This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Palm Bay on Fire

I would be negligent if I didn’t mention that Palm Bay, FL (the town I lived from the end of December 2004 until I moved to Bellevue, WA in 2006)… is on fire.

$10 Million In Damage As Fires Continue To Burn

A staggering 162 homes were damaged or destroyed by wildfires that burned through Palm Bay Monday and Tuesday. Officials said that that number would likely grow.

Officials first reported more than 60 of the homes were so badly damaged they can’t be lived in any longer. That number was later dropped to 40. Preliminary estimates put the dollar figure for the destruction at $9.6 million. Assessment teams continued to survey damaged areas as firefighters battled flare-ups. In all, nearly 10,000 acres burned in Brevard County.

I’m not in regular contact any more with anybody who still lives in that area (although I think Amy might be), but good luck to anybody who is still there.

I gather the exact area our house was in has not been directly hit yet, but that the fires are not that far away.

West Virginia Delegate Results

So, we actually already have final delegate results for West Virginia. No waiting several days this time! Now, my prediction was 20 delegates for Clinton and 8 for Obama. The results were… 20 delegates for Clinton and 8 for Obama. Woo! Go me!

Anyway, this gives Clinton a ratio for the West Virginia primary of 71.4%. If you recall from yesterday the ratio she needed in order to be on pace to catch up and win was 70.8%. So she made it! Woo! Hillary makes her life easier rather than harder (for at least a day!). Go Hillary!!! Plus, not only that, she picked up another pledged delegate from one of the old states doing adjustments. Go Hillary! Woo! Woo!

Oh, wait, what is this over here? Oh, some superdelegate announcements. Seven of them. All for Obama. Oops. That will change things.

So, the net results for the day are 21 delegates fro Clinton, 15 for Obama. That gives Hillary only 58.3% of the delegates for the day, which is way BELOW where she needs to be in order to be catching up.

So after her huge overwhelming victory in West Virginia the end result is that the road to her winning is yet again MORE DIFFICULT than it was before this victory. And of the rest of the calendar this was her best shot.

This will put the percentage she needs out of reach in Kentucky. And given you have Oregon (where Obama is way ahead) on the same day as Kentucky there is no way that day will end up helping Clinton. The only question now is when Clinton will call this a day. Maybe after Kentucky and Oregon? Maybe? Or will she hold out until June 3rd when everybody has voted?

Updated stats:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1884, Clinton 1718, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

(A couple new delegates have been added, so the number to win goes up by one from 2025.)

There are 429 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 142 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 308 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 33.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)

Clinton needs 71.8% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)

Oh yeah, and McCain picks up 9 more delegates.