This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Time Machine Drive Full

I am using a 500GB Drive for my Time Machine drive, which is the same size as my main drive… rather than what is recommended, which is a Time Machine drive that is double the size of the drive you are backing up. I finally got Time Machine Successfully working on February 17th. My main drive has been between 80% and 90% full the entire time. Today for the first time, Time Machine reported that the backup drive was full and it had to delete the oldest backup (the one from February 17th). The oldest is now from February 24th.

A bit more than two months, even with just that little bit of free space. That isn’t too bad.

I still want to pick up a 1GB drive though. With the “double the main drive” recommendation, I could probably keep a full year or more of backups…

I also need to do something about that 90% full thing. That is a bit too high.

Hmmm, emptying the trash only got me to 85%. I was hoping for more. I’ll have to go looking for more things I am OK getting rid of this weekend or something.

Electoral College: Obama strengthens in New Jersey

Once again surprising because of the bad time Obama has been having lately, another state moves further in his direction. In my “last five polls average” New Jersey now moves from “Leaning Obama” to “Weak Obama” as his lead in that state goes over 5%. This takes New Jersey out of the “could go either way” category and removes the possibility of winning New Jersey from McCain’s best case scenario.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 330, Obama 208
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260

You see those two “best case” scenarios? Now, admittedly, I’m still allowing DC to go either way since there have not yet been any polls for DC, and that is not realistic, but still, at the moment this race is almost completely symmetrical. This is a completely tied race at the moment.

Now, this is with McCain having a locked up nomination and a clear field, and the Democrats still locked in mortal battle, damaging each other further every day. So the dynamics of this will probably change significantly once the Democrats come together.

But for now… tied ball game.

Seven More Supers Fall Off the Wall

Seven more superdelegates today. 4 for Clinton, 3 for Obama. Hey, Clinton got more delegates today! Oh, but wait, she got 57.14% of today’s delegates, which is less than the 61.15% she needed to be on pace to win, so once again, her path to the nomination still just becomes harder, even though she got more delegates today. She now needs 61.19% of the remaining delegates. But remember, the math doesn’t matter, it is all about momentum! Math is hard!

Updated stats:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1730, Clinton 1593, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.7%, Edwards 0.6%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 706 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 295 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 432 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 41.8% of the remaining delegates to win.

Clinton needs 61.2% of the remaining delegates to win.

(Still no update on the final 2 Democratic delegates from the Pennsylvania primaries, or on ANY of the delegates from the Republican Pennsylvania primaries.)