reach the point where he had almost tied the race. A month. We now have 30.3 days left until polls start to close on election day. Many people have already voted. Early voting is ramping up quickly in state after state. In order to catch up and win, Trump would have to have a recovery that was more significant… and quicker… than the successes he managed in August and September. For any reversal, Trump has to pull out of the tailspin first… and the polls don’t yet reflect the latest major campaign events. Things are likely to get worse for Trump before they get better. If they get better. He is running out of time. It may already be too late. As I write this the 2nd Presidential debate is in just a few hours. Hang on tight. State DetailsHere are the charts for the states whose movements caused the summary changes: Weak Trump to Weak Clinton
Four of the five polls in the average right now have Clinton tied or ahead in Arizona. All three post debate polls do. Clinton’s lead in the average though is a very narrow 0.3% though. Trump could very well take the lead again with the next poll. Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton
Movement away from Trump is visible starting in mid September. Trump’s debate performance did nothing to change this trend. Clinton now holds a fairly substantial lead in Michigan. For more information…This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner… what else? Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. After a short bit on Hurricane Matthew, we dive into Trump’s taxes, then the Veep debate. We had originally ended the show there, but after the big Trump news Friday, we came back and recorded a bonus segment on the 2005 tape and the beginnings of the aftermath. The situation is still unfolding, but we had to stop and actually get the show out! Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Show Details: Recorded 2016-10-07
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch. Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link) Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link) Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link) Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe. States with new poll data added since the last update: All of them. Multiple times. There are additional new polls since I had to cut things off for this update as well. Those will be in the next update. National SummaryThe last week of polls has been devastating to Trump’s position. In the last update we were just starting to see the reaction from the first debate. With this batch the post-debate polling continued to roll in, and while there were a couple of minor moves toward Trump, the net change in this update was a dramatic move toward Clinton:
Looking at the charts:
The previous update mentioned some Trump losses starting a week or two before the debate. With a lot more polls filling in the time period right before the debate as well as right after, it now looks like those losses were reversed before the debate. In the time after the debate though, all three indicators on the chart have moved in Clinton’s direction. The race is now essentially back to where it was at the beginning of September. We’re not yet back at Clinton’s high point from August, but it is getting close.
The tipping point chart is even more stark. As with the electoral college view, it looks like Trump’s mid-September declines were reversed by debate time, but after the debate everything falls off a cliff. Most of Trump’s gains from August and September are gone. Right before the debate he topped out with Clinton only ahead in the tipping point metric by 0.4%. Clinton now leads by 4.5%. The tipping point state is Michigan. Clinton only has to increase her lead slightly there to not just take Michigan out of reach for Trump, but the Presidency. What we are seeing in the polling results right now at this point probably fully factors in the debate itself. But we are just starting to see the impact from Trump’s “worst week in presidential campaign history ” that started with the debate, continued with his attacks on Alicia Machado, and ended with the leak of some of his tax information. The events of that week are not yet fully baked in. And of course, the polls do not yet reflect the VP debate, or more importantly, the 2005 Trump video that was leaked on Friday. It is hard to imagine the events of the last few days NOT having an impact on the polls. And the next debate is coming up. It should be interesting. If you were not planning on tuning in before, change your plans. 31.7 days left until the first actual election results start coming in. State DetailsA lot of states moved in order to produce the summary results above. For those interested in looking at the state by state details, they are below: Weak Trump to Weak Clinton
Moving out of reach for Trump
Moving out of reach for Clinton
Moving into reach for Trump
States that changed categories but then moved right back again
For more information…This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
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